NFL – Divisional Round Picks – Saturday

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These free NFL picks and player prop picks are done the previous game day. Adjust selections should spreads and lineups change.

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HOUSTON TEXANS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

TEAM TRENDS

• The last 6 games between the Texans and Chiefs have gone OVER.
• The Chiefs have won their last 16 games as favs.
• The Chiefs have scored last in their last 7 home games.
• The Chiefs have covered in their last 6 postseason games.
• In each of the Chiefs’ last 3 games as favs, the first score has been a Chiefs touchdown.
• The Texans’ D/ST have scored a touchdown in their last 4 postseason games.
• Joe Mixon has scored a TD in 7 of his last 9 road games.
• Joe Mixon has recorded 57+ rushing yards in 8 of his last 9 road games.
• Kareem Hunt has scored a TD in each of his last 4 postseason games.
• Nico Collins has scored a TD in the Texans’ last 2 games.
• Dalton Schultz has recorded 29+ receiving yards in each of the Texans’ last 4 road games.
• C.J. Stroud has recorded 232+ passing yards in 6 of the Texans’ last 9 games.
• Xavier Worthy has scored a touchdown in each of the Chiefs’ last 3 games as favs.
• Travis Kelce has scored a TD in each of the Chiefs’ last 5 Divisional Round games.
• Travis Kelce has recorded 71+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last 13 postseason games.
• Isiah Pacheco has scored a TD in 4 of the Chiefs’ last 5 postseason games.
• Isiah Pacheco has recorded 59+ rushing yards in each of the Chiefs’ last 5 postseason games.
• Patrick Mahomes has scored a TD in each of the Chiefs’ last 2 games vs. the Texans.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 260+ passing yards in 5 of the Chiefs’ last 6 home games.
• Patrick Mahomes has not thrown an interception in his last 6 games.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 26+ completions in each of the Chiefs’ last 8 games as heavy favs.
• Marquise Brown has recorded 25+ receiving yards in 25 of his last 26 home games.
• DeAndre Hopkins has recorded 4+ receptions in each of his last 7 home games.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

MATCH PREVIEW

Kansas City kick off their playoff run in the Divisional Round, aiming for a historic third straight Super Bowl appearance, as they host the Texans at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs are eyeing their seventh straight AFC Championship appearance.

Houston earned its spot in this round with a commanding 32-12 victory over the Chargers in the Wild Card Round, marking their sixth game this season forcing three or more turnovers. The Texans will need to replicate that defensive performance to reach their first-ever AFC Championship game.

This is a tough rematch for the Texans, who still feel the sting of their 51-31 loss to Kansas City in the same round five years ago, where they squandered a 24-0 lead. Since Patrick Mahomes became the Chiefs’ starting quarterback in 2018, Kansas City has gone a perfect 6-0 in the Divisional Round.

These teams last met in Week 16, where the Chiefs won 27-19 at home, benefiting from a pair of intercepted passes by C.J. Stroud.

PICK – OVER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS @ DETROIT LIONS

NFC Divisional Playoffs – Ford Field, Detroit, MI

TEAM TRENDS

• The Lions have covered in 8 of their last 10 games vs. NFC opponents.
• The Lions have won 14 of their last 15 games.
• Each of the Commanders’ last 4 road games have gone UNDER.
• The Lions have been the first to 15 points in 15 of their last 16 games vs. NFC opponents.
• The Commanders have scored last in each of their last 5 games as underdogs.

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/-

PICKS ATS

MATCH PREVIEW

The Lions will host the Commanders at Ford Field in a high-stakes NFC Divisional Round matchup, with a spot in the NFC Championship game on the line.

The Commanders, led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, made history with a 23-20 victory over the Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round, marking Washington’s first playoff win since 2005. However, Daniels and the Commanders will need to overcome a major hurdle, as Washington hasn’t won at Ford Field since 2008.

The Lions, fresh off a first-round bye after securing the NFC’s top seed, are poised to return running back David Montgomery from an MCL injury. The combination of Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs could create big challenges for a Washington defense that ranked third in most rushing yards allowed during the regular season. With the best regular season in franchise history behind them, the Lions enter this game with high expectations and a strong chance to advance to the NFC Championship.

PICK – DETROIT -8.5