FREE NBA PLAYOFF PICKS
*Original NBA Playoff picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.
DP’S PLAYER PROP
SEASON RECORD: 62-35
Expert NBA Player Props Analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop.
OKLAHOMA CITY VS HOUSTON
Hopefully everyone enjoyed the Nikola Jokic spoils as he rattled in 21 first quarter points but my attention turns back to the Rockets/Thunder series which is locked up at 2-2.
With no Westbrook in sight and an extremely slim second unit McLemore and Rivers, I’m going back to Eric Gordon on the over 17.5 points.
Coming off his most recent performance, Gordon has finally settled into some offensive rhythm. For all the shots he missed prior to entering Game 4 (21/61 FG) — he made amends with a more resolute outing returning 23 points on 8/15 FG.
Although he has a license to pull up from beyond 23-feet, second to Harden, Gordon didn’t force any shots. He waited patiently in the wings for the Thunder double on Harden or had the vision to run and gun in transition. When Gordon winds up and loads power into his leg driving leg, he is crafty finisher and can draw contact.
Same principles apply tomorrow. He is too strong and fast for the Thunder guards and his ability to connect from deep makes him a lethal option to cover a 17.5 spread.
Flash to Splash.
DP’S PICK – ERIC GORDON OVER 17.5 POINTS
PLAYER PROP PARLAY
- OKLAHOMA CITY VS HOUSTON – ERIC GORDON OVER 17.5 POINTS
- MILWAUKEE VS ORLANDO – EVAN FOURNIER UNDER 17.5 POINTS
ODDS – $3.65
ORLANDO VS MILWAUKEE
ORLANDO LEAD 3-1
PLAYER BETTING TRENDS
- Wesley Matthews has 2+ three-pointers in 10 of his last 11 playoff games. (1.5)
- Nikola Vucevic has 26+ points in 4 of the Magic’s last 5 games as underdogs. (23.5)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo has 33+ points in the Bucks’ 3 previous games in the bubble. (30.5)
- Khris Middleton has 21+ points in the Bucks’ last 3 games at in the bubble. (19.5)
- Evan Fournier has 3+ three-pointers in 6 of the Magic’s last 8 games against the Bucks. (2.5)
- Eric Bledsoe has 6+ assists in 5 of his last 7 games against the Magic. (5.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Magic are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| GAME 4 | ORL | MIL | 106 : 121 |
| GAME 3 | ORL | MIL | 107 : 121 |
| GAME 2 | MIL | ORL | 111 : 96 |
| GAME 1 | MIL | ORL | 110 : 122 |
| 09.02.20 | ORL | MIL | 95 : 111 |
| 29.12.19 | MIL | ORL | 111 : 100 |
| 10.12.19 | MIL | ORL | 110 : 101 |
| 02.11.19 | ORL | MIL | 91 : 123 |
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| ORL | 33 | 40 | 18-17 | 15-23 |
| MIL | 56 | 17 | 30-5 | 26-12 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | AV. TOT |
| ORL | 107.3 | 108.3 | -1.0 | 215.6 |
| MIL | 118.7 | 108.6 | +10.1 | 227.3 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| MIL | UNDER | MIL |
| -13.5 | 227.0 | 118-104 |
The 8th-seed Magic gave a shock to the Bucks with a 122-110 win in Game 1. But 1st-seed Milwaukee have found their groove since that bump in the road, winning the last three games by an average of 14.7 points.
The Bucks aren’t going to take their foot off the pedal until they have sent Orlando packing, but that -14.0 line is heavy.
PICK – UNDER 227.0 TOTAL POINTS
PLAYER PROP – WESLEY MATTHEWS 1.5+ THREE POINTERS MADE (Wesley Matthews has 2+ three-pointers in 10 of his last 11 playoff games.)
PREMIUM PLAYER PROP
Fournier has not been productive against the Bucks, and a below average time overall since the restart. After averaging 18.8 ppg from 61 games during the regular season prior to the break, from 14.2 field goal attempts per game.
From his 9 games in the bubble, he is averaging just 13.1 ppg from the same amount of minutes (31 mins pg), going from 14.2 shot attempts per game pre-COVID, down to 11.7 in the bubble – now with less attempts than Terrence Ross and Markelle Fultz.
Fournier has cleared the set 17.5 points line just twice from his 9 games since the restart, and failing to clear it in the 4 games against the Bucks this series.
BET – EVAN FOURNIER UNDER 17.5 POINTS
OKLAHOMA CITY VS HOUSTON
SERIES TIED 2-2
PLAYER BETTING TRENDS
- Danuel House Jr. has 14+ points in 6 of his last 7 games with the Rockets as favorites. (13.5)
- P.J. Tucker has 3+ three-pointers in 6 of the Rockets’ last 7 playoff games. (1.5)
- Dennis Schroder has 21+ points in 10 of his last 13 games with the Thunder as underdogs. (19.5)
- Chris Paul has 22+ points in 5 of his last 7 playoff games against the Rockets. (20.5)
- James Harden has 37+ points in the Rockets’ 2 games against the Thunder. (36.5)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has 6 assists in the Thunder’s last 2 games. (3.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Thunder are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| GAME 4 | OKC | HOU | 117 : 114 |
| GAME 3 | OKC | HOU | 119 : 107 (104 : 104) |
| GAME 2 | HOU | OKC | 111 : 98 |
| GAME 1 | HOU | OKC | 123 : 108 |
| 21.01.20 | HOU | OKC | 107 : 112 |
| 10.01.20 | OKC | HOU | 113 : 92 |
| 29.10.19 | HOU | OKC | 116 : 112 |
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| HOU | 44 | 28 | 24-12 | 20-16 |
| OKC | 44 | 28 | 23-14 | 21-14 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | AV. TOT |
| HOU | 117.8 | 114.8 | +3.0 | 232.6 |
| OKC | 110.4 | 108.4 | +2.0 | 218.8 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| OKC | OVER | HOU |
| +4.5 | 225.5 | 114-80 |
Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder are two of the biggest reasons behind the Oklahoma City resurgence. Their poor form was a large reason why the Thunder fell behind 2-0, and now, their resurgence is a major factor in tying the series.
Houston has leaned on a small lineup, making up for a loss in rim protection by switching relentlessly and living and dying from beyond the arc.
In overtime of Game 3 and in the last minutes of Game 4, OKC Coach Donovan took out Steven Adams and went with their own small ball lineup, where 6-foot-10 Gallinari was their biggest man on the floor.
After going 6-for-13 from behind the arc in Game 1, Harden is just 11-for-39 from behind the 3-point line in the last three games. A large part of that has been the defense of rookie Luguentz Dort.
OKC are finding their groove.
PICK – OVER 223.5 TOTAL POINTS
PORTLAND VS LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS LEAD 3-1
PLAYER BETTING TRENDS
- C.J. McCollum has 28+ points in the Blazers’ last 5 games with Damian Lillard out. (26.5)
- Anthony Davis has 28+ points in 5 of his last 6 playoff games against the Blazers. (26.5)
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has 12+ points in the Lakers’ last 3 games. (10.5)
- LeBron James has 30+ points in the Lakers’ last 2 games. (27.5)
- Jusuf Nurkic has 13+ rebounds in 4 of his last 6 games against the Lakers. (10.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Trail Blazers are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| GAME 4 | POR | LAL | 115 : 135 |
| GAME 3 | POR | LAL | 108 : 116 |
| GAME 2 | LAL | POR | 111 : 88 |
| GAME 1 | LAL | POR | 93 : 100 |
| 01.02.20 | LAL | POR | 119 : 127 |
| 29.12.19 | POR | LAL | 120 : 128 |
| 07.12.19 | POR | LAL | 113 : 136 |
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| POR | 35 | 39 | 21-15 | 14-24 |
| LAL | 52 | 19 | 25-10 | 27-9 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | AV. TOT |
| POR | 115.0 | 116.1 | -1.1 | 231.1 |
| LAL | 113.4 | 107.6 | +5.8 | 221.0 |
Portland got the worst (short-term) news possible on Tuesday, with Damian Lillard confirmed out of Game 5 with a sprained right knee.
The Blazers came out strong in Game 1 with a gutsy 100-93 victory, exposing the Lakers’ below-average 3-point shooting and lack of backcourt depth.
But the Lakers have restored order to win the past three games by an average of 17 points.
Tough one to pick with the -13.5 line for the Lakers.
PICK – LA LAKERS -13.5
CJ MCCOLLUM OVER 26.5 POINTS (C.J. McCollum has 28+ points in the Blazers’ last 5 games with Damian Lillard out.)
