NBA PLAYOFF PICKS – 25/8/20

FREE NBA PLAYOFF PICKS

*Original NBA Playoff picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.

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DP’S PLAYER PROP

SEASON RECORD: 60-35

UTAH VS DENVER

Close out games are tough; period. Especially when you are playing a higher seed that know it’s lose and get you bitch-ass out of the Bubble — so that’s why I’m going back to Nikola Jokic to make this game a struggle for Utah on the defense end.

Coach Malone finally played his best hand by inserting Jerami Grant and Monte Morris into the starting line up. Although Monte did very little, he gave Jamal ‘some’ rest in on-ball duties, while Grant most importantly, caused some panic on D.

But. Boy. Oh. My. Denver seriously looked like a team that were defending a high PnR for the first time in the history of basketball, so I’m expecting significant adjustments made on that front. Otherwise, Mitchell is dropping another 50 – and that could the more sound prop bet.

But let’s focus on Nikola. What do we know? Well, he is going to clock up the minutes (39 in G4). He is going to shoot it at volume (24 shots in G4 – 50% on the floor). He has totaled 28+ points in 3 of 4 matches this series. The one game he went unders was in that devastating blowout loss.

Let’s be realistic. Malone is trying to find the balance between offense and defense and with Porter Jr losing out – Jokic and Murray need to move the needle.

DP’S PICK –   NIKOLA JOKIC OVER 23.5 POINTS – WIN

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NBA PARLAY

• UTAH VS DENVER – OVER 219.5 TOTAL POINTS
• UTAH VS DENVER – NIKOLA JOKIC OVER 23.5 POINTS

ODDS – $3.20 – WIN

PLAYER PROP PARLAY

• UTAH VS DENVER – NIKOLA JOKIC OVER 23.5 POINTS
• UTAH VS DENVER – DONOVAN MITCHELL OVER 26.5 POINTS

ODDS – $3.45 – WIN

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TREND BETS

DALLAS VS LA CLIPPERS

DALLAS

• Over is 6-1 in last 7 games vs teams above .600.
• Over is 4-1 in last 5 vs teams above .500.
• Over is 8-2 in last 10 games as an underdog.
• Over is 37-18 in last 55 games playing on 1 days rest.
• Over is 7-2 in last 9 overall.

LA CLIPPERS

• Over is 4-1 in last 5 vs teams above .500.
• Over is 7-2 in last 9 games as a favorite.
• Over is 5-1 in last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
• Over is 8-2 in last 10 overall.

MATCHUP

• Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

BET –  OVER 235.5 TOTAL POINTS – WIN

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UTAH VS DENVER

UTAH LEAD 3-1

PLAYER BETTING TRENDS

• Mike Conley has 24+ points in his last 7 playoff games. (18.5)
• Nikola Jokic has 6 assists or less in the Nuggets’ last 5 games. (7.5)
• Donovan Mitchell has 30+ points in 4 of the Jazz’s last 5 games against the Nuggets. (26.5).
• Nikola Jokic has 28+ points in 6 of the Nuggets’ last 7 games against the Jazz. (23.5)
• Jamal Murray has 6+ assists in 4 of the Nuggets’ last 5 games against the Jazz. (5.5)
• Jordan Clarkson has made 3+ three-pointers in 6 of the Jazz’s last 8 games. (2.5)
• Joe Ingles has 4+ rebounds in 12 of the Jazz’s last 16 playoff games. (3.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

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MATCHUP TRENDS

• Jazz are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
• Under is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings.

SEASON SERIES

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/- 

PICKS ATS

The Jazz went 0-3 against the Nuggets during the regular season, but they aren’t having the same issues in the playoffs.

The 6th seed Jazz are poised to advance against 3rd seed Denver tonight after dropping the first game in overtime, Utah has won the last three to take a 3-1 lead in the series.

The Jazz won Games 2 and 3 by 19 and 37 points, but Game 4 was a tighter affair. Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 51 points, 18 of which came in the 4th quarter, enough to survive 50 points from Nuggets star guard Jamal Murray.

Denver coach Michael Malone juggled his lineup in Game 4, inserting Monte Morris and Jerami Grant and brought Michael Porter Jr. and Paul Millsap off the bench. Denver still struggled on the defensive end with Utah hit 14 of 29 from 3-point range and shot 57.5% overall. Utah is shooting 51.3% from the floor and 43.3% from behind the arc in the series.

PICK  – OVER 219.5 TOTAL POINTS

PLAYER PROP

Game 5 is a a must-win for both sides. Utah will want to end the series asap but the Nuggets won’t go down without swinging.

Mitchell notched up 51 points in the Game 4, 129-127 win and got to the charity stripe 18 times while taking 27 field goals and 7 three-point attempts.

The volume of shots will be available again tonight for Mitchell to hit the 30+ point mark.

PLAYER PROP – DONOVAN MITCHELL OVER 26.5 POINTS – WIN

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DALLAS VS LA CLIPPERS

SERIES TIED 2-2

PLAYER BETTING TRENDS

• Marcus Morris Sr. has 14+ points in 7 of his last eight playoff games. (12.5)
• Tim Hardaway Jr. has 3+ three-pointers in the Mavericks’ last 4 games. (2.5)
• Luka Doncic has a triple-double in 4 of his 5 games in the bubble.
• Ivica Zubac has 10+ points in 5 of the Clippers’ last 6 games as favorites against the Mavericks. (9.5)
• Paul George has 8+ rebounds in 5 of his last 6 playoff games. (6.5)
• Kawhi Leonard has 32+ points in the Clippers’ last 3 games. (31.5)
• Paul George has 14 points or less in the Clippers’ last 3 games. (22.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

MATCHUP TRENDS

• Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
• Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

SEASON SERIES

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/- 

PICKS ATS

Despite playing on a sprained left ankle, Doncic put the Mavericks on his back in Game 4 and lifted them to victory. He led them back from a 21-point first-half deficit and later hit the game-winning 3-pointer at the overtime buzzer in the 135-133 win.

Doncic finished with 43 points, 17 rebounds and 13 assists, becoming the youngest player in league history with a 40-point playoff triple-double.

The Clippers likely would be on the verge of closing out the series if Paul George had played contributed at all. He’s shooting an awful 21.3% from the floor in this series, including 4-for-25 from 3-point range, going just 3-14 overall in Game 4.

Do we ride the back of Doncic or expect the Clippers and Paul George to restore order?

PICK – OVER 236.5 TOTAL POINTS