*These computer picks are done the morning of game day, adjust picks should spreads and lineups change.
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ORLANDO @ CLEVELAND
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 2
CLEVELAND LEADS 1-0
Over/Under Prediction: Under 204.5 Total Points
Given the trends from both teams, this matchup leans strongly towards an under. The Magic have consistently hit the 1Q and 1H Game Total Under in recent games, with a 20% and 21% ROI respectively, indicating a strong tendency for low-scoring first halves.
The Cavs complement this trend with their own under achievements, particularly in the 4Q where they’ve hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 74 games. This with Cleveland’s last 8 playoff games all going under, supports a case for the total going under 204.5 points.
ATS Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5
Cleveland shows a solid track record at home, especially in covering early game spreads such as the 1Q where they have an impressive 24% ROI. Despite Orlando’s ability to cover spreads generally, Cleveland’s specific home performance and the importance of this playoff context might give them the edge to cover -5.5.
The trend of Cleveland winning and covering in recent Game 2 scenarios in the Eastern First Round series gives confidence in their ability to cover the spread.
Best Pick: Under 204.5 Total Points
PHILADELPHIA @ NEW YORK
EASTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 2
NEW YORK LEADS 1-0
Over/Under Prediction: Over 204.0 Total Points
The total set at 204.0 points seems to be leaning towards an over bet, particularly given the recent scoring trends of the Knicks. They have gone over the game total over in 14 of their last 16 games, showing a nice 67% ROI in these outcomes.
This high-scoring trend is complemented by their recent performance in the 4Q game total, where they’ve gone over in 12 of their last 13 games. Although Philly has strong under trends in the 3Q, their away game performance where they often hit the 1Q moneyline shows nice early scoring that can add to a higher total.
ATS Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers +5.0
Philadelphia’s recent away games makes them a strong contender to cover the spread. They have covered the 1Q spread in 18 of their last 21 away games and hit the 1Q moneyline in 15 of those games, indicating strong starts when playing on the road.
With the 76ers also covering the spread in their last 6 games following a loss, their resilience and ability to bounce back are key factors that support a bet on them covering.
Best Pick: Over 204.0 Total Points
LA LAKERS @ DENVER
DENVER LEADS 1-0
WESTERN CONFERENCE 1ST ROUND – GAME 2
Over/Under Prediction: Under 224.0 Total Points
This game presents a solid case for an unders bet, given that both teams have shown solid trends towards low scoring outcomes in certain periods of their games. The Denver Nuggets have a strong tendency to hit the Game Total Under, doing so in 55 of their last 94 games, demonstrating a solid 14% ROI.
The Lakers have also trended towards unders, particularly in the fourth quarter, a pattern that might slow down scoring towards the end of the game. Considering these factors, along with Denver’s recent playoff history of unders, betting on a total under 224.0 points seems prudent.
ATS Prediction: Denver Nuggets -7.0
Denver comes into this game with a strong track record against the Lakers, having won their last 9 encounters. The Lakers have struggled to cover the spread in their recent Western First Round playoff games as underdogs, failing to do so in 10 of their last 11 such matchups.
Denver’s ability to cover the 1Q spread effectively, as shown in their recent games, combined with their solid Moneyline performances, suggests they are likely to cover the -7.5 spread in this scenario.
