John Hollinger is a name tied to the revolution in basketball advanced metrics.
His work in the development of several advanced statistical formulas, has greatly changed how players, teams, and games are evaluated.
Let’s see who John Hollinger is, his contributions to basketball analytics, the tricky maths behind his famous formulas and his lasting influence on the sport.
Who is John Hollinger?
John Hollinger, born on May 17, 1971, is a pioneering basketball analyst renowned for developing the Player Efficiency Rating (PER), amongs other metrics.
A University of Virginia alum, Hollinger started his career by creating the website Alleyoop in 1996, which gained attention for its insightful analysis and was recognized by notable publications like The Wall Street Journal.
His work focuses on quantifying players’ contributions through metrics like offensive and defensive ratings.
Hollinger’s career progressed from being a sports editor at OregonLive.com to the basketball editor at SI.com, where he launched the influential Pro Basketball Prospectus series.
In 2005, he joined ESPN, contributing through their subscription service before becoming the Vice President of Basketball Operations for the Memphis Grizzlies.
Currently, he is a Senior NBA columnist at The Athletic and a regular participant at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.
Hollinger’s Advanced Formulas
Player Efficiency Rating (PER)
One of Hollinger’s most famous contributions is the Player Efficiency Rating (PER), a metric designed to sum up a player’s statistical accomplishments in a single number.
PER measures a player’s per-minute performance, adjusted for pace, and normalized so that the league average is 15.
Detailed Mathematics of PER:
The PER formula is complex, involving numerous constants that adjust for different statistical achievements and league averages.
Here is a simplified overview:
Where Total Value Production includes terms for:
- Positive actions (field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals)
- Negative actions (missed shots, turnovers, personal fouls)
Each of these statistics is weighted by a factor derived from Hollinger’s analysis of their relative importance to winning games.
After calculating the uPER (unadjusted PER), the value is normalized to a league-average of 15 using a factor that adjusts for pace and scales the results:
True Shooting Percentage (TS%)
Hollinger also popularized the True Shooting Percentage, which measures a player’s efficiency at shooting the ball.
True Shooting Percentage (TS%) is an advanced basketball statistic developed by John Hollinger to measure a player’s efficiency at scoring.
TS% accounts for field goals, three-point field goals, and free throws, providing a more comprehensive assessment than traditional shooting percentages.
This metric helps to accurately evaluate a player’s shooting performance, factoring in all forms of scoring.
Game Score
The game score metric was developed by John Hollinger to provide an approximate measure of a player’s single-game productivity, using a scale akin to actual points scored—where 40 represents an outstanding performance and 10 denotes an average one.
This metric requires a complete modern box score for its calculation, incorporating elements such as offensive and defensive rebounds, steals, blocks, and turnovers.
The Hollinger Game Score can only be used for games played from the 1978 season onward, as comprehensive box score data from before this time is not available.
The formula is:
John Hollinger, A True NBA Stats Pioneer
John Hollinger’s contributions have had a lasting impact on how basketball is analyzed and understood.
His metrics, especially PER, have been widely adopted and continue to influence player evaluation and decision-making in NBA front offices.
His work exemplifies how data and analytics can change perceptions and strategies in professional sports, making him one of the pioneers in the field.
John Hollinger’s approach has inspired a generation of analysts and statisticians to develop their metrics and contribute to the evolving landscape of basketball analytics.
His methods have opened up new avenues for research and innovation, impacting not just professional teams but also the broader community of basketball punters and stats lovers.
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