FREE NBA PLAYOFF PICKS
*Original NBA Playoff picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.
DP’S PLAYER PROP
SEASON RECORD: 63-40
Expert NBA Player Props Analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop.
DENVER VS LA CLIPPERS
Well, that was a comprehensive stress-free cover from Anthony Davis — hope you guys joined in the spoils in what was a long awaited returned to the winners circle.
My attention turns back to the Nuggets/Clippers series where I have a strong opinion on the Unders for J Murray because he is about to feel the brunt of the Clippers flex back court.
Denver shot out of the blocks in Game 2, clicking on 70% from the floor throughout the first half. Alongside Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray was the barometer returning 27 points 47% from the floor.
Impressive numbers – but he FADED hard in the second half and didn’t cash in on his Overs until 2 minutes remaining in the 4th after a hot start.
Murray box scored 40 minutes. Pat Beverly managed just 15 minutes courtesy of conditioning but also because he got chucked.
I expect Murray to get closely checked by Kawhi and Beverly. It’s going to be an intense, grind game — and if Murray can score 26+ which is +8 on his regular season average in Game 3 against the Clippers, then well done to you sir.
DP’S PICK – JAMAL MURRAY UNDER 25.5 POINTS – WIN
NBA PARLAY
- DENVER VS LA CLIPPERS – JAMAL MURRAY UNDER 25.5 POINTS
- DENVER VS LA CLIPPERS – KAWHI LEONARD UNDER 30.5 POINTS
ODDS – $3.83 – WIN
TREND BET
TORONTO VS BOSTON
TORONTO
- Under is 4-0 in Raptors last 4 games vs teams above .600.
- Under is 6-0 in Raptors last 6 vs teams above .500.
- Under is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Raptors last 4 overall.
BOSTON
- Under is 5-0-1 in Celtics last 6 games vs teams above .600.
- Under is 6-0 in Celtics last 6 vs teams above .500.
- Under is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0 in Celtics last 6 overall.
MATCHUP
- Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
TREND BET – UNDER 213.5 TOTAL POINTS – WIN
TORONTO VS BOSTON
SERIES TIED 2-2
PLAYER BETTING TRENDS
- Kyle Lowry has the first basket in the Raptors’ last 2 games.
- Serge Ibaka has 15+ points in 5 of the Raptors’ last 6 games. (13.5)
- Jayson Tatum has 9+ rebounds in 4 of the Celtics’ last 5 games. (8.5)
- OG Anunoby has 7+ rebounds in 4 of the Raptors’ last 5 games. (5.5)
- Pascal Siakam has 3+ assists in 23 of his last 31 games. (2.5)
- OG Anunoby has made 2+ three-pointers in the Raptors’ last 3 games. (1.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Celtics are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
- Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| GAME 4 | BOS | TOR | 93 : 100 |
| GAME 3 | BOS | TOR | 103 : 104 |
| GAME 2 | TOR | BOS | 99 : 102 |
| GAME 1 | TOR | BOS | 94 : 112 |
| 08.08.20 | TOR | BOS | 100 : 122 |
| 29.12.19 | BOS | TOR | 97 : 113 |
| 26.12.19 | TOR | BOS | 102 : 118 |
| 26.10.19 | BOS | TOR | 112 : 106 |
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| TOR | 53 | 19 | 26-10 | 27-9 |
| BOS | 48 | 24 | 26-10 | 22-14 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | AV. TOT |
| TOR | 112.8 | 106.5 | +6.3 | 219.3 |
| BOS | 113.7 | 107.3 | +6.4 | 221.0 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| TOR | UNDER | BOS |
| +1.5 | 213.5 | 111-89 |
Lowry, Siakam and VanVleet all played over 40 minutes in the Raptors’ 100-93 Game 4 win. All three will be counted upon again in Game 4 to produce similar output.
Toronto entered the 4th quarter with an 8-point lead and never seemed in danger from that point.
Lowry scored 22 points to go with 11 rebounds. VanVleet hit five 3-pointers among his 17 points as Toronto hit 17 of its 44 chances from deep (38.6%) after averaging 28.3% over Games 1-3.
Kemba Walker must be more aggressive after taking just nine shots in Game 3. Kemba hit just 1 of 6 from three as part of a larger issue for Boston, who as a team made just 7 of 35 shots from behind the line (20.0%).
Jaylen Brown also struggled with 14 points on 4-of-18 shooting, missing his first 9 shots from three before finally getting a make in the 4th quarter.
This is a pickem game, and trends lean heavily to Unders.
PICK – TORONTO +1.5 & UNDER 213.5 TOTAL POINTS
DENVER VS LA CLIPPERS
SERIES TIED 1-1
PLAYER BETTING TRENDS
- Gary Harris has scored the first basket in each of the Nuggets’ last two games.
- Montrezl Harrell has 15+ points in 5 of his last 6 games with the Clippers as favorites against the Nuggets. (11.5)
- Paul George has 7+ rebounds in 6 of the Clippers’ last 7 games. (6.5)
- Patrick Beverley has 5+ rebounds in 5 of his last 6 playoff games. (3.5)
- Paul George has made 4+ three-pointers in 3 of the Clippers’ last 4 games against the Nuggets. (3.5)
- Kawhi Leonard has 32+ points in 5 of the Clippers’ last 7 games. (30.5)
- Lou Williams has 17+ points in 5 of the Clippers’ last 7 games against the Nuggets. (14.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Under is 39-18 in the last 57 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| GAME 2 | LAC | DEN | 101 : 110 |
| GAME 1 | LAC | DEN | 120 : 97 |
| 13.08.20 | DEN | LAC | 111 : 124 |
| 29.02.20 | LAC | DEN | 132 : 103 |
| 13.01.20 | DEN | LAC | 114 : 104 |
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| LAC | 49 | 23 | 27-9 | 22-14 |
| DEN | 46 | 27 | 26-11 | 20-16 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | AV. TOT |
| LAC | 116.3 | 109.9 | +6.4 | 226.2 |
| DEN | 111.3 | 109.2 | +2.1 | 220.5 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| LAC | OVER | LAC |
| -7.5 | 219.5 | 113-107 |
The Nuggets brought it Game 2, earning a 110-101 win.
Jamal Murray’s 27 points and Jokic’s 26 helped the Nugs turn the tables, as Murray rebounded from a 12-point Game 1 outing. Denver adjusted defensively to collapse inside and block the passing lanes, resulting in the Kawhi Leonard delivering his worst performance of these playoffs.
Khawi’s run of scoring 29+ points in each game of the playoffs ended with just 13 points on 4-of-17 shooting to go with 4 turnovers.
Jokic was listed as questionable for Game 3 with a sprained right wrist, so we’ll have to keep an eye out closer to game time.
PICK – NO BET
