Tonight’s Best NBA Picks – Sunday, 18th January

Tonight’s slate features several strong statistical angles, with Denver rolling at 122.5 points per game after Jamal Murray’s 42-point performance and Sacramento looking to extend its four-game home winning streak against Portland. In Houston, the Rockets’ league-best 49.2 rebounds per game clash with a Pelicans team ranked top 7 in offensive rebounding, while the Lakers host Toronto averaging 116.5 points per game at home.

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ORLANDO MAGIC v MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Kia Center, Orlando, FL
Odds: ORL $1.60 / MEM $2.40

TEAM TRENDS

• The Grizzlies have lost 24 of their last 26 games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Grizzlies have won the 1st quarter in 8 of their last 10 games against the Magic.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

Set to meet for the second time this season, the Orlando Magic and Memphis Grizzlies clash in London on Sunday after Orlando claimed a 118-111 win in their first meeting on January 15. Paolo Banchero led that matchup with 26 points while Jaren Jackson Jr. responded with 30 for Memphis. The Magic come in in stronger form, winning 6 of their last 10 games compared to Memphis’ 3-7 stretch.

Memphis has struggled to protect its home floor this season, going 9-11 while allowing 116.2 points per game and being outscored by 1.4 on average. Their offense has also been inefficient, shooting 45.3% from the field, which is 2.2% lower than what Orlando typically allows.

Orlando has been competitive on the road at 9-11 and owns an 11-11 record against teams with winning records. The Magic are slightly more efficient offensively, shooting 46.7% from the field, and their defense has held opponents to 114.6 points per game over the last 10 contests.

Jaren Jackson Jr. continues to be Memphis’ focal point, averaging 21.6 points over his last 10 games, while Cedric Coward provides secondary scoring at 14.0 points per game. For Orlando, Desmond Bane is averaging 19.0 points and 4.5 assists, with Anthony Black contributing perimeter shooting at 2.5 made threes per game across his last 10 outings.

PICK – ORLANDO -3.5

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BROOKLYN NETS @ CHICAGO BULLS

United Center, Chicago, IL
Odds: BKN $3.00 / CHI $1.41

TEAM TRENDS

• The home team has won each of the Bulls’ last 6 games.
• The Bulls have lost the 1st quarter in 5 of their last 6 games.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

Brooklyn visits Chicago looking to snap a four-game road losing streak, but recent form favors the Bulls. Chicago has been stronger offensively, scoring 117.3 points per game, which is 3.5 more than Brooklyn allows, and they continue to dominate the glass, ranking second in the league in defensive rebounds behind Josh Giddey.

Brooklyn has struggled badly in lopsided games, going 8-19 in contests decided by 10+ points, and their shooting efficiency remains an issue at just 44.6% from the field. Over their last 10 games, the Nets are 2-8 and averaging only 106.5 points per game.

These teams meet for the third time this season, with Brooklyn winning the last matchup 112-109 on January 17 behind Michael Porter Jr.’s 26 points. Chicago will look to respond at home, where Nikola Vucevic has been in strong scoring form, averaging 20.3 points over his last 10 games.

Key contributors include Matas Buzelis (14.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Vucevic for Chicago, while Brooklyn relies on Noah Clowney (13.3 PPG) and Egor Demin, who is averaging 3.0 made threes over his last 10 games.

PICK – OVER 220.5 TOTAL POINTS

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NEW ORLEANS PELICANS @ HOUSTON ROCKETS

Toyota Center, Houston, TX
Odds: NO $6.00 / HOU $1.14

TEAM TRENDS

• The Pelicans have lost each of their last 12 road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Rockets have lost the first half in 7 of their last 8 games.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

Houston looks well placed at home against a New Orleans side that has struggled badly in conference play. The Rockets lead the league with 49.2 rebounds per game and face a Pelicans team that is 4-24 against Western Conference opponents. That rebounding edge, led by Alperen Sengun’s 9.2 boards per game, shapes as a major advantage.

These teams meet for the second time this season after New Orleans stole a 133-128 overtime win on December 19. Since then, Houston has gone 5-5 in its last 10 games, allowing just 107.6 points per contest, while New Orleans is 2-8 over the same span and giving up 120.6 points per game.

Houston shoots 47.8% from the field and holds opponents to 46.2%, while New Orleans allows 48.6% shooting defensively, one of the weaker marks in the league. Kevin Durant leads the Rockets with 26.3 points per game, and Amen Thompson has averaged 20.9 points and 8.6 rebounds over his last 10. For New Orleans, Trey Murphy III is putting up 22.2 points per game, with Zion Williamson adding 23.2 points per game across his last 10 outings.

If Houston controls the glass and limits second-chance points, it should be able to reverse the result from the first meeting.

PICK – OVER 229.5 TOTAL POINTS

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CHARLOTTE HORNETS @ DENVER NUGGETS

Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Odds: CHA $2.10 / DEN $1.77

TEAM TRENDS

• The Hornets have lost each of their last 13 games against Nuggets teams that held a winning record.
• Each of the Hornets’ last 7 games on the second leg of a back-to-back have gone UNDER the total match points line.
• The Nuggets have won the first half in 7 of their last 8 home games against the Hornets.
• The Nuggets have covered the line in 3 of their last 4 games.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

Denver comes in with momentum after Jamal Murray’s 42-point explosion against Washington and will look to build on a strong 12-6 home record. The Nuggets are averaging 122.5 points per game, which is 5.4 more than what Charlotte typically allows, giving Denver a clear offensive edge in this matchup. They also took the first meeting this season 115-106, again behind a big night from Murray.

Charlotte does have areas that can keep this competitive. The Hornets rank eighth in the NBA in rebounding at 45.3 per game, led by Moussa Diabate, and they are a dangerous perimeter shooting team, averaging 15.4 made three-pointers per game. That is well above the 13.2 threes Denver usually allows, making outside shooting a key swing factor.

Form-wise, Denver is 7-3 in its last 10, while Charlotte is 4-6 but scoring well, putting up 120.0 points per game in that stretch on 48.3% shooting. The Hornets have been more efficient offensively than their overall record suggests, but they have struggled to translate that into wins on the road.

Peyton Watson has been a steady scoring option for Denver at 14.0 points per game on strong efficiency, while Murray is averaging 21.4 points over his last 10 games. For Charlotte, Kon Knueppel continues to be their most consistent scorer at 19.2 points per game, with LaMelo Ball adding 20.7 points per game over his last 10.

If Denver controls tempo and limits Charlotte’s three-point volume, their scoring balance and home-court edge should be enough to cover the small spread. If the Hornets get hot from deep and dominate the glass, this can turn into a much tighter contest than the line suggests.

PICK – DENVER -1.5

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PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS @ SACRAMENTO KINGS

Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
Odds: POR $2.15 / SAC $1.73

TEAM TRENDS

• The home team has won 8 of the last 9 games between the Trail Blazers and Kings.
• The Kings have won the first half in each of their last 5 home games.
• The home team has covered the line in each of the Kings’ last 6 games.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

Sacramento will look to extend its four-game home winning streak against a Portland side that has been one of the hotter teams in the West recently. The Kings are just 8-24 in conference play but have been more competitive at home, while Portland sits 17-14 against Western Conference opponents despite being outscored by 2.2 points per game overall.

This matchup also shapes as a contrast in form. Sacramento is 4-6 in its last 10, averaging only 107.2 points per game, while Portland is 7-3 over that stretch and allowing just 112.6 points per contest. The Trail Blazers already took the most recent meeting 98-93 on Dec. 21, showing they can grind out a result even in a low-scoring environment.

Offensively, DeMar DeRozan continues to lead Sacramento at 19.1 points per game, with Russell Westbrook contributing 16.6 points per game over his last 10. For Portland, Shaedon Sharpe has been the main scoring threat at 21.6 points per game, while Deni Avdija has added strong playmaking recently, averaging 19.9 points and 4.9 assists across his last 10 outings.

With Sacramento giving up 120.6 points per game and Portland allowing 118.4, defence will likely decide this one. Portland’s stronger recent form and rebounding edge give them a slight consistency advantage, while Sacramento’s home streak and narrow betting line point to another tight finish.

PICK – OVER 229.5 TOTAL POINTS

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TORONTO RAPTORS @ LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Odds: TOR $2.05 / LAL $1.80

TEAM TRENDS

• The Raptors have lost each of their last 15 road games against Western opponents that held a winning record.
• The Raptors have won the first quarter in 7 of their last 8 games at Crypto.com Arena.
• The Raptors have failed to cover the line in each of their last 4 road games against Western opponents.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

Toronto and Los Angeles meet again after a tight 123-120 Lakers win on Dec. 5, a game where Austin Reaves exploded for 44 points and Scottie Barnes led the Raptors with 23. This shapes as another close matchup, with the Lakers slight favourites at home.

Los Angeles is 11-8 at home and scores 116.5 points per game, which is 4.2 more than the 112.3 Toronto allows. The Lakers have struggled to blow teams out though, going 11-15 in games decided by 10 or more points. Over their last 10 games, they are 4-6 and giving up 118.5 points per contest, a number that could concern them against a disciplined Raptors side.

Toronto has been strong on the road at 12-8 and is 6-4 in its last 10 games. The Raptors allow just 110.2 points per game in that span and hold a clear rebounding edge, averaging 44.6 rebounds compared to the Lakers’ 40.2. They are also eighth in the Eastern Conference in offensive rebounding at 11.5 per game, with Jakob Poeltl pulling down 2.7 offensive boards on his own.

From a shooting perspective, Toronto is hitting 47.1% from the field this season, but that is 1.8 percentage points lower than what Lakers opponents usually manage (48.9%). The Lakers’ defence has been vulnerable, which opens the door for a team like Toronto that moves the ball well, averaging 28.6 assists over its last 10 games.

LeBron James continues to anchor Los Angeles with 22.6 points, 6.0 rebounds and 6.9 assists per game. Luka Doncic has been a major perimeter threat lately, averaging 3.0 made three-pointers over his last 10 outings. For Toronto, Immanuel Quickley is averaging 16.5 points on 42.3% shooting, while Brandon Ingram has added steady outside production at 1.4 made threes per game over his last 10.

Recent form suggests a competitive contest. The Lakers are allowing more points than they score over their last 10, while Toronto holds a small positive differential. With the line set at Lakers -1.5, this profiles as another game decided in the final minutes.

PICK – LA LAKERS -1.0

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TRACY MCGRADY – TOP 10