FREE NBA TIPS – BOSTON @ MIAMI – 23/9/20

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*Original NBA Playoff picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.

DP’S PLAYER PROP

SEASON RECORD: 72-44

Expert NBA Player Props analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop.

BOSTON @ MIAMI

The-Not-So-Nice-Theis

Through three games in the Eastern Conference Finals, Boston’s Euro-big isn’t showing enough productivity for me at either end of the floor, which presents a lucrative opportunity to take him on the collective unders for Points, Rebounds & Assists.

Whichever you look at it – for this bet to click, we ultimately we need Theis to have limited impact at both ends, and true to the Miami Heat blueprint, the “Not-So-Nice-Theis” is finding it hard to firstly manufacture points/opportunities for team mates and secondly impact the glass.

Miami’s interior is robust, boasts strong IQ and protects the rim on every single possession and this largely falls on the evolution of Bam Adebayo – the glue for this Miami defense.

The Not Theis Story:

In Game 1:overtime loss and buffed minutes, Theis returned 10 PRA and fouled out.

In Game 2: 5 points loss, wire-to-wire result – Theis returned a winning 17 PRA courtesy of an extension of his rebounds (totalling 8).

In Game 3: 24 minutes of action, Theis returned 15 PRA (totalling 0 assists).

To adjudicate fairly, Theis is 1-2 on the 16.5, with the 1 win coming at the expense of .5

In Game 1 and 2 – Hayward anxiously watched on the sidelines.

In Game 3 – Hayward soaked up a vast majority of Theis’ minutes, pinched a handful of rebounds, stole a ton of touches in-and-around the paint and made Theis fairly redundant.

Whilst Theis was a super handy asset in the regular season, the situational match-ups with him on court favours the Miami Heat. By enabling Hayward to play more of that 5 role (keep in mind, Hayward and Theis are both 6’8) the Celtics can effectively stretch the Miami defense, create better looks and drag Bam away from home base.

Finally, if I haven’t filled you up with enough confidence, Theis is averaging 4.7 shots per game in this series (that’s a -29% drop from the regular season) and whilst 17 PRA is a seriously tiny number – I can see the euro-big being starved for stats accumulation for long periods.

PICK – DANIEL THEIS UNDER 16.5 PRA 

SAME GAME MULTI

• BOSTON @ MIAMI – MIAMI +8.5 (Alt line)
• BOSTON @ MIAMI – OVER 204.5 (Alt line)
• BOSTON @ MIAMI – JIMMY BUTLER OVER 19.5 POINTS

ODDS – $3.55 – WIN

BOSTON @ MIAMI

MIAMI LEAD SERIES 2-1

PLAYER BETTING TRENDS

• Jae Crowder has made 3+ three-pointers in 8 of the Heat’s last 9 games as underdogs. (2.5)
• Jayson Tatum has 10+ rebounds in 7 of the Celtics’ last 8 games as favorites. (9.5)
• Marcus Smart has 14+ points in the Celtics’ last 5 games. (12.5)
• Bam Adebayo has 18+ points in the Heat’s last 5 games as underdogs. (16.5)
• Jaylen Brown has 21+ points in 5 of the Celtics’ last 6 games. (19.5)
• Goran Dragic has 20+ points in 4 of the Heat’s last 5 games against the Celtics. (18.5)
• Kemba Walker has made 3+ three-pointers in 5 of the Celtics’ last 6 games against the Heat. (2.5)
• Daniel Theis has 7+ rebounds in 8 of the Celtics’ last 10 games. (6.5)
• Jimmy Butler has scored 20+ points in 6 of his last 8 games against the Celtics. (19.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

SEASON SERIES

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/- 

PICKS ATS

The Celtics dropped the first two games before a solid wire-to-wire 117-106 Game 3 win Saturday. The game was followed by 3 days off for scheduling.

The Celtics planned for the break and gave heavy minutes to their stars in Game 3, with Jaylen Brown, Tatum and Kemba Walker each playing more than 40 minutes, coming for 72 points.

Gordon Hayward (ankle) took the court for his first game since Aug. 17and played 31 minutes off the bench. With Hayward’s return, the Celtics held control in Game 3, shooting nearly 50% from the floor and outscoring Miami 60-36 in the paint, leading by as much as 20 in the 4th-quarter.

It was a much-needed outcome for a team that showed signs of cracking in the wake of another late-game meltdown in Game 2.

Miami’s output has been reliable so far in this series, with players stating the trust they have as a group as a factor., however after falling behind by double digits in the first 3 games (14 points in Game 1, 17 points in Game 2), more effort and urgency is required from the outset to avoid the taxing nature of catch-up basketball.

Butler is averaging 17.0 ppg through the first 3 games, handing over scoring responsibilities to Adebayo (22.0 ppg) and Dragic (21.7 ppg).

Butler will need to be more aggressive if the Heat are to forge further ahead.

Overs again? Yes please.

PICK  –  OVER 209.5 TOTAL POINTS