Western Conference Finals Picks – Game 5 – Golden State @ Houston, Toyota Center.
*Original betting lines and lineups taken game morning, adjust accordingly.
The original lines for each game are taken a couple of hours prior to the tip-off, so adjust your picks accordingly should a line change.
Western Conference Finals – Game 5
Golden State @ Houston
- Western Conference Final – Game 5
- Series Tied 2-2
H2H Trends
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Houston.
Golden State are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Houston.
Season Series
| GAME 4 | Golden State | Houston | 92 : 95 |
| GAME 3 | Golden State | Houston | 126 : 85 |
| GAME 2 | Houston | Golden State | 127 : 105 |
| GAME 1 | Houston | Golden State | 106 : 119 |
| 21.01.18 | Houston | Golden State | 116 : 108 |
| 05.01.18 | Houston | Golden State | 114 : 124 |
| 18.10.17 | Golden State | Houston | 121 : 122 |
Win/Loss
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | AWAY |
| Houston | 65 | 17 | 34-7 | 31-10 |
| Golden State | 58 | 24 | 29-12 | 29-12 |
Season Points +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPP PPG | DIFF |
| Houston | 112.4 | 103.9 | +8.5 |
| Golden State | 113.5 | 107.5 | +6.0 |
Picks against the spread
| Spread | O/U Points | Result |
| Houston | Under | Houston |
| +1.0 | 218.5 | 98-94 |
With a 10-point deficit heading into the 4th quarter and a 3-1 series hole, the Rockets came alive late, holding the Warriors to 12 last quarter points and reestablishing home-court advantage.
The Warriors held Houston to 39% shooting in Game 4 but gave up 34 points in the 2nd quarter and 25 in the 4th, with defensive consistency an area of concern. Golden State had 16 turnovers and 3 for 18 shooting in the final quarter, with lack of ball movement un-Warriors like.
The Warriors will need Iguodala back on the defensive end, and a healthy Klay Thompson to suit up to stay in this one tonight.
Harden led all scorers in Game 4 with 30 points on an 11-for-26 shooting. CP3 added 27 points and four assists. PJ Tucker lived full-time on the glass grabbing 16 boards and zero points.
The number of free throws has decreased through the series as sides have made the required adjustments defensively.
When a Series is tied at 2-2, the Game 5 winner wins the series over 80% of the time, and with this in mind we expect a lift in defensive urgency, as we saw last night in a low scoring 96-83 Celtics win over the Cavs in their Game 5.
The Under is 6-1 in the Golden State’s last 7 and 4-0-1 in their last 5 after a loss. The Under is also 11-4 in Houston’s last 15 following a win and 15-7 in their last 22 at Toyota Center. But wait, there’s more, with the Under also 7-3 in the last 10 matchups between these two and 6-2 in the last 8 matchups in Houston.
Unders best.
Best Bet = Under 218.5 and Houston +1.0
