Early Betting Tips for the NBA Playoffs

AUTHOR – MICHAEL RICHMOND

Early Betting Tips for the NBA Playoffs

We love watching NBA action and many of us love betting against the NBA odds during the regular season.

But what about during the playoffs? There has been a lot of banter over the last couple of years that the NBA Playoffs are rigged, particularly, the finals. Well, it’s debatable and if it is rigged … it isn’t how you think.

Let me explain.

Rigged?

Many people have talked about the finals over the last few seasons, particularly the Golden State Warriors not getting whistled while the Cavs, would get charging calls overturned and changed to blocking calls against them. But remember when the Cavs came back and accomplished what has never before happened: won 4 straight in the finals after being down 0-3? They won game seven fair and square but honestly, as an NBA fan who isn’t invested in either the Warriors or the Cavs, I can say that it should never have gotten to game 7.

So it isn’t rigged how you might think … at last not anymore. People don’t notice because they see one team get a bunch of horrible calls then the next day it goes completely the opposite way, and the other team gets the ‘bad bounce’. This is because it isn’t rigged for a particular team … but for as many of the late playoff series’ to go as long as possible.

Think about. Each game is worth millions of dollars in revenue. Advertising revenue alone for a Game 7 between a matchup like the Cavs (with Lebron) and the Warriors comes in at around 45 million dollars. Tim Donaghy, a former NBA ref, came out and said that the decision to suspend Draymond Green for Game 5 in the 2016 Finals (the Warriors best defensive player) was based on giving the Cavaliers a better chance at extending the playoffs. So, yeah … there is no direct evidence, but Refs like Donaghy, who have stated that officiating squads have been briefed to do whatever they can to keep playoff series’ alive is disconcerting at best.

Then again, the Warriors were simply unstoppable in 2018 and swept the Cavs in four games.

So Where Does this Leave Us?

For the earlier rounds of the playoffs, it shouldn’t affect your betting too much. But as you get to the Conference Finals and the NBA finals, you might want to stay away from betting the spread and even straight-up outcomes. Sticking to the Total and riding the OVER might be a bit safer.

2018 Finals – Cleveland vs Golden State

  • Game 1: Cavs 114, Warriors 128 the Total was OVER 217.5
  • Game 2: Cavs 103, Warriors 122 the Total went OVER 216.5
  • Game 3: Cavs 102, Warriors 110 and the Total was UNDER 216
  • Game 4: Cavs 85, Warriors 108, the Total went UNDER 216.5

2017 Finals – Cleveland vs Golden State

  • Game 1: Cavs 91, Warriors 113 the Total went way UNDER 225.0
  • Game 2: Cavs 113, Warriors 132 the Total went way OVER 222.0
  • Game 3: Cavs 113, Warriors 118 and the Total went OVER 227.0
  • Game 4: Cavs 137, Warriors 116 and the Total went OVER 227.0
  • Game 5: Cavs 120, Warriors 129, the Total broke well OVER 231.5

2016 Finals – Cleveland vs Golden State

  • Game 1: Cavs 89, Warriors 104 the Total went UNDER 211.0
  • Game 2: Cavs 77, Warriors 110 the Total went way UNDER 209.0
  • Game 3: Cavs 90, Warriors 120 and the Total went OVER 206.0
  • Game 4: Cavs 97, Warriors 108 and the Total went UNDER 206.5
  • Game 5: Cavs 112, Warriors 97, the Total pushed at 209.0
  • Game 6: Cavs115, Warriors 101, the Total went OVER 208.0
  • Game 7: Cavs 93, Warriors 89, the Total went UNDER 205.5

In the last three NBA Finals, there is an even split of OVERS and UNDERS cashing at 8 each. But, leaning the over might be more profitable in the Finals because the only reason the OVER didn’t cash more, is because the Cavs played so terribly for the first few games in the 2016 finals. Winning and losing can be messed with by the refs. The Total itself is a little harder to rig and the 50% outcome is proof of that.

The Home team has an 11-7 record in the Finals but betting this blindly you’d still be down.21 units. Backing favorites is a hair better at 12-6, though even winning twice as much, you’d still be down .05 units. Backing the home team against the spread in the Finals every time over the last 18 finals games would net you a whopping +1.42 units (10-8 ats) and backing game by game favorites would net you 3.43 units over the long haul.

So, the key to betting the playoffs is really picking your spots carefully, especially when it comes to the Finals.

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