*These NBA computer picks are done the morning of game day, adjust picks should spreads and lineups change.
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MILWAUKEE @ INDIANA
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 3
SERIES TIED 1-1
Over/Under Prediction: Under 221.5 Total Points
Both the Bucks and the Pacers have leaned towards lower-scoring games. The Bucks have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games (+8.90 Units / 15% ROI), indicating a preference for games with fewer total points. They have shown a tendency to keep the scoring low in the first half, hitting the 1H Game Total Under in 34 of their last 57 games (+8.75 Units / 13% ROI).
The Pacers have exhibited a trend towards lower-scoring games, especially in the fourth quarter, where they’ve hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 58 games (+19.30 Units / 29% ROI). They’ve struggled to cover spreads in the first half, only hitting the 1H Spread in 32 of their last 76 games (-17.50 Units / -20% ROI).
ATS Prediction: Indiana Pacers +5.5
Despite the Pacers’ recent playoff struggles, they have shown some strength at home against the Bucks, with 7 of their last 8 home games against Milwaukee going overs. Additionally, the Bucks have only hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 52 games (-50.40 Units / -29% ROI), indicating inconsistency.
Given the Pacers’ history against the spread at home and the Bucks’ inconsistency, particularly in covering spreads on the road, the Pacers are a strong pick to cover the +5.5 spread, especially in a playoff scenario.
Best Pick: Under 221.5 Total Points
LA CLIPPERS @ DALLAS
WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 3
SERIES TIED 1-1
Over/Under Prediction: Under 214.5 Total Points
Both the Clippers and the Mavericks have lean towards lower-scoring games, particularly in various quarters and overall game totals. The Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 59 games (+19.10 Units / 29% ROI). Additionally, they have shown a kept the scoring low in the second quarter, hitting the 2Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 55 games (+17.55 Units / 28% ROI).
The Clippers have a trend towards lower-scores, struggling to hit the 1Q Game Total Over, doing so in only 35 of their last 84 games (-20.15 Units / -21% ROI). Additionally, they have only hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 82 games (-15.50 Units / -17% ROI).
Considering the historical matchup data, which includes 9 of the last 10 Clippers vs. Mavericks games going unders, there’s a strong indication that this game will also see fewer points scored.
ATS Prediction: Dallas Mavericks -4.5
The Mavericks have a strong track record at home against Western teams, winning their last 8 home games against such opponents. Additionally, they have covered their last 4 home games against winning teams, indicating their ability to perform well against tough competition at home.
Given the Mavericks’ historical success at home and the Clippers’ struggles to cover spreads and maintain high-scoring games, the Mavericks are a strong pick to cover the -4.5 spread, especially in a scenario where they typically start slow in the first quarter but bounce back for a strong overall performance.
Best Pick: Under 214.5 Total Points
MINNESOTA @ PHOENIX
WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 3
MINNESOTA LEADS 2-0
Over/Under Prediction: Under 208.5 Total Points
Both teams have trend towards lower-scoring games. The Timberwolves have covered the 3Q Spread in 52 of their last 85 games (+15.15 Units / 16% ROI), indicating their ability to keep games close and limit scoring in the third quarter. They have also shown a preference for low-scoring second quarters, hitting the 2Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 58 games (+13.85 Units / 21% ROI).
The Suns have shown a trend towards lower-scoring games, struggling to hit the Game Total Over, achieving this in only 23 of their last 64 games (-21.05 Units / -30% ROI). Moreover, they have excelled at keeping scoring low in the fourth quarter, hitting the 4Q Game Total Under in 48 of their last 69 games (+24.00 Units / 30% ROI).
Considering the historical matchup data, which includes 12 of the Suns’ last 13 home games going unders and the Timberwolves losing 13 of their last 14 playoff road games, there’s a strong indication that this game will also see fewer points scored.
ATS Prediction: Phoenix Suns -5.5
The Suns have a strong track record at home against the Timberwolves, covering their last 6 home games against them. Additionally, the Timberwolves’ struggles on the road in playoff games, losing 13 of their last 14, indicate that the Suns have a favorable matchup at home.
Considering the Suns’ success at home against the Timberwolves and their recent dominance in playoff matchups, they are a strong pick to cover the -4.0 spread, especially in a game where they usually start slow in the first quarter but bounce back for a strong overall performance.
