*These NBA computer picks are done the morning of game day, adjust picks should spreads and lineups change.
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BOSTON @ DALLAS
NBA FINALS – GAME 4
BOSTON LEAD 3-0
Over/Under Pick: Under 211.5 Total Points
- Boston Celtics’ Trends: They have excelled in keeping the score low, particularly in the fourth quarter, with the game total going under in 63 of their last 92 games, yielding a substantial 29% ROI. This is significant in games where late-game scoring often decides the total.
- Dallas Mavericks’ Trends: Echoing Boston’s under tendencies, Dallas has also been part of games frequently going under, evident from their 49 unders in the last 77 games, which corresponds to a 21% ROI.
- Given the strong trends towards the Under in previous matchups and current season statistics, a bet on the Under for this game appears good.
ATS Pick: Boston Celtics -1.0
- Current Form and Head-to-Head: The Celtics have won their last 10 games and have covered the spread in their last 4 road games against the Mavericks. This ongoing momentum, combined with their historical edge in recent matchups, supports their ability to cover.
- Statistical Backing: Boston has a robust record in covering the first half spread, achieving this in 65 of their last 99 games with a 22% ROI. This indicates their ability to start games strongly, an important factor when covering small spreads.
Boston’s consistent performance in the early parts of the game and their strong record against Dallas makes them a solid choice to cover -1.0 in this matchup.
Best Pick: Under 211.5 Total Points
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