*These NBA computer picks are done the morning of game day, adjust picks should spreads and lineups change.
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NEW YORK @ PHILADELPHIA
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 4
NEW YORK LEADS 3-1
Over/Under Prediction: Over 208.5 Total Points
Both New York Knicks and Philadelphia have shown trended to higher-scoring matchups in recent matchups where the Knicks’ last 7 games as underdogs went Overs. The Knicks have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 18 games, indicating an offensive prowess that could contribute to a higher-scoring affair.
The 76ers have covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 home games, suggesting a strong offensive performance, especially when playing in front of their home crowd. Their ability to win their last 11 games as favorites further supports the notion of a high-scoring game.
Considering these trends and the offensive capabilities of both teams, the Over 208.5 Total Points seems like a favorable pick for this matchup.
ATS Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers -4.5
The 76ers have domiated as favorites, winning their last 11 games in such scenarios. They have covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 home games, indicating a strong performance when playing in front of their home crowd.
While the Knicks have shown resilience as underdogs and have won the first half in their last 7 road games against the 76ers, Phillie’s form as favorites and their ability to cover at home suggest they can overcome any early challenge and ultimately secure the win and cover the -4.5 points.
Best Pick: Over 208.5 Total Points
LA CLIPPERS @ DALLAS
WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 4
DALLAS LEADS 2-1
Over/Under Prediction: Under 209.5 Total Points
Dallas and the Clippers have shown trended towards lower-scoring games, especially in recent matchups where the Mavericks’ last 6 games have gone Unders. The Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 60 games, indicating a trend towards lower-scoring affairs.
The Clippers have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 80 games. Their recent struggles to cover the spread in 5 of their last 6 games might indicate a more conservative approach.
Considering these trends and the defensive capabilities of both teams, the Under 208.5 Total Points seems like a reasonable pick for this matchup.
ATS Prediction: Dallas Mavericks -6.0
The Mavs have been in solid form at home, winning 8 of their last 9 home games. They have covered the spread in 26 of their last 36 games, with strong performances as favorites.
The Los Angeles Clippers have struggled to cover the spread in recent matchups, failing to do so in 5 of their last 6 games. This suggests weaknesses that the Mavericks could exploit, especially considering their strong performance at home.
With the Mavericks’ recent success at home and the Clippers’ struggles to cover the spread, backing the Mavericks to win by more than -4.5 points seems like a favorable pick for this matchup.
Best Pick: Dallas Mavericks -6.0
MILWAUKEE @ INDIANA
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 4
INDIANA LEADS 2-1
Over/Under Prediction: Over 216.0 Total Points
The Bucks and the Pacers games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse have tended to go Over, with the last 6 games over the total points line. The Pacers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 50 of their last 86 games, indicating a trend towards higher-scoring starts.
While both teams have shown some trends towards lower-scoring games the historical trend of their matchups at Gainbridge Fieldhouse suggests a potential for a higher-scoring affair.
ATS Prediction: Indiana Pacers -9.5
The Bucks have struggled as road underdogs, losing 17 of their last 18 games in this scenario. Moreover, the Pacers have a strong record of success in covering the spread at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, especially in playoff games where they have failed to cover in just 1 of their last 11 matchups.
Considering the Pacers’ favorable home record and the Bucks’ struggles on the road, backing the Pacers to win by more than -9.5.
Best Pick: Over 216.0 Total Points
MINNESOTA @ PHOENIX
WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 4
MINNESOTA LEADS 3-0
Over/Under Prediction: Under 211.0 Total Points
The Suns have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 65 games. Additionally, 12 of the Suns’ last 14 home games have gone Unders, indicating a trend of lower-scoring affairs at their home arena.
Considering the historical data pointing towards lower-scoring matchups for both teams, the Under on the total points line of 210.5 seems like a solid pick for this game.
ATS Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves -1.0
Despite the Suns’ struggles in their recent playoff games and their tendency to lose the first quarter in playoff home games, the Timberwolves have covered the spread in their last 5 playoff games, showcasing their ability to perform well in postseason matchups.
The Suns have only covered the spread in 32 of their last 82 games.
Backing the Timberwolves to cover a -2.0 spread appears to be a reasonable choice for this game.
