NBA FINALS: GAME 5 – MIAMI @ LA LAKERS

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DP’S PLAYER PROP

SEASON RECORD: 74-49

Expert NBA Player Props analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop.

LEBOOK THE POINTS

The Lakers are 48 minutes away from becoming the 2019/20 NBA Champions and there are so many narratives unfolding between our very eyes, which I will be unpack in a post-season wrap but for now the stage is set for LeBron to take over and book it.

LeBron has been feeling it all series long, returning 28 ppg on 53% from the floor which for the record is the most efficient he has been this post-season in the bubble.

With a 4th ring in sight, LeBron will be on a mission to ensure there is no Game 6 – so we can expect 18-20 shots on the floor, high minutes and a show-reel of straight line drives.

If LBJ’s closes out like the way he has done all post-season (38/16/10 vs Denver) & (29/11/7 vs Houston – in just 31 minutes) we should be tracking to 30 points throughout.

See you next season punters.

PICK – LEBRON JAMES OVER 28.5 POINTS – WIN

SAME GAME MULTI

PLAY IT SAFE

The Lakers won’t be playing around tonight, and as said above LeBron has a 94% success rate in series close-out games.

• LA LAKERS WIN 

Jimmy has been a dime machine in this series, and the 7.5 assist line is just too tempting to pass up again. Plenty of drive and dish to the outside shooters expected, and a few more if Adebayo can throw a few down in the paint.

• JIMMY BUTLER 6+ ASSISTS

LeBron has won 17 of his last 18 games with a chance to clinch the series. A 94% winning percentage. The King knows he must produce something special in Game 5 to lock up the Finals MVP and he is a legacy chaser if there ever was one.

• LEBRON JAMES 25+ POINTS

Very conservative alternate Overs line for some extra glazing on the donuts.

• OVER 204.5 POINTS (ALT LINE)

ODDS – $2.62

MIAMI @ LA LAKERS

LA LAKERS LEAD 3-1

PLAYER BETTING TRENDS

• Jae Crowder has 6+ rebounds in his last 8 Game 5s of a playoff series. (5.5)
• Bam Adebayo has 10+ rebounds in 7 of his last 10 games at this venue. (9.5)
• Rajon Rondo has 7+ assists in 8 of his last 11 playoff games against the Heat. (6.5)
• Anthony Davis has a double-double in 22 of his last 31 playoff games.
• LeBron James has 29+ points in his last 6 playoff series closeout games. (28.5)
• Kyle Kuzma has made 2+ three-pointers in the Lakers’ last 3 games. (1.5)
• Jimmy Butler has 9+ assists in the Heat’s last 3 games. (7.5)
• Duncan Robinson has 13+ points in 8 of the Heat’s last 11 playoff games at this venue. (11.5)

MATCHUP TRENDS

• Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.

SEASON SERIES

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/- 

PICKS ATS

RIP to those who took the Lakers -7.5 in Game 4, with a Miami junk-time three-pointer with just seconds leaving the final score 102-96.

Miami just couldn’t make the plays that mattered down the stretch, and failed to connect on 21 of their 32 three-point attempts, shooting 43% overall.

Jimmy Butler had a team-high 22 points with 10 rebounds and 9 assists, while Herro added 21 points and 7 rebounds.

The Lakers made 18 of their 21 free-throw attempts and assisted on 25 of their 35 field goals.

LeBron led all scorers with 28 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists, while his partner in crime AD notching 22 points (8-16 FG) and 9 rebounds.

Dragic (foot) participated in warmups prior to Game 4 but was ruled out. Will check back closer to game time to check on his situation.

The -7.5 line for the Lakers has not changed after Game 4, and although we like the Lakers to end it tonight, the Heat should stick close. Better value in the total points.

LeBron has won 17 of his last 18 games with a chance to clinch the series. A 94% winning percentage.

PICK  – LA LAKERS/LA LAKERS HT/FT