NBA FINALS: GAME 4 – LA LAKERS @ MIAMI

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DP’S PLAYER PROP

SEASON RECORD: 73-49

Expert NBA Player Props analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop.

Dime In With Jimmy

I think Jimmy is primed for another high usage court marshalling type of game again.

Butler has surpassed 7 or more dimes in 4 of his past 5 games. The only game he didn’t was in Game 1 where he returned a below par 33 minutes in a blowout loss.

Since G1, Butler has averaged 45 minutes per game on 13 dimes and that is without Bam finishing in-and-around the rim.

Without the ball-handling services of Dragic, I expect Jimmy to imprint his fingers on the splading in the half-court on every single occasion. If the Lakers decide to collapse when Jimmy decides to drive to the basket, I expect a volume of dimes to land via kick outs to Duncan, Tyler and Jae.

PICK – JIMMY BUTLER OVER 7.5 ASSISTS – WIN

SAME GAME MULTI

• JIMMY BUTLER OVER 7.5 ASSISTS

Jimmy’s had 13 assists in each of Game’s 1 and 2, and after dropping 40 points in Game 3 we’d expect a little extra attention on him in the paint, where he scored the large majority of his points (zero three-pointers attempted). Like him to defer a few times and reach the 8+ mark easily.

• LEBRON JAMES 25+ POINTS

After his low-par performance, the Herro lip curl, and Jimmy Butler’s “You’re in trouble” trash-talk in Game 3, I can’see LeBron being anything other than a legacy chaser here. He won’t want to let this one slip.

• OVER 207.5 TOTAL POINTS (ALT LINE

Games 1, 2 & 3 have produced totals of 214, 238 & 219. Like the alternative line of 207.5 to get eclipsed here.

ODDS – $3.75

LA LAKERS @  MIAMI

LA LAKERS LEAD 2-1

PLAYER BETTING TRENDS

• Jimmy Butler has 8+ assists in 4 of the Heat’s last 5 games. (7.5)
• Rajon Rondo has 7+ assists in 8 of his last 10 playoff games against the Heat. (6.5)
• Anthony Davis has 32+ points in 3 of the Lakers’ last 4 games against the Heat. (29.5)
• Kyle Kuzma has 11+ points in 6 of his 8 previous games against the Heat. (9.5)
• Duncan Robinson has 13+ points in 7 of the Heat’s last 10 games at this venue. (11.5)
• Anthony Davis has a double-double in 22 of his last 30 playoff games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

• Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.

SEASON SERIES

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/- 

PICKS ATS

The Heat did everything that they didn’t do over Games 1 and 2. They made shots, were aggressive on the loose balls and rendered Anthony Davis ineffective.

It also helped that Jimmy Butler had the playoff game of his life, and one of the best post-seasons performances in history.

The Heat will roll into Game 4 with renewed confidence after their impressive 115-104 Game 4 that swung the momentum their way……For now.

Jimmy Buckets singlehandedly led Miami, scoring 40 points to go with 13 assists and 11 rebounds in his first career playoff triple-double. He played 45 minutes for the second-straight game, as Dragic (foot) and  Adebayo (neck) remained sidelined.

“How else do you say it other than Jimmy effing Butler,” coach Erik Spoelstra said. “This was a very urgent game, and he was doing it on both ends of the court. Just put his imprint on every important part of the game.”

Though the possible return Adebayo back would be great for the Heat, the Lakers can take know they remain in control.

“I don’t feel like we’re concerned,” LeBron James said after his the loss. “We’re not concerned. We know we can play a lot better. We have another opportunity to take a commanding lead on Tuesday. You relish that opportunity.”

A space where Lakers can improve is turnovers after committing 10 in the 1st quarter alone in Game 3, 1 more than their Game 2 total. They finished the game with 20, LeBron committing 8 and Anthony Davis 5 turnovers.

Davis was further hampered down by foul trouble, called for 3 in the first half alone, and finished with 15 points. James had a rather unimpressive 25 points, 10 rebounds and 8 assists.

“I just have to be better,” Davis said. “Both ends of the floor. Foul trouble, bringing the energy to the team — the team relies on me bringing the energy to start the game. When you pick up two fouls, guys come in earlier, things like that. So I just have to be better.”

The line for Lakers has dropped to -7.5 after going out to -9.5 in Game 3. Going to be a tough one ATS, so looking at Overs again.

PICK  – OVER 217.5 TOTAL POINTS