FREE NBA PLAYOFF PICKS
*Original NBA Playoff picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.
DP’S PLAYER PROP
SEASON RECORD: 75-49
Expert NBA Player Props analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop.
ALL BUSINESS BRON
LBJ is now 57% on the floor, 43% from 3 for an average of 30.2 points.
So to keep it simple for what I think is the final game to be played in the bubble, I’m making a move on the Lakers to cover the spread and for LeBron James to cover 8.5 assists.
LeBron’s 40 in Game 5 was remarkable – but he desperately needs his team mates to make their shots.
The Lakers bench accumulated 5-22 (that’s 22% on the floor) in Game 5 and LeBron still had his 8 dimes.
PICK – LEBRON JAMES OVER 8.5 ASSISTS – WIN
SAME GAME MULTI
The depth of the Heat got the better of the Laker’s Big-2 in Game 5. LeBron tried his best to drag his crew over the line, but in true fashion, the King’s role-players just could not get it done. Looking at you Danny Green. Like the Heat to keep it close or perhaps force a Game 7.
- MIAMI +9.5 (ALT LINE)
The totals have continued to reap rewards for us in the Bubble. We’ll go again tonight with the alternate line.
- OVER 206.5 TOTAL POINTS (ALT LINE)
LeBron will need to channel something tonight, and I’d expect he’ll channel Kobe’s “everybody just get the f*#$ out of the way” mode. Would’nt be surprised if he gets another 40 tonight. LeBron has 35+ points in 4 of his last 5 playoff series closeout games
- LEBRON JAMES 25+ POINTS
Jimmy has been a dime machine. Perhaps with a little spring out of his legs tonight after another 48-minutes played in Game 5, we’ll pick him to defer on a few drives. Another 8+ assist night for Jimmy.
- JIMMY BUTLER 8+ ASSISTS
ODDS – $3.89
MIAMI @ LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS LEAD 3-2
PLAYER BETTING TRENDS
- Bam Adebayo has scored the first basket in 3 of his last 4 games.
- Jimmy Butler has 10+ rebounds in the Heat’s last 3 games.(8.5)
- Tyler Herro has 17+ points in 6 of the Heat’s last 8 games with Dragic out. (16.5)
- Jae Crowder has 7+ rebounds in 3 of the Heat’s last 4 games. (5.5)
- Rajon Rondo has 7 points or less in 7 of his last 8 games against the Heat. (7.5)
- LeBron James has 35+ points in 4 of his last 5 playoff series closeout games. (31.5)
- Kendrick Nunn has 13+ points in 11 of his last 13 games with Dragic out. (11.5)
- Jimmy Butler has 11+ assists in 3 of the Heat’s last 4 games. (8.5)
- Duncan Robinson has 17+ points in 11 of the Heat’s last 15 games against Western Conference opponents. (13.5)
- Anthony Davis has 10+ rebounds in 23 of his last 32 playoff games. (9.5)
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Lakers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
- Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| 10.10.20 | LAL | MIA | 108 : 111 |
| 07.10.20 | MIA | LAL | 96 : 102 |
| 05.10.20 | MIA | LAL | 115 : 104 |
| 03.10.20 | LAL | MIA | 124 : 114 |
| 01.10.20 | LAL | MIA | 116 : 98 |
| 14.12.19 | MIA | LAL | 110 : 113 |
| 09.11.19 | LAL | MIA | 95 : 80 |
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| LAL | 52 | 19 | 25-10 | 27-9 |
| MIA | 44 | 29 | 29-7 | 15-22 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | AV. TOT |
| LAL | 113.4 | 107.6 | +5.8 | 221.0 |
| MIA | 112.0 | 109.1 | +2.9 | 221.1 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| MIA | OVER | LAL |
| +5.5 | 214.5 | 106-93 |
The Lakers were couldn’t make plays down the stretch of a 111-108 loss in Game 5, connecting on 14-for-38 from the three-point line and shot 46%.
LeBron led all scorers with 40 points, 13 rebounds and 7 assists, while Davis added 28 points on 9-for-15 shooting and 12 rebounds.
Fot he Heat, Jimmy Butler had a team high 35 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists, and 5 steals. Duncan Robinson contributed 26 points on 7-for-13 from the three-point line.
Miami were not fazed by a 6-point halftime deficit and wore down the Lakers with their constant movement on offense. The Heat made 14 of their 33 three-point attempts and 21 of their 22 free throws.
“We were both just trying to … will our team to a victory,” LeBron said.
“I left it all out on the floor along with my guys,” Butler said. “And that’s how we’re gonna have to play from here on out.”
If not for a Danny Green miss on an uncontested 3-pointer with 7.1 seconds left on the clock, the Heat might have already packed their bags. That missed shot would have put LA up by 2 barely touched the front of the rim, allowing Herro to make a pair of free throws at the other end to seal the deal.
As expected, it was the Lakers Big-2 vs the Heat’s depth. LA will need something very special from LeBron in Game 6 to end this series.
PICK – OVER 214.5 TOTAL POINTS
