NBA Tips Tonight – Saturday, 27th December

DALLAS MAVERICKS @ SACRAMENTO KINGS

Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA

TEAM TRENDS

• Home team has won each of the Mavericks’ last 10 games
• Kings’ last 6 games on the first leg of a back-to-back have gone UNDER
• Mavericks have failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 11 games as favourites

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

The Dallas Mavericks head to Sacramento on Saturday looking to snap a four-game road losing streak. Both teams sit near the bottom of the Western Conference, but Dallas has shown better recent form.

Sacramento is just 5–19 against conference opponents and has struggled to capitalize even when winning the turnover battle, averaging 13.7 giveaways per game. The Kings have also been outscored consistently, going 2–8 over their last 10 games while allowing more than 120 points per contest.

Dallas hasn’t fared much better in conference play at 6–14, but the Mavericks bring a clear edge in pace. They lead the West in fast-break scoring at 17.9 points per game and are shooting efficiently of late, going 5–4 over their last nine games while averaging nearly 120 points. Perimeter shooting has been limited for both sides, with neither team producing high three-point volume.

Injuries

Kings: Drew Eubanks (day to day, thumb), Zach LaVine (out, ankle), Devin Carter (day to day, ankle), Keegan Murray (day to day, calf), Domantas Sabonis (out, knee).

Mavericks: Dereck Lively II (out for season, foot), Kyrie Irving (out, knee), Dante Exum (out for season, knee), Anthony Davis (day to day, groin).

PICK – OVER 232.5 TOTAL POINTS

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DENVER NUGGETS @ ORLANDO MAGIC

Kia Center, Orlando, FL

TEAM TRENDS

• 7 of the Nuggets’ last 8 games as road favourites have gone OVER
• Nuggets have won 11 of their last 12 road games
• Nuggets have won the 1st half in 8 of their last 9 games vs the Magic
• Magic have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 4 games as underdogs

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

The Denver Nuggets visit Orlando on Saturday night riding strong form after Nikola Jokic’s 56-point performance in a 142–138 overtime win over Minnesota. Denver has been elite on the road this season, going 12–3 away from home, while Orlando has held its own at Kia Center with a 10–6 home record.

Orlando thrives in transition, ranking third in the NBA in fast-break scoring, but perimeter production has been limited compared to what Denver typically allows. The Nuggets continue to operate one of the league’s most efficient offenses, shooting over 51% from the field and ranking near the top in assists, led by Jokic. Denver also took the first meeting of the season 126–115 back on December 19, with Jamal Murray scoring 32 points.

Recent form favors the Nuggets, who are 8–2 over their last 10 games and averaging more than 128 points per game, while the Magic have gone 4–6 over the same span and allowed over 116 points per contest.

INJURIES: Magic: Franz Wagner: day to day (leg), Goga Bitadze: day to day (knee), Moritz Wagner: day to day (knee), Jalen Suggs: day to day (hip).

INJURIES: Nuggets: Cameron Johnson: out (knee), Christian Braun: out (ankle), Aaron Gordon: out (hamstring), Tamar Bates: out (foot).

PICK – DENVER -4.5

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PHOENIX SUNS @ NEW ORLEANS PELICANS

Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA

TEAM TRENDS

• 13 of the Pelicans’ last 15 home games vs the Suns have gone OVER
• Pelicans have lost 18 of their last 19 games vs Western Conference teams with a winning record
• Suns have covered the spread in each of their last 10 games vs losing-record teams

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

The Phoenix Suns return to New Orleans on Saturday night for a Western Conference matchup, entering as road favorites after taking the previous meeting 115–108 on December 27. Phoenix has been far more consistent within the conference, while New Orleans continues to struggle against Western opponents.

The Pelicans are just 4–20 in conference play but remain active on the offensive glass, ranking fourth in the West in offensive rebounds. New Orleans has played more competitive basketball recently, splitting its last 10 games while averaging over 121 points per contest. Defense remains an issue, with opponents scoring at a similar rate during that stretch.

Phoenix has leaned on defense, ranking among the league’s better units in points allowed and opponent shooting percentage. Offensively, the Suns rely heavily on perimeter scoring, with Devin Booker in strong form over the past 10 games. Recent results have been even for Phoenix as well, with a 5–5 record over its last 10 games.

INJURIES: Pelicans: Herbert Jones: day to day (ankle), Dejounte Murray: out (leg).

INJURIES: Suns: Grayson Allen: day to day (knee), Jalen Green: out (hamstring).

PICK – PHOENIX -5.5

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NEW YORK KNICKS @ ATLANTA HAWKS

State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA

TEAM TRENDS

• Home team has won the 1st half in each of the Knicks’ last 5 games
• Knicks have won 18 of their last 19 games vs teams with a losing record
• Hawks’ last 4 home games on the second leg of a back-to-back have gone UNDER
• Hawks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 7 games

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

The New York Knicks visit Atlanta on Saturday night as the Hawks try to halt a five-game losing streak. New York sits second in the Eastern Conference and has been one of the league’s most consistent teams against conference opponents, while Atlanta continues to slide down the standings.

The Hawks are 9–12 against the East but remain dangerous in transition, ranking third in the NBA in fast-break points per game behind Jalen Johnson. Shooting efficiency has been a strength for Atlanta, though defensive struggles have defined recent form, with the Hawks allowing nearly 129 points per game over their last 10 contests.

New York has gone 17–8 against Eastern Conference opponents and has dominated the glass, ranking third in the league in rebounds per game. The Knicks are also rolling lately, going 8–2 over their last 10 games while averaging just over 120 points per contest and holding opponents to 113.0 points per game.

INJURIES: Hawks: Kristaps Porzingis: out (reconditioning), N’Faly Dante: out for season (knee).

INJURIES: Knicks: Landry Shamet: out (shoulder), Josh Hart: out (ankle), Miles McBride: day to day (ankle).

PICK – OVER 242.5 TOTAL POINTS

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INDIANA PACERS @ MIAMI HEAT

Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

TEAM TRENDS

• Underdogs have covered the spread in 10 of the last 11 Pacers–Heat games at Kaseya Center
• Pacers have lost 14 straight games vs teams with a winning record
• Last 8 Pacers–Heat games have gone OVER

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

The Indiana Pacers visit Miami on Saturday night looking to snap a seven-game losing streak against a Heat team hovering in the middle of the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Miami enters as a solid home favorite despite recent inconsistency.

The Heat are 10–10 in conference play and average 119.5 points per game, outscoring opponents by just over two points per contest. While recent form has dipped with a 2–8 record over the last 10 games, Miami has still been more competitive defensively than Indiana, holding opponents to 115.3 points per game in that span.

Indiana has struggled badly against the East at 4–15 and has been especially vulnerable in lopsided games, going 3–16 in contests decided by 10 or more points. The Pacers are also on a 2–8 run over their last 10 games, scoring just 108.3 points per game while allowing more than 116. Miami’s edge in scoring efficiency and ability to get to the free-flowing offense at home shapes this matchup.

INJURIES: Heat: Bam Adebayo: day to day (back), Tyler Herro: day to day (toe).

INJURIES: Pacers: Obi Toppin: out (foot), Aaron Nesmith: out (knee), Tyrese Haliburton: out for season (achilles), Ben Sheppard: day to day (calf), Isaiah Jackson: day to day (concussion).

PICK – MIAMI -8.0

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MILWAUKEE BUCKS @ CHICAGO BULLS

United Center, Chicago, IL

TEAM TRENDS

• Bulls have lost the 1st half in each of their last 9 games as favourites
• Underdogs have won each of the Bulls’ last 6 games
• Bulls’ last 7 home games have gone UNDER
• Bulls have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 13 games as favourites

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

The Milwaukee Bucks visit Chicago on Saturday night as the Bulls look to extend a five-game winning streak. Chicago sits just inside the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference, while Milwaukee continues to search for consistency.

The Bulls have been productive offensively, averaging 119.4 points per game, and have played better of late, going 6–4 over their last 10 games. Chicago has also been competitive at home despite defensive struggles, allowing over 122 points per game on the season. The Bulls dropped the first meeting of the season 126–110 on November 8 and will be aiming for a different result this time around.

Milwaukee has struggled against conference opponents and enters with a 3–7 record over its last 10 games. Rebounding remains a major issue for the Bucks, who rank last in the league at just over 40 rebounds per game. Offensively, efficiency has been respectable, but scoring output has dipped during their recent stretch.

INJURIES: Bulls: Noa Essengue: out for season (shoulder).

INJURIES: Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo: out (calf), Taurean Prince: out (neck), Gary Trent Jr.: day to day (calf).

PICK – UNDER 236.5 TOTAL POINTS

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CLEVELAND CAVALIERS @ HOUSTON ROCKETS

Toyota Center, Houston, TX

TEAM TRENDS

• Cavaliers’ last 4 games have gone OVER
• Rockets have won 8 of their last 9 home games
• Rockets have won the 1st quarter in each of their last 5 games vs the Cavaliers
• Rockets have covered the spread in each of their last 4 games vs the Cavaliers

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

The Cleveland Cavaliers visit Houston on Saturday night as the Rockets look to extend a three-game home winning streak. Houston has been strong at home this season with an 8–2 record, while Cleveland has been more inconsistent on the road at 6–7.

Houston continues to shoot the ball efficiently, converting 48.9% from the field, and allows just 112.1 points per game. Cleveland brings one of the league’s top-scoring offenses, ranking second in the Eastern Conference at 120.2 points per game, but has struggled defensively of late, giving up more than 122 points per game over its last 10 contests.

This is the second meeting of the season between the teams. Houston took the first matchup 114–104 on November 20, led by Alperen Sengun’s 28 points, while De’Andre Hunter scored 25 for Cleveland. Recent form has been mixed for both sides, with the Rockets going 5–5 over their last 10 games and the Cavaliers sitting at 4–6.

INJURIES: Rockets: Fred VanVleet: out for season (acl).

INJURIES: Cavaliers: Max Strus: out (foot), Larry Nance Jr.: out (calf).

PICK – OVER 235.5 TOTAL POINTS

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BROOKLYN NETS @ MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

TEAM TRENDS

• Timberwolves’ last 7 home games have gone UNDER
• Timberwolves have won each of their last 6 games vs the Nets
• Timberwolves have won both halves in each of their last 3 games vs the Nets
• Timberwolves have failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 8 games vs losing-record teams

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Brooklyn Nets on Saturday night looking to extend a three-game winning streak. Minnesota has been strong at home this season, going 12–5, and continues to sit comfortably inside the Western Conference playoff picture.

The Timberwolves average 14.1 made three-pointers per game, a number that exceeds what Brooklyn typically allows, and they took the first meeting of the season 125–109 on November 4 behind 25 points from Donte DiVincenzo. Minnesota has also been in excellent recent form, going 8–2 over its last 10 games while holding opponents to just over 112 points per game.

Brooklyn enters with a 5–8 road record and has struggled in lopsided losses, going 6–15 in games decided by 10 points or more. The Nets have shown better recent form at 6–4 over their last 10 games, but face a tough matchup against a Minnesota team that has been consistent on both ends of the floor.

INJURIES: Timberwolves: Terrence Shannon Jr.: day to day (foot).

INJURIES: Nets: Haywood Highsmith: out (knee), Drake Powell: day to day (ankle), Cam Thomas: day to day (hamstring).

PICK – BROOKLYN +10.5

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UTAH JAZZ @ SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX

TEAM TRENDS

• Jazz have won the 1st quarter in each of their last 4 games vs the Spurs
• Jazz have lost each of their last 15 road games vs teams with a winning record
• 6 of the Jazz’s last 7 games have gone OVER
• Spurs have covered the spread in each of their last 6 home games

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

The San Antonio Spurs host the Utah Jazz on Saturday night looking to extend a six-game home winning streak. San Antonio sits near the top of the Western Conference and has been dominant in conference play, while Utah continues to struggle on the defensive end.

The Spurs are 14–6 against the West and rank among the conference leaders in scoring, averaging 120.3 points per game while shooting 48.7% from the field. San Antonio has also been in excellent recent form, going 9–1 over its last 10 games and outscoring opponents by more than 10 points per contest during that stretch.

Utah is just 6–14 in conference matchups and has allowed 127.5 points per game this season, one of the worst marks in the league. Despite scoring at a high rate recently, the Jazz have been unable to slow opponents, giving up nearly 132 points per game over their last 10 contests.

INJURIES: Spurs: De’Aaron Fox: day to day (adductor).

INJURIES: Jazz: Ace Bailey: out (hip), Georges Niang: out (foot), Walker Kessler: out for season (shoulder).

PICK – UTAH +16.5

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