FREE NBA PLAYOFF PICKS
*Original NBA Playoff picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.
DP’S PLAYER PROP
SEASON RECORD: 72-46
Expert NBA Player Props analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop.
BOSTON @ MIAMI
Through 4 games this series, on 13.3 shot attempts per game, Bam is returning on average 21.5 points on 59% from the floor (with all 4 games surpassing his 17.5 prop total).
In what presents as a tricky close out game against the highly talented Boston Celtics, I expect an increased volume of hustle like buckets (paint, mid PnR, put backs and dunks) to play out after Herro-ball torched the Celtics from deep.
Stevens will have his Celtics locked in for a 48 minute arm-wrestle – and this will favour Miami’s inside big.
Bam is one of the NBA’s most versatile players – and regardless who has been guarding him (Theis, Williams and/or Hayward as of late) he has been able to either create his own shot off the dribble, which is a unique commodity for someone of his size. And has the ability to double down play after play on straight line drives with the end result being free throws (where he is averaging 7.5 attempts per game in this series which accounts for a +41% increase from the regular season).
PICK – Bam Adebayo Over 17.5 Points
BOSTON @ MIAMI
MIAMI LEAD SERIES 3-1
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Heat are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| GAME 4 | MIA | BOS | 112 : 109 |
| GAME 3 | MIA | BOS | 106 : 117 |
| GAME 2 | BOS | MIA | 101 : 106 |
| GAME 1 | BOS | MIA | 114 : 117 (106 : 106) |
| 05.08.20 | MIA | BOS | 112 : 106 |
| 29.01.20 | MIA | BOS | 101 : 109 |
| 05.12.19 | BOS | MIA | 112 : 93 |
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| BOS | 48 | 24 | 26-10 | 22-14 |
| MIA | 44 | 29 | 29-7 | 15-22 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | AV. TOT |
| BOS | 113.7 | 107.3 | +6.4 | 221.0 |
| MIA | 112.0 | 109.1 | +2.9 | 221.1 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| MIA | OVER | BOS |
| +3.5 | 213.0 | 121-108 |
Tonight Miami can earn their first NBA Finals appearances since the 2014 Wade/Lebron/Bosh Big-3 Era.
The 5th-seed Heat inched closer by holding off the 3rd-seeded Celtics 112-109 in Game 4 for a 3-1 lead. Boston hasn’t rallied to win a series after trailing 3-1 since beating the Philadelphia 76ers in the Eastern Finals in 1981.
The Heat have managed the 3-1 series lead despite beingout-rebounded and outshot both overall and on 3-pointers. Even the total points scored through 4 games (441-441) show that this series is far from one-sided.
The big difference is that the Heat have got up 6 more shots per game, mostly as a direct result of having forced 16.0 Boston turnovers per night while committing just 11.3 of their own. Turnovers have killed the Celtics in their last two defeats.
Game 4 had a different look, as Miami, who had gone up in the series using their depth, rode the strength of their four main scorers, three in the 20s and rookie Tyler Herro with a historic 37 point outing. The only 20-year-old to score more points in a playoff game than Herro was Magic Johnson (42).
Overs has lined our pockets, and we’re riding them again.
PICK – OVER 213.0 TOTAL POINTS
