5 GAMES – NBA PICKS – 5/1/19

FREE NBA PICKS

*Original NBA picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.

DP’S PLAYER PROP

SEASON RECORD: 22-14

Expert NBA Player Props Analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop, exclusive to subscribers.

MEMPHIS @ PHOENIX

A soft Bogdanovic outing will not deter me from returning to the winners circle.
The Grizzlies vs Suns fixture is cherry-ripe for the picking with both teams in decent form, mirroring 3 respective wins from their past 4 games and most importantly all featuring in high scoring affairs.
One guy that I like in particular for the home side is Kelly Oubre Jr who is finally starting to display his offensive talents.
Whilst Booker might be regarded as the Suns’ number 1 scoring option, the correlation between Oubre Jr’s output and a Phoenix win is telling.
Oubre Jr has surpassed his prop line of 19.5 in 4 straight fixtures with his past 3 games returning 29, 26 & 29 whilst shooting 64% on the floor from 17 shot attempts. All of these metrics which are well above his season average.
Many points will be up for grabs tomorrow and if Kelly can take between 15-17 shots on the floor – we will be celebrating this one with ease.
DP’S PICK –  KELLY OUBRE JR OVER 19.5 POINTS

TREND BETS

SEASON RECORD: 15-16

PORTLAND @ MIAMI

TRAIL BLAZERS TRENDS

  • Under is 7-1 in last 8 road games.
  • Over is 37-18 in last 55 games vs teams above .600.
  • Over is 11-3 in last 14 vs teams above .500.

HEAT TRENDS

  • Over is 6-0-1 in last 7 vs teams below .500.
  • Over is 11-3-1 in last 15 games as a favorite.
  • Over is 10-3 in last 13 overall.
  • Over is 9-3 in last 12 home games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Miami.
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
TREND BET – OVER 219.0 – WINNING BET

*Strongest trend bet of the night. Not necessarily our pick.

If trends are your thing, this is your pick.

NEW YORK @ LA CLIPPERS

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

KNICKS TRENDS

  • 5-2 ATS in last 7 road games.
  • 18-38-1 ATS in last 57 games vs teams above .600.
  • Over is 5-0 in last 5 vs teams above .500.
  • Under is 11-5-1 in last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % over .600.

CLIPPERS TRENDS

  • 4-0 ATS in last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % below .400.
  • 8-2 ATS in last 10 games vs teams below .500.
  • 37-18-1 ATS in last 56 games vs teams below .400.
  • 5-2 ATS in last 7 home games.
  • 9-4 ATS in last 13 games overall.
  • Over is 5-1 in last 6 vs teams below .500.
  • Over is 4-1 in last 5 games vs teams below .400.
  • Over is 5-2 in last 7 overall.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Knicks are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
  • Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Marcus Morris has 15 points or less in each of his last 10 road games against the Clippers. (17.5)
  • Julius Randle has 27+ points in his last 2 games against the Clippers. (20.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
NY 10 25 5-12 5-13
LAC 25 12 15-4 10-8

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT. AV
NY 103.9 111.1 -7.2 215.0
LAC 115.3 109.2 +6.1 224.5

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
LAC OVER LAC
-8.0 220.5 135-132

The Clippers will try to rebound from a terrible 140-114 home loss to the Grizzlies on Saturday – their worst defensive scoring effort since Oct. 30, 2017 – to fall to 5-5 over their last 10 games. Paul George exiting the game early with a hamstring injury.

The Knicks’ season-best 3-game win streak ended Friday with a 120-112 loss at Phoenix, falling to 5-7 against the Western Conference, compared to 5-18 versus the East.

OUR PICK  – OVER 220.5

PORTLAND @ MIAMI

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

TRAIL BLAZERS TRENDS

  • 1-5-1 ATS in last 7 games overall.
  • 1-5 ATS in last 6 road games.
  • 1-8-2 ATS in last 11 games vs teams above .600.
  • 0-5 ATS in last 5 games vs teams above .500.
  • Under is 7-1 in last 8 road games.
  • Over is 37-18 in last 55 games vs teams above .600.
  • Over is 11-3 in last 14 vs teams above .500.

HEAT TRENDS

  • 8-1 ATS in last 9 games following a straight up loss of 10+ points.
  • 13-4-1 ATS in last 18 home games.
  • 2-5 ATS in last 7 games vs teams below .500.
  • 1-4-1 ATS in last 6 games overall.
  • Over is 6-0-1 in last 7 vs teams below .500.
  • Over is 11-3-1 in last 15 games as a favorite.
  • Over is 10-3 in last 13 overall.
  • Over is 9-3 in last 12 home games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Trail Blazers are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
  • Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Miami.
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Damian Lillard has 35+ points in 5 of the Blazers’ last 6 road games against Southeast teams. (25.5)
  • Goran Dragic has 15+ points in 5 of his last 6 games against the Blazers. (13.5)
  • Bam Adebayo has 18+ points in 6 of the Heat’s last 6 games as home favourites. (16.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
POR 15 21 8-9 7-12
MIA 25 10 16-1 9-9

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT. AV
POR 112.3 113.8 -1.5 226.1
MIA 110.8 107.2 +3.6 218.0

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
POR OVER MIA
+6.0 219.0 122-111

Miami have put together some of their worst offensive efforts in the past week.  After averaging 114.8 ppg during a 5-game winning streak, they have lost 123-105 at Washington, survived an 84-76 defensive battle with Toronto and then suffered a 105-85 loss at Orlando on Friday.

The Blazers snapped a 5-game slide with a 122-103 win at Washington on Friday. Whiteside will be making his first trip back to Miami since moving to Portland in a 4-team trade last July to end a 5-year run with the Heat.

OUR PICK  – PORTLAND +6.0

MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

TIMBERWOLVES TRENDS

  • 4-1 ATS in last 5 games overall.
  • 3-1-1 ATS in last 5 road games.
  • 1-5 ATS in last 6 games vs teams below .400.
  • 1-4 ATS in last 5 games as a favorite.
  • Under is 4-0 in last 4 games vs teams below .400.
  • Under is 5-0 in last 5 road games.
  • Under is 8-1 in last 9 overall.
  • Under is 8-2 in last 10 vs teams below .500.

CAVALIERS TRENDS

  • 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs teams below .400.
  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
  • 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 0 days rest.
  • Under is 7-2 in Cavaliers last 9 games as a home underdog.
  • Under is 9-4 in Cavaliers last 13 home games.
  • Over is 5-2 in Cavaliers last 7 vs teams below .500.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
  • Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland.

SEASON SERIES

SEASON SERIES ->
29.12.19 MIN CLE 88 : 94

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Collin Sexton has 21+ points in the Cavaliers’ last 3 home games.
  • Tristan Thompson has 14+ rebounds in the Cavaliers’ last 3 games against Western Conference teams.

() = BOOKIE LINE

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
MIN 13 21 5-11 8-10
CLE 10 25 6-12 4-13

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT. AV
MIN 111.6 114.6 -3.0 226.2
CLE 104.4 113.4 -9.0 217.8

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
CLE UNDER MIN
+4.0 215.5 118-103

The Timberwolves picked up a 99-84 win over Golden State on Thursday, leaving them 3-2 since an 11-game slide, with all three wins coming without stars KAT and Wiggins.

One of the Timberwolves’ recent losses was a 14-point loss against the Cavaliers at home Dec. 28th, part of a recent 4-1 surge for the Cavaliers. They’ve since lost 3-straight after losing 121-106 to OKC on Saturday at home.

The Cavaliers rank 2nd worst in the league in defensively and the Wolves games generally bring the points. Overs tempting, however the previous match-up ended 94-88.

OUR PICK  – CLEVELAND +4.0

MEMPHIS @ PHOENIX

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

GRIZZLIES TRENDS

  • 4-1-1 ATS in last 6 games as a road underdog.
  • 7-16 ATS in last 23 games playing on 0 days rest.
  • Over is 6-0 in last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
  • Over is 5-1 in last 6 overall.
  • Over is 7-1 in last 8 games as an underdog.

SUNS TRENDS

  • 4-0 ATS in last 4 games overall.
  • 3-1-1 ATS in last 5 home games.
  • 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 games vs teams below .400.
  • 13-6-1 ATS in last 20 games vs teams below .500.
  • Over is 5-1 in last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % below .400.
  • Over is 6-2 in last 8 overall.
  • Over is 8-2 in last 10 games as a home favorite.
  • Over is 18-6 in last 24 home games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Phoenix.

SEASON SERIES

SEASON SERIES ->
12.12.19 PHO MEM 108 : 115
03.11.19 MEM PHO 105 : 114

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Devin Booker has 32+ points in the Suns’ last 5 games. (27.5)
  • Deandre Ayton has 12+ rebounds in his last 4 games. (11.5)
  • Jaren Jackson Jr. has 20+ points in 4 of the Grizzlies’ last 5 road games. (17.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
MEM 14 22 7-12 7-10
PHO 14 21 7-12 7-9

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT. AV
MEM 112.2 116.5 -4.3 228.7
PHO 114.2 115 -0.8 229.2

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
PHO OVER MEM
-6.0 234.5 121-114

Devin Booker matched the Phoenix franchise record set by Charlie Scott (twice) and Charles Barkley of 5-straight games 30+ points when he scored 38  in a 120-112 win over the Knicks on Friday.

Phoenix have 4 games left on its homestand – all against sub-.500 teams – and the Suns are just 7-12 at home, sitting just outside the top 8 in the West with the Grizzlies.

Memphis come to town after one of its best wins of the season Saturday, scoring 40 points in the first quarter en route to a 140-114 romp at the Clippers last night in the early game.

Both rank in the top 10 in tempo and in the bottom half of the league in defensively efficiency so Overs is nice.

Grizzlies are 7-16 ATS in last 23 games playing on 0 days rest.

OUR PICK  – PHOENIX -6.0

DETROIT @ LA LAKERS

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

PISTONS TRENDS

  • 15-33-3 ATS in last 51 games vs teams above .500.
  • 5-16-1 ATS in last 22 road games.
  • 3-14 ATS in last 17 games vs teams above .600.
  • 1-8 ATS in last 9 games overall.
  • 0-4 ATS in last 4 games playing on 0 days rest.
  • Under is 5-0 in last 5 vs teams above .500.
  • Under is 8-3 in last 11 road games.
  • Over is 19-8 in last 27 games vs teams above .600.

LAKERS TRENDS

  • 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % below .400.
  • 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs teams below .500.
  • 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
  • Under is 13-4 in Lakers last 17 vs teams below .500.
  • Under is 38-17-1 in Lakers last 56 home games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Pistons are 1-8 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Los Angeles.
  • Pistons are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
  • Under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings.
  • Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Anthony Davis has 30+ points in each of his last 4 home games against the Pistons. (28.5)
  • LeBron James has 9+ rebounds in the Lakers’ last 5 games against Eastern Conference teams. (7.5)

() = BOOKIE LINE

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
DET 13 23 8-10 5-13
LAL 28 7 13-4 15-3

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT. AV
DET 108.4 111.2 -2.8 219.6
LAL 112.9 105.5 +7.4 218.4

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
LAL UNDER LAL
-14.5 221.0 106-99

The Lakers will try to stay perfect on their current home-stand and take their win streak to 5-straight tonight. Behind 46 points and 13 rebounds from Anthony Davis, the Lakers pushed to 3-0 on the 5-game home-stand with a 123-113 win over New Orleans on Friday.

The Pistons ended a 3-game losing streak with a 111-104 win at Golden State on Saturday.

Detroit has lost each of its last 3 and will be road weary tonight in what will be their fifth straight game on the road.

Detroit are 1-8 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Los Angeles.

OUR PICK  – UNDER 221.0

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