FREE NBA PICKS
*Original NBA picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.
DP’S NBA PLAYER PROP
SEASON RECORD: 42-24
Expert NBA Player Props Analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop, exclusive to subscribers.
TORONTO @ INDIANA
Ibaka continues to take advantage of the latest absence for Marc Gasol (hamstring), averaging 23.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.3 threes, 2.0 assists and 1.0 blocks while starting the last 4 games.
Ibaka scored a season-high 30 during Wednesday’s 119-118 win over the Pacers and with Gasol still out, I like the 17.5 line with the production and minutes set to continue tonight.
Serge Ibaka also has 23+ points in 4 of his last 5 games against the Pacers.
DP’S PICK – SERGE IBAKA OVER 17.5 POINTS – WIN
+ BONUS PICK – DOMANTAS SABONIS OVER 4.5 ASSISTS – WIN
BEST BETS
PLAYER PROPS (RECOMMEND TO TAKE AS SINGLES)
- TORONTO @ INDIANA – SERGE IBAKA OVER 17.5 POINTS (22 POINTS)
- TORONTO @ INDIANA – DOMANTAS SABONIS OVER 4.5 ASSISTS (3 ASSISTS)
- DETROIT @ OKLAHOMA CITY – CHRIS PAUL OVER 16.5 POINTS (19 POINTS)
PARLAY ODDS – $6.95
TREND BET
MIAMI @ SACRAMENTO
HEAT TRENDS
- Over is 12-1 in last 13 vs teams below .400.
- Over is 13-3 in last 16 vs teams below .500.
- Over is 9-3 in last 12 road games.
- Over is 20-8 in last 28 overall.
- Over is 18-8-1 in last 27 games as a favorite.
KINGS TRENDS
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 vs teams above .600.
- Over is 10-2 in last 12 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in last 6 home games.
- Over is 8-2 in last 10 games as an underdog.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Sacramento.
- Over is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings.
TREND BET – OVER 219.0
*Strongest trend bet of the night.
If trends are your thing, this is your pick.
MEMPHIS @ PHILADELPHIA
TEAM TRENDS
GRIZZLIES TRENDS
- 5-1-1 ATS in last 7 vs teams above .500.
- 4-1-1 ATS in last 6 vs teams above .600.
- 18-7-1 ATS in last 26 games overall.
- 5-2 ATS in last 7 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 vs teams above .500.
- Over is 10-4 in last 14 vs teams above .600.
76ERS TRENDS
- 4-1 ATS in last 5 home games.
- 0-4 ATS in last 4 games overall.
- 1-5 ATS in last 6 vs teams above .500.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 home games vs teams with a losing road record.
- Over is 19-6-1 in last 26 games playing on 0 days rest.
- Over is 8-3 in last 11 home games.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.
- Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.
PLAYER TRENDS
- Ben Simmons has 20+ points in 6 of the 76ers’ last 7 games as favorites. (17.5)
- Tobias Harris has 20+ points in 7 of the 76ers’ last 8 games against Southwest opponents. (19.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| MEM | 26 | 25 | 15-13 | 11-12 |
| PHI | 31 | 21 | 22-2 | 9-19 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| MEM | 113.3 | 114.9 | -1.6 | 228.2 |
| PHI | 108.2 | 106.2 | +2.0 | 214.4 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| MEM | UNDER | |
| +7.5 | 222.5 |
THE RUB
The 76ers are just 8-11 since a 23-10 start to the season and last night’s 112-101 loss to the Bucks meant that all 4 losses on the trip were by 10+ points.
Memphis are one of the hottest teams in the league, winning 13 of their last 16 and have won 14 of the past 17 meetings.
PICK – MEMPHIS +7.5 & UNDER 222.5
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON
TEAM TRENDS
MAVERICKS TRENDS
- 2-0-2 ATS in last 4 vs teams below .400.
- 13-3-1 ATS in last 17 games as a road favorite.
- 8-3-2 ATS in last 13 games overall.
- 34-14-3 ATS in last 51 road games.
- Over is 10-1 in last 11 Friday games.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 overall.
- Over is 15-4 in last 19 games v teams below .400.
- Over is 8-3 in last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.
WIZARDS TRENDS
- 6-2 ATS in last 8 home games.
- 4-1 ATS in last 5 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in last 6 games playing on 3+ days rest.
- Over is 35-17 in last 52 vs teams above .600.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Mavericks are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Washington.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Washington.
SEASON SERIES
| 24.10.19 | DAL | WAS | 108 : 100 |
PLAYER TRENDS
- Ish Smith has 5+ assists in the Wizards’ last 4 games against Western opponents. (4.5)
- Bradley Beal has 36+ points in 4 of the Wizards’ last 5 games as underdogs. (34.5)
- Ish Smith has 13+ points in 6 of his last 7 games as a starter. (10.5)
- Davis Bertans has 18+ points in 4 of his last 5 games against Western opponents. (14.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| DAL | 31 | 20 | 14-13 | 17-7 |
| WAS | 17 | 32 | 11-12 | 6-20 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| DAL | 116.1 | 110.2 | +5.9 | 226.3 |
| WAS | 115.7 | 120.8 | -5.1 | 236.5 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| WAS | UNDER | |
| +4.5 | 234.5 |
THE RUB
The Mavs were already banged up, and they may be adding Porzingis to the list of unavailable players tonight.
Porzingis is questionable after sustaining a broken nose in Dallas’ loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday.
Like the Wizards to creep into a home win against the banged up Mavs.
PICK – WASHINGTON +4.5 & UNDER 234.5
ATLANTA @ BOSTON
TEAM TRENDS
HAWKS TRENDS
- 4-11 ATS in last 15 road games.
- 1-4 ATS in last 5 vs teams above .500.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 vs teams above .600.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 overall.
- Over is 8-2-1 in last 11 vs teams above .500.
- Over is 27-11 in last 38 when their opponent scores 100+ points in their last game.
CELTICS TRENDS
- 5-0 ATS in last 5 games overall.
- 5-0 ATS in last 5 home games.
- 5-1 ATS in last 6 vs teams below .500.
- Under is 6-2 in last 8 overall.
- Over is 7-3 in last 10 vs teams below .500.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Hawks are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Boston.
- Over is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings.
- Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Boston.
SEASON SERIES
| 04.02.20 | ATL | BOS | 115 : 123 |
| 04.01.20 | BOS | ATL | 109 : 106 |
PLAYER TRENDS
- John Collins has 26+ points in the Hawks’ last 4 road games. (20.5)
- Trae Young has 34+ points in 4 of the Hawks’ last 5 games against Eastern opponents. (29.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| ATL | 14 | 38 | 8-17 | 6-21 |
| BOS | 35 | 15 | 21-5 | 14-10 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| ATL | 109.5 | 118.3 | -8.8 | 227.8 |
| BOS | 112.7 | 105.4 | +7.3 | 218.1 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| BOS | UNDER | |
| -9.0 | 230.5 |
THE RUB
The Celtics were quiet at the trade deadline and will forge ahead with a group that has put together 5-straight wins. Playing without Kemba Walker (knee), Marcus Smart (quad) and Daniel Theis (ankle), the Celtics kept their streak alive with a 116-100 win over Orlando at home Wednesday.
The Hawks were pretty active approaching the deadline, their big acquisition in Clint Capela ranks 4th in the NBA in rebounding (13.8) and has been bothered by a heel injury but will soon join a squad that has split its last 12 games after opening 8-32.
PICK – BOSTON -9.0
TORONTO @ INDIANA
TEAM TRENDS
RAPTORS TRENDS
- 9-3 ATS in last 12 road games vs teams with a home winning % over .600.
- 5-1 ATS in last 6 road games vs team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 overall.
- Over is 7-2 in last 9 road games.
PACERS TRENDS
- 2-5 ATS in last 7 home games.
- 1-7 ATS in last 8 home games vs teams with a road winning % over .600.
- Over is 5-1 in last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-2 in last 7 home games.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 games as an underdog.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Raptors are 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Indiana.
- Raptors are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
- Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Indiana.
SEASON SERIES
| 06.02.20 | TOR | IND | 119 : 118 |
| 24.12.19 | IND | TOR | 120 : 115 (107 : 107) |
PLAYER TRENDS
- Malcolm Brogdon has 15 points or less in 8 of his last 9 games at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. (tBC)
- Serge Ibaka has 23+ points in 4 of his last 5 games against the Pacers. (17.5)
- Kyle Lowry has 7+ assists in his last 5 games against the Pacers. (6.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| TOR | 37 | 14 | 19-7 | 18-7 |
| IND | 31 | 20 | 18-7 | 13-13 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| TOR | 112.7 | 106.1 | +6.6 | 218.8 |
| IND | 109.6 | 107.1 | +2.5 | 216.7 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| TOR | UNDER | |
| +1.0 | 219.0 |
THE RUB
The Raptors had to work hard in the second half on Wednesday but grabbed the lead and extended their streak to a franchise-best 12 straight games. The Raptors go for 13 in a row when they complete the home-and-home set by visiting the Pacers on Friday.
With Gasol still out and Ibaka having 23+ points in 4 of his last 5 games against the Pacers, we’ll take that as the best.
PICK – UNDER 219.0
PLAYER PROP – SERGE IBAKA OVER 17.5 POINTS
DETROIT @ OKLAHOMA CITY
TEAM TRENDS
PISTONS TRENDS
- 20-42-1 ATS in last 63 games overall.
- 7-16-1 ATS in last 24 road games.
- 6-15 ATS in last 21 vs teams above .600.
- 3-11-1 ATS in last 15 road games vs teams with a winning home record.
- Over is 18-6 in last 24 overall.
- Under is 5-2 in last 7 vs teams above .500.
- Over is 21-10 in last 31 vs teams above .600.
THUNDER TRENDS
- 8-1 ATS in last 9 Friday games.
- 6-1 ATS in last 7 vs teams below .400.
- 19-7 ATS in last 26 vs teams below .500.
- 35-17 ATS in last 52 games overall.
- 2-5 ATS in last 7 home games.
- Over is 12-2 in last 14 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 4-1 in last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-2 in last 7 home games.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Pistons are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Oklahoma City.
- Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
PLAYER TRENDS
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has 20+ points in the Thunder’s last 9 games as home favorites. (19.5)
- Chris Paul has 19+ points in 5 of his last 6 home games against the Pistons. (16.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| DET | 19 | 34 | 11-17 | 8-17 |
| OKC | 31 | 20 | 16-10 | 15-10 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| DET | 108.9 | 111.3 | -2.4 | 220.2 |
| OKC | 110.5 | 107.8 | +2.7 | 218.3 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| OKC | OVER | |
| -12.5 | 214.5 |
THE RUB
The Pistons traded the NBA’s leading rebounder, leaving a big hole in the middle for Friday’s road contest versus the Thunder. Detroit shipped Andre Drummond to the Cavaliers for John Henson, Brandon Knight and a 2nd-round pick in 2023.
Drummond is averaging a career-best 17.8 ppg to go with 15.8 rpg mark but the return was light because the 26-year-old can opt out of his contract after the season and become a free agent.
The Thunder considered shipping Gallinari to Miami but the deal broke down when the 31-year-old and the Heat couldn’t reach contract terms.
PICK – OVER 214.5
HOUSTON @ PHOENIX
TEAM TRENDS
ROCKETS TRENDS
- 5-14 ATS in last 19 road games vs teams with a home winning % below .400.
- 2-7 ATS in last 9 road games.
- 1-5 ATS in last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 vs teams below .400.
- Over is 5-2 in last 7 overall.
SUNS TRENDS
- 0-4 ATS in last 4 games overall.
- 0-7 ATS in last 7 home games.
- Under is 6-1 in last 7 home games.
- Over is 5-2 in last 7 vs teams above .600.
- Over is 11-5 in last 16 vs teams above .500.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Rockets are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
- Over is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.
- Rockets are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Phoenix.
- Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Phoenix.
SEASON SERIES
| 22.12.19 | PHO | HOU | 125 : 139 |
| 08.12.19 | HOU | PHO | 115 : 109 |
PLAYER TRENDS
- Devin Booker has 32+ points in 10 of the Suns’ last 11 games against Western opponents. (29.5)
- Ricky Rubio has 9+ assists in 4 of his last 5 games against the Rockets. (8.5)
- James Harden has 44+ points in his last 3 games against the Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena. (38.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| HOU | 33 | 18 | 18-7 | 15-11 |
| PHO | 20 | 31 | 9-17 | 11-14 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| HOU | 118.8 | 114.4 | +4.4 | 233.2 |
| PHO | 112.5 | 113.9 | -1.4 | 226.4 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| HOU | UNDER | |
| +2.5 | 233.5 |
THE RUB
The Rockets made some noise at the trade deadline as they showed confidence in forging ahead with a small-ball lineup. That scheme paid dividends last night against the Lakers on and the Rockets will try to stretch their current streak to 5 tonight.
Russell Westbrook carried the load against the Lakers with 41 points on 17-of-28 shooting and Houston closed the 121-111 win on a 19-5 run to move to within 5 1/2 games of the first-place Lakers in the Western Conference.
We’ve backed against the Rockets twice this season on back to backs and been burnt both times by large margins.
PICK – HOUSTON WIN
MIAMI @ SACRAMENTO
TEAM TRENDS
HEAT TRENDS
- 13-6-1 ATS in last 20 vs teams below .400.
- 2-6 ATS in last 8 games as a road favorite.
- 9-1 ATS in last 10 games following a straight up loss of 10+ points.
- Over is 12-1 in last 13 vs teams below .400.
- Over is 13-3 in last 16 vs teams below .500.
- Over is 9-3 in last 12 road games.
- Over is 20-8 in last 28 overall.
- Over is 18-8-1 in last 27 games as a favorite.
KINGS TRENDS
- 15-4 ATS in last 19 games playing on 3+ days rest.
- 3-12-1 ATS in last 16 home games.
- 1-5 ATS in last 6 vs teams above .600.
- 1-6-1 ATS in last 8 vs teams above .500.
- Over is 5-0 in last 5 vs teams above .600.
- Over is 10-2 in last 12 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in last 6 home games.
- Over is 8-2 in last 10 games as an underdog.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Heat are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
- Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Sacramento.
- Over is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| 21.01.20 | MIA | SAC | 118 : 113 (105 : 105) |
PLAYER TRENDS
- Goran Dragic has 18+ points in his last 7 games against the Kings. (17.5)
- Buddy Hield has 20+ points in the Kings’ last 5 games against the Heat. (17.5)
- Bam Adebayo has 18+ points in 4 of the Heat’s last 5 games against Western opponents. (16.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| MIA | 34 | 16 | 22-3 | 12-13 |
| SAC | 19 | 31 | 9-15 | 10-16 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| MIA | 112.2 | 108.3 | +3.9 | 220.5 |
| SAC | 107.6 | 110.6 | -3.0 | 218.2 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| MIA | OVER | |
| +1.5 | 219.0 |
THE RUB
Miami completed a deal that would bring veteran Andre Iguodala over from the Grizzlies, giving the team an experienced option in a defensive role.
Trends leaning strongly to Overs.
PICK – OVER 219.0
PORTLAND @ UTAH
TEAM TRENDS
TRAIL BLAZERS TRENDS
- 4-1 ATS in last 5 games overall.
- 4-1 ATS in last 5 vs teams above .600.
- 4-10 ATS in last 14 road games.
- 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 games playing on 0 days rest.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 road games.
- Over is 8-1 in last 9 overall.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 vs teams above .600.
JAZZ TRENDS
- 6-0 ATS in last 6 home games vs teams with a losing road record.
- 7-2-1 ATS in last 10 home games.
- 11-4 ATS in last 15 vs teams below .500.
- 0-5-1 ATS in last 6 games overall.
- 0-5-1 ATS in last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in last 6 home games vs teams with a road winning % below .400.
- Over is 7-2 in last 9 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Trail Blazers are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Utah.
- Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Utah.
SEASON SERIES
| 02.02.20 | POR | UTA | 124 : 107 |
| 27.12.19 | UTA | POR | 121 : 115 |
PLAYER TRENDS
- Mike Conley has 20+ points in his last 5 games against the Blazers. (16.5)
- Damian Lillard has 9+ assists in the Blazers’ last 6 games. (8.5)
- Hassan Whiteside has 15 points or less in 8 of his last 9 road games against Northwest opponents. (15.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| POR | 24 | 28 | 14-11 | 10-17 |
| UTA | 32 | 18 | 18-5 | 14-13 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| POR | 113.5 | 115.0 | -1.5 | 228.5 |
| UTA | 110.8 | 106.8 | +4.0 | 217.6 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| POR | OVER | |
| +10.0 | 227.5 |
THE RUB
The Jazz hope to end a 5-game losing streak tonight. One of the losses came against the Trail Blazers when Damian Lillard scored 51 points in last Saturday’s 124-107 home win.
Portland have won 6 of 8 games after a 125-117 home win over the Spurs last night. Lillard had 26 points and 10 assists and has scored 20+ points in 17 straight games.
PICK – PORTLAND +10.0
