FREE NBA EXPERT PICKS – 17/1/21

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*These NBA free picks and research are done the previous game day evening, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.


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NEW YORK @ BOSTON

PLAYER BETTING TRENDS

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MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Knicks are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
  • Under is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings in Boston.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
NY 5 8 2-4 3-4
BOS 8 3 4-1 4-2

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
NY 101.0 106.3 -5.3 207.3
BOS 114.0 109.9 +4.1 223.9

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
BOS UNDER NY
-7.0 213.5 105-75

After a week’s rest thanks to Covid, the Celtics came out full throttle and scored a 124-97 victory over the Magic on Friday. Tatum sat, but Jaylen Brown returned, tallying 20 points and 8 assists.

The Knicks sucked us in last time out as -2.5 favorites agains the Cavs and we paid the price, as they went down 106-103 in yet another Unders outing for the Knicks, which was also also their fifth loss straight.

Knicks have been garbage and haven’t been able to get out of each others way on the court.

PICK – BOSTON -7.0


WASHINGTON @ CLEVELAND

—> POSTPONED


CHICAGO @ DALLAS

PLAYER BETTING TRENDS

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MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Bulls are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.
  • Under is 13-6-1 in the last 20 meetings.
  • Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
CHI 4 8 1-3 3-5
DAL 6 5 2-1 4-4

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
CHI 116.8 121.6 -4.8 238.4
DAL 109.4 105.1 +4.3 214.5

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
CHI UNDER CHI
+7.5 226.5 117-101

The Bulls look to end a 4 game losing streak after falling to 4-8 following a 127-125 loss to OKC in OT on Friday night. The Bulls absultely shit the bed, chocking up a 22-point second-half lead in the loss.

The Mavericks dropped to 6-5 following a 112-109 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday.

The Bulls got the win agains the Mavs at home 118-108 on the 3rd Jan.

PICK – NO BET

IF YOU MUST – CHICAGO +7.5


PHILADELPHIA @ OKLAHOMA CITY

PLAYER BETTING TRENDS

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  • Danny Green has 12+ points in 5 of the 76ers’ last 6 games as favorites. (10.5
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has 25+ points in the Thunder’s last 3 games as underdogs against Eastern teams. (21.5)
  • Ben Simmons has 10+ rebounds in 4 of his last 5 games with Joel Embiid out. (8.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

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MATCHUP TRENDS

  • 76ers are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
  • 76ers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Oklahoma City.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
PHI 9 5 7-1 2-4
OKC 6 6 1-5 5-1

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
PHI 113.6 110.4 +3.2 224.0
OKC 106.0 112.1 -6.1 218.1

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
OKC UNDER
+3.5 222.5 POSTPONED

The trends are against the 76ers in this one, going 1-6 ATS over the last 7 against OKC, and after coughing up an absolutely winnable game last night as +1.5 underdogs against the Grizzlies, it gives us little faith tonight.

OKC have split their first 12 games and rank near the bottom of the NBA in scoring at 106.0 ppg. On Friday, the Thunder beat Chicago in OT by a 127-125 final score.

Horford (personal) will not play for the Thunder, which is a big hit.

Embiid (knee soreness) sits again for the 76ers.

PICK – NO BET

IF YOU MUST – OKLAHOMA CITY +3.5


UTAH @ DENVER

PLAYER BETTING TRENDS

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MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Jazz are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
  • Jazz are 2-9-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Denver.
  • Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
  • Under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Denver.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
UTA 8 4 2-2 6-2
DEN 6 6 3-4 3-2

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
UTA 110.7 105.4 +5.3 216.1
DEN 116.3 112.8 +3.5 229.1

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
DEN OVER UTA
+1.5 218.5 109-105

Trends are heavily against the Jazz here, going just 2-9-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Denver.

Utah, as we have said on a few occasions this season, are on our naughty list. For the foreseeable future we will not be outlaying any of our hard earned cash until they prove they can cover the spread once in their lives for us.

The 8-4 Jazz are on a four-game streak and rank fourth in the league in scoring defense  at 105.4 ppg.

Denver ran out to a 13-point lead after one quarter and rolled to a 114-104 home win over Golden State on Thursday.

The Jazz rank fourth in the league in defensively, while the Nuggets rank 23rd.

PICK – OVER 218.5 TOTAL POINTS


NEW ORLEANS @ SACRAMENTO

PLAYER BETTING TRENDS

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  • Harrison Barnes has 22+ points in the Kings’ last 4 games against the Pelicans. (16.5)
  • Richaun Holmes has 16+ points in the Kings’ last 3 games. (13.5)
  • Buddy Hield has 20+ points in 3 of the Kings’ last 4 games against the Pelicans at Golden 1 Center. (17.5)
  • De’Aaron Fox has 10+ assists in 4 of his last 5  games against the Pelicans. (5.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

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TREND BET

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WINNING BET

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Pelicans are 10-21-1 ATS in the last 32 meetings in Sacramento.
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Sacramento.
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Sacramento.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
SAC 5 8 4-5 1-3
NOR 4 7 2-3 2-4

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
SAC 113.6 123.2 -9.6 236.8
NOR 105.9 107.5 -1.6 213.4

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
NO OVER NOR
-1.5 226.5 128-123

The Pelicans are looking to end a five-game losing streak and rank near the bottom of the league in scoring at just 105.9 ppg. On Friday, they were outscored by 18 points during the second half of a 112-95 road loss against the Lakers.

The Kings have lost consecutive games and rank last in the league in points allowed, giving away a generous 123.2 ppg. On Friday, Sacramento was outscored by 21 points during the third quarter of an ugly 138-100 home loss against the Clippers.

The Kings rank last in the league defensively, and trends lean heavily to Overs.

PICK – OVER 226.5 TOTAL POINTS

PLAYER PROP BET

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Holmes averages 13.8 ppg and 7.6 rpg, but his minutes are increasing with coach Walton aware ever more of his importance. His last three games have seen him record 30+ minutes while his back-up Whiteside hasn’t had a game of 10+ minutes.

Holmes has played 29+ minutes in seven games this season, including in three of the last four. When he gets these minutes on the floor, he averages 18.1 ppg clearing the 13.5 points line in 6 of those 7 games.

He’ll match up against the Pelicans tonight which is a great match-up for centres this season, scoring 16% above league average.

PICK – RICHAUN HOLMES OVER 13.5 POINTS

RESULT – 15 POINTS

PLEASE GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY LADS.

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INDIANA @ LA CLIPPERS

PLAYER BETTING TRENDS

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  • Serge Ibaka has 15+ points in his last 8 home games against the Pacers. (13.5)
  • Kawhi Leonard has 28+ points in the Clippers’ last 5 games against Eastern teams. (27.5)
  • Domantas Sabonis has 22+ points in 4 of the Pacers’ last 5 games. (21.5)
  • Malcolm Brogdon has 22+ points in 4 of the Pacers’ last 5 games against Pacific teams. (20.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

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TREND BET

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MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Pacers are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
  • Pacers are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles.
  • Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings.
  • Over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
IND 8 4 4-3 4-1
LAC 9 4 4-2 5-2

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT.AV.
IND 114.3 108.2 +6.1 222.5
LAC 113.8 109.6 +4.2 223.4

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
IND OVER LAC
+8.5 219.5 129-96

The Pacers have won 8 of their first 12 and had last night’s game at Phoenix postponed due to COVID. On Thursday, they outscored the Trail Blazers by 23 points during the second quarter of a 111-87 road win.

The Clippers have won three straight games after outscoring Sacramento by 21 points during the third quarter to pull away for a 138-100 road win.

This is tough one, and would prefer to wait for total points markets, however trends are in favor of the Pacers.

PICK –  INDIANA +8.5