Expert NBA Basketball Picks

11 GAMES – NBA TIPS – 11/12/19

December 11, 2019

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*Original NBA picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.

DP’S PLAYER PROP

Expert NBA Player Props Analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop, exclusive to subscribers.

Season Record 9-4

ATLANTA @ CHICAGO

The Finish sniper is starting to heat up, in the month of December he is
averaging 18 PPG on 48% shooting, and most importantly; he is finding his spots on the 3 ball, averaging 3.6 per game, compared to 1.6 per game in November.

The Bulls get a great look at the young Hawks who have been struggling on back-to-backs all season long. I expect Lauri to pour in 20 for the Bulls tonight.

DP’S BEST BET – LAURI MARKKANEN OVER 15.5 POINTS – WIN

TREND BET

NEW YORK @ GOLDEN STATE

NEW YORK

Under is 10-1 in last 11 games playing on 0 days rest.
Under is 6-2 in last 8 games v teams below .400.
Under is 18-8-1 in last 27 overall.
Under is 37-17-1 in last 55 games as an underdog.

GOLDEN STATE

Under is 5-0 in last 5 overall.
Under is 7-0 in last 7 vs teams below .400.
Under is 4-0 in last 4 home games.

MATCHUP

Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Golden State.

TREND BET – UNDER 210.5

HOUSTON @ CLEVELAND

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

ROCKETS TRENDS

5-1 ATS in last 6 vs teams below .400.
3-10 ATS in last 13 road vs. a team with a losing home record.
2-7 ATS in last 9 games as a road favorite.
Over is 4-0 in last 4 vs teams below .500.
Under is 19-7 in last 26 road games.

CAVALIERS TRENDS

1-4 ATS in last 5 home games.
5-1 ATS in last 6 home vs teams with winning road records.
1-7 ATS in last 8 vs teams above .500.
0-4 ATS in last 4 games overall.
Under is 5-1 in last 6 games as a home underdog.
Under is 6-2 in last 8 home games.
Under is 5-2 in last 7 vs teams above .600.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Rockets are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland.

PLAYER TRENDS

Russell Westbrook has 10+ assists in his last 8 games against the Cavaliers.
Clint Capela has 20+ rebounds in the Rockets’ last 3 games as road favourites.
James Harden has scored the 1st basket in 4 of the Rockets’ last 8 road games against East teams.
James Harden has 40+ points in the Rockets’ last 2 games against the Cavaliers.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM	W	L	HOME	ROAD
HOU	15	8	9-3	6-5
CLE	5	18	3-9	2-9

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM	PPG	OPPG	DIFF	TOT. AV
CLE	102.3	113	-10.7	215.3
HOU	120.4	115.1	+5.3	235.5

PICKS ATS

Spread	Points	Result
HOU	Under	HOU
-11.5	228.5	116-110

THE RUB

The 5-18 Cleveland Cavaliers host the 15-8 Rockets.

If the Cavaliers are to make a game of this they will have to overturn their 7-game losing streak, which includes 3 losses by a margin of 22+ points.

Houston hope to bounce back from their buzzer-beating 119-118 home loss to Sacramento. A loss which was all the more enjoyable after a Westbrook “game winner” with 1.0 seconds on the clock that prompted the former MVP to state “game over”

Harden averaged 41.5 ppg and 12.5 apg against the Cavs last season.

Rockets to flex, small stakes only.

OUR PICK – HOUSTON -11.0

BOSTON @ INDIANA

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

CELTICS TRENDS

4-0 ATS in last 4 games overall.
4-0 ATS in last 4 vs teams above .600.
10-1 ATS in last 11 vs teams above .500.
4-1 ATS in last 5 road games.
7-2-1 ATS in last 10 games following an ATS win.
Under is 6-1 in last 7 games following an ATS win.
Under is 16-5 in last 21 games as an underdog.
Under is 16-5 in last 21 vs teams above .600.
Under is 9-3 in last 12 overall.
Under is 5-2 in last 7 road games.

PACERS TRENDS

21-5 ATS in last 26 games following a 10+ point loss at home.
4-12 ATS in last 16 vs teams above .600.
2-8-1 ATS in last 11 vs teams above .500.
Under is 4-0 in last 4 overall.
Under is 8-2 in last 10 games following a loss of 10+ points.
Under is 22-7 in last 29 vs teams above .600.
Under is 36-17-1 in last 54 games as a home favorite.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Indiana.
Celtics are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Indiana.
Celtics are 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

PLAYER TRENDS

Jayson Tatum has 26+ points in 4 of the Celtics’ last 5 road games.
Jaylen Brown has 20+ points in 7 of the Celtics’ last 8 games.
T.J. Warren has 19+ points in each of his last 3 games against the Celtics.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM	W	L	HOME	ROAD
BOS	17	5	10-0	7-5
IND	15	9	9-3	6-6

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM	PPG	OPPG	DIFF	TOT. AV
BOS	110.6	102.8	+7.8	213.4
IND	108.8	104.7	+4.1	213.5

PICKS ATS

Spread	Points	Result
BOS	Under	IND
+1.5	210.5	122-117

THE RUB

Hayward returned to score 14 points on 7-of-10 shooting in the Celtics’ 110-88 win over Cleveland on Monday night as Boston improved to 10-0 at home.

The Pacers have split their last 6 after opening a two-game homestand with a 110-99 loss to the Clippers on Monday. Indiana were held below 100 points for the first time in nearly a month while falling to 9-3 at home.

Boston, just with trends heading to Unders.

OUR PICK – BOSTON WIN & Under 210.5

LA LAKERS @ ORLANDO

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

LAKERS TRENDS

4-0 ATS in last 4 games overall.
5-0 ATS in last 5 vs teams below .500.
4-1 ATS in last 5 road games.
5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite.
Over is 9-2-1 in last 12 games after scoring 125+ points in their last game.
Under is 8-2 in last 10 vs teams below .500.
Under is 5-2 in last 7 games as a favorite.

MAGIC TRENDS

4-0 ATS in last 4 games overall.
1-3-1 ATS in last 5 games as a home underdog.
1-4 ATS in last 5 home games.
Under is 8-1 in last 9 vs teams above .500.
Under is 23-9 in last 32 home vs teams with winning road records.
Over is 5-2 in last 7 home games.
Over is 7-3 in last 10 after scoring 100+ points in their last game.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Lakers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
Lakers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Orlando.
Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Orlando.
Under is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings.

PLAYER TRENDS

Aaron Gordon has 12 points or less in his last 4 home games against the Lakers.
LeBron James has 25 points or less in 9 of his last 10 games against the Magic.
Evan Fournier has 21+ points in 4 of the Magic’s last 5 games in Orlando.
Terrence Ross has 21+ points in the Magic’s last 3 games.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM	W	L	HOME	ROAD
LAL	21	3	10-2	11-1
ORL	11	12	8-4	3-8

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM	PPG	OPPG	DIFF	TOT. AV
LAL	114.5	104.6	+9.9	219.1
ORL	103.0	103.0	+0.0	206.0

PICKS ATS

Spread	Points	Result
LAL	Under	LAL
-6.5	213.5	96-87

THE RUB

The Lakers look for their 15th win in their past 16 games when they open a 5-game road trip tonight.

It was the Magic who swept last season’s series between these clubs, including a 130-117 victory in Orlando which moved the Lakers’ losing streak in Orlando to 6 games.

Orlando has still been able to win 4 of its last 5, although it is important to note the Lakers have won 11 straight on the road.

Lakers.

OUR PICK – LA Lakers -6.5

LA CLIPPERS @ TORONTO

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

CLIPPERS TRENDS

4-1 ATS in last 5 games overall.
5-2 ATS in last 7 games as a favorite.
20-9 ATS in last 29 games as a road favorite.
3-7 ATS in last 10 road games.
Under is 4-0 in last 4 after scoring 100+ points in their last game.
Under is 6-1 in last 7 vs teams above .600.

RAPTORS TRENDS

5-0-2 ATS in last 7 games as a home underdog.
21-5 ATS in last 26 games playing on 1 days rest.
18-7-1 ATS in last 26 home games.
2-5 ATS in last 7 vs teams above .600.
0-4 ATS in last 4 games overall.
Over is 6-0 in last 6 Wednesday games.
Over is 7-2 in last 9 home games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Clippers are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Toronto.
Clippers are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

SEASON SERIES

SEASON SERIES ->

12.11.19
LAC
TOR
98 : 88

PLAYER TRENDS

Serge Ibaka has 8+ rebounds in his last 4 home games against the Clippers.
Montrezl Harrell has 20+ points in 4 of the Clippers’ last 5 games.
Kawhi Leonard has 11 points or less in his 4 road games against the Raptors.
Paul George has scored the 1st basket in 3 of the Clippers’ last 6 games.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM	W	L	HOME	ROAD
LAC	18	7	13-1	5-6
TOR	16	7	9-2	7-5

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM	PPG	OPPG	DIFF	TOT. AV
LAC	115.1	108.3	+6.8	223.4
TOR	111.7	105.3	+6.4	217.0

PICKS ATS

Spread	Points	Result
LAC	Under	LAC
-1.5	221.5	112-92

THE RUB

The Raptors welcome back their Finals hero tonight, and there will be zero boos.

Ironically, the Raptors have been one of Kawhi’s least favourable matchups, averaging fewer points when playing the Clippers, including a 12-point outing when the Clippers beat the Raptors 98-88 a month back.

The bettors are swaying towards the Raptors, but can’t go past the Clippers here if George and Leonard suit up.

Unders best.

OUR PICK – UNDER 221.5

CHARLOTTE @ BROOKLYN

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

HORNETS TRENDS

4-1 ATS in last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
3-7 ATS in last 10 games as an underdog.
1-4 ATS in last 5 games overall.
1-5 ATS in last 6 road games.
0-4 ATS in last 4 vs teams above .500.
Over is 4-0 in last 4 road games.
Over is 12-3 in last 15 vs teams above .500.
Over is 7-3 in last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.

NETS TRENDS

5-0 ATS in last 5 games overall.
5-0 ATS in last 5 home games.
7-1 ATS in last 8 vs teams below .500.
6-1 ATS in last 7 vs teams below .400.
4-1 ATS in last 5 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-1 in last 6 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-1 in last 5 vs teams below .400.
Under is 6-2 in last 8 vs teams below .500.
Under is 7-3-1 in last 11 overall.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Hornets are 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
Hornets are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Brooklyn.

SEASON SERIES

SEASON SERIES ->

07.12.19	CHA	BKN	104 : 111
21.11.19	BKN	CHA	101 : 91

PLAYER TRENDS

Terry Rozier has 19+ points in the Hornets’ last 4 road games.
Spencer Dinwiddie has 24+ points in 4 of the Nets’ last 5 games.
Jarrett Allen has the 1st basket in 4 of the Nets’ last 6 games.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM	W	L	HOME	ROAD
CHA	10	16	6-8	4-8
BKN	13	10	7-4	6-6

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM	PPG	OPPG	DIFF	TOT. AV
CHA	105.8	112.9	-7.1	218.7
BKN	112.6	112.9	-0.3	225.5

PICKS ATS

Spread	Points	Result
BKN	Under	CHA
-9.5	217.0	113-108

THE RUB

On the 2nd leg of a back-to-back, the Hornets will visit the Nets at Barclays Center.

This is their 3rd meeting this season, with the Nets holding a 2-0 lead after beating Charlotte both at home and on the road.

If the Hornets are to hand Brooklyn their 3rd loss in 11 games, they will need to overcome a poor 1-5 record from their last 6 on the road.

Trends and all betting gods point to a Brooklyn win ATS.

OUR PICK – BROOKLYN -9.5

ATLANTA @ CHICAGO

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

HAWKS TRENDS

2-7 ATS in last 9 vs teams below .500.
1-4 ATS in last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
Over is 13-3 in last 16 overall.
Over is 13-3 in last 16 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 in last 5 vs teams below .400.
Over is 8-2 in last 10 road games.

BULLS TRENDS

5-1 ATS in last 6 games overall.
12-29 ATS in last 41 home games.
Under is 5-0 in last 5 vs teams below .400.
Under is 4-0 in last 4 home games.
Under is 6-2 in last 8 overall.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Hawks are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Under is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings in Chicago.
Hawks are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.

SEASON SERIES

SEASON SERIES ->

07.11.19
ATL
CHI
93 : 113

PLAYER TRENDS

Lauri Markkanen has 17+ points in his last 6 games against the Hawks.
Trae Young has 30+ points in the Hawks’ last 3 games on the 2nd leg of a back-to-back.
Jabari Parker has 28+ points in his last 3 Wednesday road games.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM	W	L	HOME	ROAD
ATL	6	18	3-8	3-10
CHI	8	17	4-9	4-8

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM	PPG	OPPG	DIFF	TOT. AV
ATL	109.2	118.0	-8.8	227.2
CHI	105.4	108.6	-3.2	214.0

PICKS ATS

Spread	Points	Result
CHI	Under	CHI
-5.0	222.0	136-102

THE RUB

The Hawks lost yesterday to the Heat 135-121 after OT, marking the equal-5th-largest OT loss in NBA history.

The Bulls latest outing came on Monday and was a 93-92 loss to Toronto, its 4th loss in 5 home games. However, given the Hawks are 1-8 from their last 9 on the road, the home side could have a chance for a much-needed win on Wednesday.

Rubbish game here but well take the Bulls ML for a small stake.

OUR PICK – CHICAGO WIN

UTAH @ MINNESOTA

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

JAZZ TRENDS

6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a 10+ point loss at home.
1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
7-3 ATS in their last 10 road vs teams with home winning %’s below .400.
Under is 6-1 in Jazz last 7 road vs teams with losing home records.
Over is 7-3 in Jazz last 10 overall.
Under is 9-4 in Jazz last 13 road games.
Under is 16-7 in Jazz last 23 when their opponent scores 100+ points in their last game.

TIMBERWOLVES TRENDS

1-5-1 ATS in last 7 vs teams above .500.
0-5 ATS in last 5 games overall.
0-4 ATS in last 4 games as an underdog.
0-5 ATS in last 5 home games.
Over is 4-0 in last 4 overall.
Under is 4-0 in last 4 home games.
Over is 25-11-1 in last 37 vs teams above .500.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota.
Jazz are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

SEASON SERIES

SEASON SERIES ->

21.11.19	MIN	UTA	95 : 103
19.11.19	UTA	MIN	102 : 112

PLAYER TRENDS

Karl-Anthony Towns has 12+ rebounds in the Timberwolves’ last 4 games at Target Center.
Donovan Mitchell has scored 20 points or less in 4 of the Jazz’s last 5 road games.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM	W	L	HOME	ROAD
UTA	13	11	9-3	4-8
MIN	10	13	3-7	7-6

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM	PPG	OPPG	DIFF	TOT. AV
UTA	105.9	106.0	-0.1	211.9
MIN	114.6	117.4	-2.8	232.0

PICKS ATS

Spread	Points	Result
UTA	Under	UTA
+1.0	224.5	127-116

THE RUB

Minnesota enter tonight in the midst of their longest winless streak of 2019-20, having fallen to a 5th-straight fall after Monday’s 125-109 loss at Phoenix.

Utah fell to their 4th loss in 5, losing 104-90 at home to OKC in the continued absence of Mike Conley, who will again be sidelined.

Unders best. Small stake.

OUR PICK – UNDER 224.5

MEMPHIS @ PHOENIX

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

GRIZZLIES TRENDS

2-5 ATS in last 7 vs teams below .500.
2-7 ATS in last 9 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-1 in last 5 when their opponent scores 100+ points in their last game.

SUNS TRENDS

5-1 ATS in last 6 vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
4-1 ATS in last 5 games overall.
9-3 ATS in last 12 vs teams below .500.
1-4 ATS in last 5 home games.
Over is 4-0 in last 4 home games.
Over is 9-1 in last 10 when their opponent scores 100+ points in their last game.
Over is 8-2 in last 10 games as a favorite.
Over is 13-4 in last 17 overall.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Under is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings in Phoenix.

SEASON SERIES

SEASON SERIES ->

03.11.19
MEM
PHO
105 : 114

PLAYER TRENDS

Ja Morant has 20+ points in the Grizzlies’ last 5 games against Pacific teams.
Ricky Rubio has 13+ assists in 4 of the Suns’ last 5 games.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM	W	L	HOME	ROAD
MEM	7	16	3-10	4-6
PHO	11	12	6-7	5-5

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM	PPG	OPPG	DIFF	TOT. AV
MEM	108.7	116.3	-7.6	225.0
PHO	115.7	114.0	+1.7	229.7

PICKS ATS

Spread	Points	Result
PHO	Under	MEM
-7.5	233.5	115-108

THE RUB

Taking the Suns ATS in what should be a garbage outing.

Bettors beware.

Go Unders.

OUR PICK – UNDER 233.5

NEW ORLEANS @ MILWAUKEE

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

PELICANS TRENDS

0-6 ATS in last 6 games overall.
0-4 ATS in last 4 games as a road underdog.
0-4 ATS in last 4 road games.
1-4 ATS in last 5 vs teams above .500.
Under is 5-0 in last 5 after scoring 100+ points in their last game.
Under is 6-0 in last 6 vs teams above .600.
Over is 10-1 in last 11 vs teams above .500.
Under is 6-1 in last 7 overall.

BUCKS TRENDS

4-1 ATS in last 5 games overall.
10-4 ATS in last 14 home vs teams with road winning %’s below .400.
4-1 ATS in last 5 games as a favorite.
Over is 5-0 in last 5 vs teams below .500.
Under is 4-1 in last 5 home games.
Under is 5-2 in last 7 overall.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Over is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings.
Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.
Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Milwaukee.

PLAYER TRENDS

Brandon Ingram has 25+ points in his last 4 games against East teams.
Jrue Holiday has scored the 1st basket in the Pelicans’ last 2 road games against East teams.
Khris Middleton has scored 15 points or less in 7 of his last 8 games against Southwest teams.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has 4 assists or less in 4 of the Bucks’ last 5 home games.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM	W	L	HOME	ROAD
NOR	6	18	4-9	2-9
MIL	21	3	11-1	10-2

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM	PPG	OPPG	DIFF	TOT. AV
NOR	112.8	119.5	-6.7	232.3
MIL	120.5	107.2	+13.3	227.7

PICKS ATS

Spread	Points	Result
MIL	Over	MIL
-13.0	234.0	127-112

THE RUB

The league’s longest winning streak meets its 2nd-longest losing streak tonight.

The Bucks’ win streak stands at 15 games after they beat the Magic 110-101 at home behind a 32-point, 15-rebound, 8-assist outing from Giannis.

The Pelicans lost 105-103 to the Pistons thanks to a D-Rose game-winner, leaving them winless in 9 games and marking their 14th loss in 15 against East opponents. Brandon Ingram finished that game with a game-high 31 points, however, it remains to be seen how he will cope against a Bucks defence which has conceded 103 or less in 5-straight games.

Bucks to hit that extra gear and hit the 13+ point win.

OUR PICK – MILWAUKEE -13.0

OKLAHOMA CITY @ SACRAMENTO

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

THUNDER TRENDS

5-0 ATS in last 5 vs teams below .500.
5-1 ATS in last 6 games overall.
5-2 ATS in last 7 games following a straight up win.
5-2 ATS in last 7 road games.
Under is 5-1 in last 6 overall.
Under is 4-1 in last 5 road games.

KINGS TRENDS

15-3 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.
12-3 ATS in their last 15 after scoring 100+ points in their last game.
Over is 4-1 in last 5 overall.
Over is 11-4 in last 15 Wednesday games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

Thunder are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Thunder are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Sacramento.
Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Sacramento.

PLAYER TRENDS

Steven Adams has scored the 1st basket in 4 of the Thunder’s last 6 games.
Buddy Hield has 25+ points in the Kings’ last 3 games against the Thunder.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has 20+ points in the Thunder’s last 3 games.
Steven Adams has 11+ rebounds in the Thunder’s last 3 road games against the Kings.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM	W	L	HOME	ROAD
OKC	11	12	7-5	4-7
SAC	10	13	5-4	5-9

SEASON POINTS +/-

TEAM	PPG	OPPG	DIFF	TOT. AV
OKC	108.4	107.7	+0.7	216.1
SAC	105.7	108.9	-3.2	214.6

PICKS ATS

Spread	Points	Result
SAC
-2.0	TBC

THE RUB

Both team are riding short streaks, however the Thunder have won 3-straight and with Chris Paul, Schroder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have an excellent offense.

OKC have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 and their last 5 against West teams, however in this matchup are just 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Sacramento.

Kings here.

OUR PICK – SACRAMENTO WIN