Home Free NBA Picks & Parlays Tonight’s Semi-Finals NBA Picks – Monday, 18th May

Tonight’s Semi-Finals NBA Picks – Monday, 18th May

nba western finals picks

The Western Finals open with Oklahoma City hosting a battle-tested San Antonio side. OKC’s elite two-way efficiency meets the Spurs’ structured half-court offense in what shapes as a high-IQ tactical series.


SAN ANTONIO SPURS @ OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Odds: SA $3.00 / OKC $1.41
West Finals – Game 1 (Series starts 5/18)

Oklahoma City finished the season with a dominant +11.1 differential, averaging 119.0 PPG while allowing just 107.9, one of the league’s best defensive profiles. San Antonio posted a +8.3 differential and 119.8 PPG, but face a difficult road matchup against OKC’s 34-7 home record.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
SA 62 20 32-8 30-12
OKC 64 18 34-7 30-10

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
SA 119.8 111.5 +8.3 231.3
OKC 119.0 107.9 +11.1 226.9

PICKS ATS

SPREAD POINTS RESULT
OKC UNDER
-6.5 219.5

The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder will open the 2025-26 Western Conference Finals at Paycom Center on Monday night, with Oklahoma City looking to extend its unbeaten playoff run to 9-0.

Despite the Thunder’s dominance, the Spurs have been the one team to consistently trouble them this season, winning four of five regular season meetings including an NBA Cup Semi-final thriller. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to lead Oklahoma City’s charge, while Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox headline a dangerous Spurs squad that has already proven it can win at Paycom Center.

Team Trends

  • The Thunder have won each of their last 9 playoff games.
  • Each of the Spurs’ last 7 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Thunder have won the first quarter in each of their last 10 playoff home games.
  • The Spurs have covered the line in 5 of their last 6 playoff road games.

Player Trends

  • De’Aaron Fox – Made 2+ threes in each of his last 6 appearances against the Thunder at Paycom Center.
  • Luguentz Dort – Made 2+ threes in 7 of the Thunder’s last 8 Game 1s of a playoff series.
  • Devin Vassell – Recorded 2+ assists in each of the Spurs’ last 13 games.
  • Stephon Castle – Recorded 4+ assists in each of his last 33 appearances.
  • Ajay Mitchell – Recorded 4+ assists in each of the Thunder’s last 5 games.
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Recorded 6+ assists in 11 of his last 12 appearances.
  • Jalen Williams – Scored 16+ points in each of his last 15 playoff home games.
  • Dylan Harper – Scored 11+ points in 6 of the Spurs’ last 7 games.
  • Ajay Mitchell – Scored 15+ points in each of the Thunder’s last 6 games.
  • De’Aaron Fox – Scored 16+ points in 17 of his last 18 playoff appearances.
  • Devin Vassell – Scored 10+ points in each of the Spurs’ last 12 games.
  • Stephon Castle – Scored 15+ points in 10 of the Spurs’ last 11 games.
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Scored 31+ points in each of the Thunder’s last 3 Western Conference Finals home games.
  • Chet Holmgren – Scored 15+ points in 10 of his last 11 appearances.
  • Chet Holmgren – Recorded 9+ rebounds in each of the Thunder’s last 5 games.
  • Dylan Harper – Recorded 4+ rebounds in each of the Spurs’ last 6 games.
  • Isaiah Hartenstein – Recorded 12 rebounds in each of his last 2 appearances against the Spurs.
  • Victor Wembanyama – Recorded 14+ rebounds in 5 of the Spurs’ last 7 games.
  • Chet Holmgren – Recorded 2+ blocks in each of the Thunder’s last 6 playoff home games.

PICK – UNDER 219.5 TOTAL POINTS


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James has owned and run TheMidfield for over 15 years. He is an NBA expert tipster with extensive experience in the wagering industry, and across everything NBA. Follow his daily NBA tips for the latest trends, picks and expert analysis.