FREE NBA PLAYOFF PICKS
*Original NBA Playoff picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.
DP’S PLAYER PROP
SEASON RECORD: 62-36
Expert NBA Player Props Analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop.
OKLAHOMA CITY VS HOUSTON
Finally, at last, James Hardens’ total has been scaled back to something more appetizing and in what is a close out game, I’m keen to take play the overs.
Whilst Harden is returning ‘just’ 31.8 ppg this series (down on his season average), there are many mitigating circumstances as to why this is the case.
Game 2. Harden returned 21 points on 5-16 shooting (and he is still averaging 49.5% on the floor this series). He is coming off an incredibly soft 28 minutes in a blowout win, where he scored 31 points on 73%.
The Lakers are waiting in the wings, and I have no doubt the Rockets want to end this series ASAP while getting some decent burn into their starting unit after the mini-break.
OKC are going to make the Rockets earn it – so we could be gifted a heavy box score log from Harden.
The inclusion of Westbrook won’t and doesn’t reduce Harden’s offensive usage nor production – it’s a close out game, do not forget that. The Rockets run an extremely skinny second unit – this is a cash splash.
DP’S PICK – JAMES HARDEN OVER 32.5 POINTS
TREND BET
MILWAUKEE VS MIAMI
MIAMI
- Under is 4-1 in last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-1 in last 5 games vs teams above .600.
- Under is 6-2 in last 8 vs teams above .500.
MILWAUKEE
- Under is 10-2 in last 12 games vs teams above .600.
- Under is 13-6-2 in last 21 vs teams above .500.
- Under is 8-3 in last 11 games following a victory.
MATCHUP
- Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
TREND BET – UNDER 222.5 TOTAL POINTS
*Strongest trend bet of the night. If trends are your thing, this is your pick.
MIAMI VS MILWAUKEE
SERIES OPENER
PLAYER BETTING TRENDS
- Goran Dragic has 20+ points in 7 of the Heat’s last 8 playoff games. (18.5)
- Giannis has the first basket in 6 of the Bucks’ last 11 playoff games.
- Duncan Robinson has 21+ points in 4 of the Heat’s last 5 games as underdogs. (12.5)
- Wesley Matthews has 2+ three-pointers in 10 of his last 12 playoff games. (1.5)
- Giannis has 15+ rebounds in 4 of the Bucks’ last 5 playoff games. (14.5)
- Bam Adebayo has 5+ assists in 4 of the Heat’s last 5 games against the Bucks. (4.5)
- Khris Middleton has made 3+ three-pointers in the Bucks’ last 3 games. (2.5)
- Tyler Herro has 16+ points in 7 of the Heat’s last 9 games. (15.5)
- Jimmy Butler has 22+ points in 7 of his last 10 playoff games. (20.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| 07.08.20 | MIL | MIA | 130 : 116 |
| 03.03.20 | MIA | MIL | 105 : 89 |
| 27.10.19 | MIL | MIA | 126 : 131 (121 : 121) |
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| MIA | 44 | 29 | 29-7 | 15-22 |
| MIL | 56 | 17 | 30-5 | 26-12 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | AV. TOT |
| MIA | 112.0 | 109.1 | +2.9 | 221.1 |
| MIL | 118.7 | 108.6 | +10.1 | 227.3 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| MIA | UNDER | MIA |
| +6.5 | 222.5 | 115-104 |
Jimmy Butler and Giannis go head-to-head as the 5th-seeded Heat and top-seeded Bucks square off in their series opener. The two met just once in the regular season, with Butler’s Heat’s getting a nice 105-89 home win on March 3rd. Butler had 18 points in the win, while Giannis was held to just 13 points to go with 15 rebounds.
The East rivals ranked 4th (Bucks, 13.8 per game) and 6th (Heat, 13.4) in 3-pointers made during the regular season.
Both defended the 3-point line well in their first round wins. Miami holding Indiana to 12.0 made-threes per game at 37.5%, while Milwaukee limited Orlando to 15.0 per game at 37.7%.
The Heat match up very well against the Bucks and are 2-1 in the season series.
PICK – MIAMI +6.5
OKLAHOMA CITY VS HOUSTON
HOUSTON LEAD 3-2
PLAYER BETTING TRENDS
- James Harden has 9+ assists in the Rockets’ last 6 games in the Bubble. (7.5)
- Eric Gordon has 18+ points in 4 of the Rockets’ last 5 games against the Thunder. (16.5)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has 4+ assists in the Thunder’s last 3 games. (3.5)
- P.J. Tucker has 2+ three-pointers in 15 of the Rockets’ last 19 playoff games. (1.5)
- Dennis Schroder has 21+ points in 10 of his last 14 games with the Thunder as underdogs. (19.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Rockets are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| GAME 5 | HOU | OKC | 114 : 80 |
| GAME 4 | OKC | HOU | 117 : 114 |
| GAME 3 | OKC | HOU | 119 : 107 (104 : 104) |
| GAME 2 | HOU | OKC | 111 : 98 |
| GAME 1 | HOU | OKC | 123 : 108 |
| 21.01.20 | HOU | OKC | 107 : 112 |
| 10.01.20 | OKC | HOU | 113 : 92 |
| 29.10.19 | HOU | OKC | 116 : 112 |
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| HOU | 44 | 28 | 24-12 | 20-16 |
| OKC | 44 | 28 | 23-14 | 21-14 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | AV. TOT |
| HOU | 117.8 | 114.8 | +3.0 | 232.6 |
| OKC | 110.4 | 108.4 | +2.0 | 218.8 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| HOU | UNDER | OKC |
| -6.5 | 226.5 | 104-100 |
Harden had his best showing of the series as the Rockets cruised to a 114-80 win that secured a 3-2 series lead. Harden scored 31 points on just 15 shots (86.7% field goal percentage while playing only 28 minutes in the blowout.
The Rockets pressured Shai Gilgeous-Alexander into 2-for-8 shooting and went to forward Danilo Gallinari, who totaled a series-low one point on 0-for-5 shooting. Their aggressive defensive rotations left Dort open by design, and he missed 13 of 16 shots (0-for-9 from three point range).
OKC shot just 31.5% in Game 5 and missed 39 of 46 3-pointers.
The Rockets have averaged a 20.7-point margin of victory in their three series wins, showing that when things go well, they go very well.
Houston to advance.
PICK – UNDER 226.5 TOTAL POINTS
