BOSTON @ MIAMI – FREE NBA PICKS – 27/9/20

FREE NBA PLAYOFF PICKS

*Original NBA Playoff picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.

DP’S PLAYER PROP

SEASON RECORD: 72-48

Expert NBA Player Props analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop.

BOSTON @ MIAMI

Bam was the first to put his hand up in the post-game and own Miami’s Game 5 13-point loss.

Was it necessary though? No, absolutely not.

But does it help him from a mindset point view? Yes, most certainly it does.

That is why we are running it back on Bam, who despite having somewhat of a less impactful game at both ends – still managed to return 13-8-8 totalling 29 on the PRA in 38 minutes (whilst navigating through foul trouble).

Most troubling for Bam was his offensive output, returning a series low 5-11 on the floor for 13 points. Boston have not made any in-game adjustments on Bam, let it be known – he will continue to get looks on that mid-range pick ‘n pop as well as standard rim-rocking dunks and lobs.

Adebayo is far too versatile for Theis who also needs to protect the rim with the creative personnel Spoelstra has at his avail (Butler, Dragic & Herro) who can all beat their opponent on the perimeter and take it to the cup.

Expect Miami to be full wound up tomorrow and locked in for 48 minutes.

My other suggested play tomorrow is Jimmy Butler Over 20.5 points.

If Jimmy know what’s good for him and this team – we will see increase usage from the get-go because we can’t sit through another slim 11 field goal attempts. With Spoelstra cutting back his second unit to just Herro and Igoudala for situational – Jimmy is playing 42 minutes tomorrow (just like we saw LeBron clock a series high today of 40 in a close out).

PICK – BAM ADEBAYO OVER 32.5 PRA – WIN

NEXT BEST – JIMMY BUTLER OVER 20.5 POINTS – WIN

PARLAYS

SAME GAME MULTI

• MIAMI @ BOSTON – OVER 206.5 TOTAL POINTS
• MIAMI @ BOSTON – MIA +6.5 (ALT LINE)

ODDS – $2.20 – WIN

BOSTON @ MIAMI

MIAMI LEAD SERIES 3-2

PLAYER BETTING TRENDS

• Jaylen Brown has 21+ points in 7 of the Celtics’ last 8 games. (20.5)
• Kemba Walker has made 3+ three-pointers in the Celtics’ last 4 games. (2.5)
• Goran Dragic has 22+ points in 4 of the Heat’s last 5 games against the Celtics. (19.5)
• Bam Adebayo has 18+ points in 6 of the Heat’s last 7 games as underdogs. (16.5)
• Jayson Tatum has 10+ rebounds in 8 of the Celtics’ last 10 games as favorites. (9.5)
• Marcus Smart has 14+ points in 5 of the Celtics’ last 7 games. (13.5)
• Jae Crowder has made 3+ three-pointers in 8 of the Heat’s last 11 games as underdogs. (2.5)

MATCHUP TRENDS

• Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.

SEASON SERIES

WIN/LOSS

SEASON POINTS +/- 

PICKS ATS

The Heat are still just one W away from their first Finals ticket in six years after giving up a 7-point halftime lead in a 121-108 loss in Game 5.

With Tatum and Jimmy Butler levelling-out each other’s performances, the first 5 games have swung in the favor of the team with the more depth.

Miami’s supporting cast has turned up, with Dragic and Crowder with combining for 51 points in an OT win in Game 1. Then from Duncan Robinson’s six 3-pointers and 18 points in Game 2. Of course, most memorably, from Herro’s historic 37-point outing in Game 4.

The Celtics have countered the Heat’s supporting cast with a combined 67 points from Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart in their first win in Game 3, and with a Theis double-double that kept Boston alive in the series.

The up-and-down nature of the series continues with Herro following up his 37-point record-breaking night with just 14 in Game 5. On the other side, Theis had totaled just 18 points and 21 rebounds in Boston’s 3 losses before going for 15 and 13 on Friday.

Something else that reversed in Game 5 was the turnovers for each team. After the Celtics had averaged 4.7 more turnovers per game in the first four games, they had 2 fewer (13-11) than the Heat in Game 5.

Overs has lined our pockets, but not convinced enough for the outlay tonight in the expectation that the pace may drop in what is another possible close out.

PICK  –  MIAMI +3.5

CONTINUE RIDING THE TRAIN – OVER 213.5 TOTAL POINTS