Expert NBA Basketball Picks

9 GAMES – NBA TIPS – 18/12/19

December 18, 2019

FREE NBA PICKS

*Original NBA picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.

DP’S NBA PLAYER PROP

SEASON RECORD: 11-9

Expert NBA Player Props Analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop, exclusive to subscribers.

CHICAGO @ WASHINGTON

LaVine is a man on a mission right now for the Bulls who keep exchanging wins and losses throughout November.

The explosive guard has scored 30+ points in 3 of his past games whilst increasing his shot count to 20 attempts per game compared to his season average of 18.

LaVine is clearly the Bulls number 1 go-to option wire to wire, and his 45% on the floor throughout November indicates he is well up for the challenge.

Moving into this fixture, LaVine is primed for a massive stat line against the Wizards who concede an enormous amount of offensive traffic through the backcourt and a staggering 122 ppg.

DP’S BEST BET – Zach LaVine OVER 23.5 – WIN

TREND BETS

SEASON RECORD: 10-7

NEW ORLEANS @ MINNESOTA

PELICANS TRENDS

Over is 6-1 in last 7 road vs teams with home winning %’s below .400.
Over is 9-2 in last 11 vs teams below .500.
Over is 5-2 in last 7 road games.

TIMBERWOLVES TRENDS

Over is 6-0 in last 6 overall.
Over is 13-4 in last 17 vs teams below .500.
Over is 12-5 in last 17 home vs teams with a road winning %’s below .400.
Over is 21-10 in last 31 games as a home underdog.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Over is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings.

TREND BET – OVER 231.5

CHICAGO @ WASHINGTON

BULLS TRENDS

6-0 ATS in last 6 games as an underdog.
4-0 ATS in last 4 road games.
8-1 ATS in last 9 when their opponent scores 100+ points in their last game.
5-1 ATS in last 6 games overall.
5-2 ATS in last 7 vs teams below .500.

WIZARDS TRENDS

5-1 ATS in last 6 games following a win of 10+ points.
2-6 ATS in last 8 games as a home favorite.
2-7 ATS in last 9 games as a favorite.
1-4 ATS in last 5 vs teams below .500.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Bulls are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Bulls are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Washington.

TREND BET – CHICAGO +1.5

CHARLOTTE @ CLEVELAND

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

HORNETS TRENDS

7-0 ATS in last 7 road vs teams with home winning %’s below .400.
5-1 ATS in last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
16-5 ATS in last 21 vs teams below .400.
6-2 ATS in last 8 vs teams below .500.
Under is 5-1 in last 6 games as an underdog.
Under is 6-2 in last 8 overall.
Under is 6-2 in last 8 vs teams below .500.
Over is 5-2 in last 7 road games.

CAVALIERS TRENDS

3-7-1 ATS in last 11 home games.
20-47 ATS in last 67 home vs teams with losing road records.
4-13 ATS in last 17 games overall.
Under is 7-2 in last 9 home games.
Over is 8-3 in last 11 games as a favorite.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Hornets are 4-12-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
Hornets are 2-5-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Cleveland.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

PLAYER TRENDS

Terry Rozier has 13 points or less in the Hornets’ last 4 games. (16.5)
Cody Zeller has 9+ nine rebounds in 4 of the Hornets’ last 5 games. (7.5)
Darius Garland has 2 assists or less in 9 of the Cavaliers’ last 10 home games. (3.5)
Devonte’ Graham has 24+ points in 3 of the Hornets’ last 4 games on the 2nd leg of a back-to-back. (19.5)

WIN/LOSS

TEAM	W	L	HOME	ROAD
CHA	13	17	7-8	6-9
CLE	6	21	3-10	3-11

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM	PPG	OPPG	DIFF	TOT. AV
CHA	104.7	110.8	-6.1	215.5
CLE	103.7	114.2	-10.5	217.9

PICKS ATS

Spread	Points	Result
CLE	Over	CLE
-2.5	212.0	100-98

THE RUB

The Cavs are 1-10 over their last 11 games but have a slight chance tonight getting the Hornets at home while they are on a B2B. Although, Charlotte have been in good form on the road lately, stealing 2 out of 3 against the Bulls and Nets.

OUR PICK – Over 213.5

TORONTO @ DETROIT

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

RAPTORS TRENDS

11-3 ATS in last 14 vs teams below .500.
15-6 ATS in last 21 games as a favorite.
2-5 ATS in last 7 games overall.
1-4 ATS in last 5 road games.
Over is 6-1 in last 7 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1-1 in last 6 overall.
Under is 3-1-1 in last 5 road games.
Over is 9-4-1 in last 14 vs teams below .500.

PISTONS TRENDS

5-0 ATS in last 5 games following a loss of more than 10+ points.
6-15-1 ATS in last 22 games as an underdog.
3-10 ATS in last 13 vs teams above .600.
3-13-1 ATS in last 17 vs teams above .500.
Over is 5-0 in last 5 home vs teams with winning road records.
Over is 5-1 in last 6 home games.
Over is 19-7 in last 26 vs teams above .600.
Over is 8-3 in last 11 games as a home underdog.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Over is 13-6-1 in the last 20 meetings.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Detroit.

SEASON SERIES

SEASON SERIES ->

31.10.19
TOR
DET
125 : 113

PLAYER TRENDS

Pascal Siakam has 22 points or less in his last 10 road games against Central Division opponents. (24.5)

WIN/LOSS

TEAM	W	L	HOME	ROAD
TOR	18	8	11-3	7-5
DET	11	16	7-7	4-9

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM	PPG	OPPG	DIFF	TOT. AV
TOR	111.7	105.7	+6.0	217.4
DET	109.3	109.6	-0.3	218.9

PICKS ATS

Spread	Points	Result
TOR	UNDER	TOR
-2.0	218.0	112-99

THE RUB

The Pistons have renewed their healthcare subscription with Griffin and Drummond in the wars with the latter still nursing an allergic reaction to Avocado.

Even if the stars play, the Raptors big man brigade of Ibaka and Gasol have been solid of late.

OUR PICK – Toronto -2.0

MIAMI @ PHILADELPHIA

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

HEAT TRENDS

8-1 ATS in last 9 games following a straight up loss.
2-5 ATS in last 7 road games.
3-8 ATS in last 11 road vs teams with winning home records.
Over is 5-0 in last 5 overall.
Over is 5-0 in last 5 after scoring 100+ points in their last game.
Over is 3-1-1 in last 5 road games.

76ERS TRENDS

3-0-2 ATS in last 5 games as a home favorite.
3-0-2 ATS in last 5 home games.
7-2-1 ATS in last 10 vs teams above .600.
3-1-2 ATS in last 6 games overall.
9-4-1 ATS in last 14 vs teams above .500.
Under is 4-1 in last 5 vs teams above .500.
Under is 9-3-1 in last 13 games as a favorite.
Under is 20-8-1 in last 29 vs teams above .600.
Under is 9-4-1 in last 14 overall.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Heat are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Philadelphia.

SEASON SERIES

SEASON SERIES ->

24.11.19
PHI
MIA
113 : 86

PLAYER TRENDS

Al Horford has 16+ points in each of his last 4 games against the Heat. (11.5)
Kendrick Nunn has 13 points or less in the Heat’s last 8 games as road underdogs. (15.0)
Bam Adebayo has 11+ rebounds in the Heat’s last 6 games. (10.5)
Ben Simmons has 7 assists or less in the 76ers’ last 5 games against the Heat. (7.5)

WIN/LOSS

TEAM	W	L	HOME	ROAD
MIA	19	8	11-1	8-7
PHI	20	8	14-0	6-8

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM	PPG	OPPG	DIFF	TOT. AV
MIA	112.2	107.3	+4.9	219.5
PHI	109.3	104.1	+5.2	213.4

PICKS ATS

Spread	Points	Result
PHI	OVER	MIA
-7.0	209.0	108-104

THE RUB

The 76ers remain the only team in the league undefeated on home court and the Philly fans will be getting the ‘boos’ out again as they host their former SF, Jimmy Butler.

It wasn’t a great road trip from Jimmy and the Heat last time with Philadelphia almost closing out the contest by the half while winning by 27 points. The talls will be a problem again for Miami, and with the Heat relying on an 8-man rotation for the last few games, fatigue may set in.

OUR PICK – Philadelphia WIN

CHICAGO @ WASHINGTON

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

BULLS TRENDS

6-0 ATS in last 6 games as an underdog.
4-0 ATS in last 4 road games.
8-1 ATS in last 9 when their opponent scores 100+ points in their last game.
5-1 ATS in last 6 games overall.
5-2 ATS in last 7 vs teams below .500.
Under is 6-1 in last 7 vs teams below .400.
Over is 9-3 in last 12 vs teams below .500.
Over is 5-2 in last 7 road games.

WIZARDS TRENDS

5-1 ATS in last 6 games following a win of 10+ points.
2-6 ATS in last 8 games as a home favorite.
2-7 ATS in last 9 games as a favorite.
1-4 ATS in last 5 vs teams below .500.
Over is 6-1-1 in last 8 games following a win of 10+ points.
Over is 3-1-1 in last 5 vs teams below .500.
Over is 10-4 in last 14 vs teams below .400.
Over is 10-4 in last 14 home games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Under is 17-6 in the last 23 meetings in Washington.
Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Bulls are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Washington.

PLAYER TRENDS

Zach LaVine has 28+ points in 5 of the Bulls’ last 6 road games. (24.5)
Lauri Markkanen has 13 points or less in 4 of the Bulls’ last 5 games. (15.5)
Isaiah Thomas has 16+ points in his last 3 games. (13.5)

WIN/LOSS

TEAM	W	L	HOME	ROAD
CHI	10	19	6-10	4-9
WAS	8	17	4-6	4-11

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM	PPG	OPPG	DIFF	TOT. AV
CHI	105.5	107.4	-1.9	212.9
WAS	118.0	122.2	-4.2	240.2

PICKS ATS

Spread	Points	Result
CHI	OVER	CHI
+1.5	230.5	110-109 1OT

THE RUB

For the Wizard’s home games, their combined points and opposing points are a whopping 244.9 ppg. Even with the Bulls scoring woes, this alone gives us confidence the scoring will be free flowing.

OUR PICK – Over 229.5

NEW ORLEANS @ MINNESOTA

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

PELICANS TRENDS

17-6 ATS in last 23 road vs teams with home winning %’s below .400.
7-19 ATS in last 26 vs teams below .500.
1-10-1 ATS in last 12 games overall.
0-5-1 ATS in last 6 road games.
Over is 6-1 in last 7 road vs teams with home winning %’s below .400.
Over is 9-2 in last 11 vs teams below .500.
Over is 5-2 in last 7 road games.

TIMBERWOLVES TRENDS

2-5 ATS in last 7 vs teams below .400.
0-7 ATS in last 7 games overall.
0-5 ATS in last 5 games as an underdog.
0-7 ATS in last 7 home games.
Over is 6-0 in last 6 overall.
Over is 13-4 in last 17 vs teams below .500.
Over is 12-5 in last 17 home vs teams with a road winning %’s below .400.
Over is 21-10 in last 31 games as a home underdog.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Pelicans are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota.
Pelicans are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Over is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings.

PLAYER TRENDS

Jrue Holiday has 25+ points in the Pelicans’ last 3 games against the Timberwolves. (21.5)

WIN/LOSS

TEAM	W	L	HOME	ROAD
NOR	6	22	4-11	2-11
MIN	10	15	3-9	7-6

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM	PPG	OPPG	DIFF	TOT. AV
NOR	112.4	119.6	-7.2	232.0
MIN	114.7	118.1	-3.4	232.8

PICKS ATS

Spread	Points	Result
NOR	OVER	NOR
+8.5	231.5	107-99

THE RUB

The battle of the 1st and 2nd largest active losing streaks. The Pelicans are staring at a 14th loss while the Wolves are hoping to avoid loss number 8.

With Minnesota on home court and New Orleans on a B2B, they are the go ahead favorites although the trends are with the Overs.

OUR PICK – Over 231.5

MEMPHIS @ OKLAHOMA CITY

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

GRIZZLIES TRENDS

4-1 ATS in last 5 games overall.
2-5 ATS in last 7 games following a ATS win.
2-6 ATS in last 8 road vs teams with home winning %’s over .600.
Under is 4-1 in last 5 vs teams below .500.
Under is 4-1 in last 5 road games.
Under is 19-7 in last 26 road vs teams with home winning %’s over .600.

THUNDER TRENDS

6-1 ATS in last 7 vs teams below .500.
5-1 ATS in last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
9-3 ATS in last 12 games following an ATS loss.
5-2 ATS in last 7 home games.
1-5 ATS in last 6 vs teams below .400.
Under is 5-0 in last 5 games following a straight up win.
Over is 6-1 in last 7 games following an ATS loss.
Over is 15-5 in last 20 vs teams below .500.
Over is 6-2 in last 8 home games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Grizzlies are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Oklahoma City.
Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.

PLAYER TRENDS

Dennis Schroder has 21+ points in 4 of the Thunder’s last 5 games against West teams. (17.5)
Chris Paul has 30 points in the Thunder’s last 2 home games. (15.5)

WIN/LOSS

TEAM	W	L	HOME	ROAD
MEM	10	17	5-11	5-6
OKC	12	14	8-5	4-9

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM	PPG	OPPG	DIFF	TOT. AV
MEM	110.2	116	-5.8	226.2
OKC	107.6	107.2	+0.4	214.8

PICKS ATS

Spread	Points	Result
OKC	OVER	OKC
-6.5	219.0	126-122

THE RUB

Chris Paul has turned back the clock and has the Thunder in the seeding for now. I know it’s only December but the brass would be hoping for picks somewhere in the lottery while their Houston and Clippers picks will likely be in the 20s.

One home court, the Thunder have only dropped games to West opponents in the Blazers and Lakers.

OUR PICK – OKC WIN

ORLANDO @ DENVER

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

MAGIC TRENDS

4-0-1 ATS in last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
5-0 ATS in last 5 road games.
5-2 ATS in last 7 games overall.
4-9-1 ATS in last 14 vs teams above .500.
3-8-1 ATS in last 12 vs teams above .600.
Over is 5-1 in last 6 Wednesday games.

NUGGETS TRENDS

4-1 ATS in last 5 home vs teams with losing road records.
6-2 ATS in last 8 vs teams below .500.
Under is 6-0 in last 6 Wednesday games.
Under is 11-4 in last 15 home vs teams with losing road records.
Under is 24-10 in last 34 home games.
Under is 14-6 in last 20 overall.
Under is 35-16 in last 51 games as a favorite.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Magic are 4-12 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Denver.
Magic are 5-15-2 ATS in the last 22 meetings.

SEASON SERIES

SEASON SERIES ->

03.11.19
ORL
DEN
87 : 91

PLAYER TRENDS

Nikola Jokic has 20+ points in the Nuggets’ last 4 games as favourites. (17.5)
Jamal Murray has 22+ points in 3 of the Nuggets’ last 4 games as favourites against the Magic. (16.5)

WIN/LOSS

TEAM	W	L	HOME	ROAD
ORL	12	15	8-6	4-9
DEN	17	8	11-3	6-5

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM	PPG	OPPG	DIFF	TOT. AV
ORL	103.5	104.5	-1.0	208.0
DEN	106.5	101.7	+4.8	208.2

PICKS ATS

Spread	Points	Result
ORL	OVER	DAL
+10.5	204.5	113-104

THE RUB

The Magic started slow against the Jazz last night, but had every chance up 5 points with 3 minutes to go after rallying from a 12-point deficit early in the 4th. On a B2B, they will need to regroup quickly.

The Nuggets have won their last 3 at home by an average of 9.7 points while their season average margin against East opponents is 9 points.

OUR PICK – ORLANDO +10.5

BOSTON @ DALLAS

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

CELTICS TRENDS

11-2-2 ATS in last 15 when their opponent scores 100+ points in their last game.
10-3 ATS in last 13 vs teams above .500.
10-4-1 ATS in last 15 road vs teams with winning road records.
Under is 6-1 in last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Under is 7-2 in last 9 vs teams above .600.
Over is 9-4 in last 13 games as a road favorite.

MAVERICKS TRENDS

6-1 ATS in last 7 after allowing 100+ points in their last game.
12-3 ATS in last 15 games overall.
8-2-1 ATS in last 11 games as an underdog.
12-4 ATS in last 16 vs teams above .500.
13-5 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog.
35-16 ATS in last 51 vs teams above .600.
Over is 4-0 in last 4 overall.
Over is 7-2 in last 9 vs teams above .600.
Over is 6-2 in last 8 home games.
Over is 18-8 in last 26 after allowing 100+ points in their last game.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Celtics are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Dallas.
Celtics are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.

SEASON SERIES

SEASON SERIES ->

12.11.19
BOS
DAL
116 : 106

PLAYER TRENDS

Kemba Walker has 26+ points in his last 7 games against Southwest teams. (22.5)
Jaylen Brown has 7+ rebounds in 6 of the Celtics’ last 7 road games against West teams. (6.5)

WIN/LOSS

TEAM	W	L	HOME	ROAD
BOS	17	7	10-1	7-6
DAL	18	8	8-6	10-2

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM	PPG	OPPG	DIFF	TOT. AV
BOS	110.8	104.1	+6.7	214.9
DAL	118.2	109.2	+9.0	227.4

PICKS ATS

Spread	Points	Result
BOS	UNDER	BOS
-2.0	218.5	109-103

THE RUB

While the Bucks failed to captilize on the absence of Luka, the Celtics get their chance to close in on their East foes.

The Mavs bench was able to take care of the points output but may be stretched in the backcourt containing Kemba, Smart, Hayward, Brown and finally Tatum.

OUR PICK – BOSTON WIN

GOLDEN STATE @ PORTLAND

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

WARRIORS TRENDS

3-7 ATS in last 10 road vs teams with losing home records.
2-5 ATS in last 7 games overall.
2-5 ATS in last 7 vs teams below .500.
0-6-1 ATS in last 7 games following a 10+ loss at home.
Under is 5-1 in last 6 games following a loss of 10+ points.
Over is 4-1 in last 5 vs teams below .500.
Under is 4-1 in last 5 road games.
Under is 6-2 in last 8 overall.

TRAIL BLAZERS TRENDS

13-3 ATS in their last 16 Wednesday games.
22-10 ATS in their last 32 home vs teams with road winning %’s below .400.
1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight win.
Under is 4-0 in last 4 overall.
Under is 5-1 in last 6 vs teams below .400.
Over is 26-10-1 in last 37 home games.
Over is 21-9-1 in last 31 games as a home favorite.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Over is 22-9 in the last 31 meetings.
Warriors are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Over is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings in Portland.

SEASON SERIES

SEASON SERIES ->

05.11.19
GSW
POR
127 : 118

PLAYER TRENDS

Damian Lillard has 28+ points in 7 of the Blazers’ last 8 home games against the Warriors. (24.5)
Hassan Whiteside has 14+ rebounds in 5 of the Blazers’ last 6 games as favourites. (12.5)
D’Angelo Russell has 7+ assists in 5 of his last 6 games against West teams. (6.5)

WIN/LOSS

TEAM	W	L	HOME	ROAD
GSW	5	23	2-10	3-13
POR	11	16	5-6	6-10

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM	PPG	OPPG	DIFF	TOT. AV
GSW	104.3	113.7	-9.4	218.0
POR	112.2	114.1	-1.9	226.3

PICKS ATS

Spread	Points	Result
POR	OVER	POR
-9.5	219.0	122-112

THE RUB

Out of the 5 wins for Portland on home court, all but one have resulting in victories of over 11 points.

The Warriors got one of their 5 wins against the Blazers this year which was the beginning of Portland spiraling out of control. Maybe some payback on the menu.

OUR PICK – Portland -9.5