FREE NBA PLAYOFF PICKS
*Original NBA Playoff picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.
DP’S PLAYER PROP
SEASON RECORD: 72-46
Expert NBA Player Props analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop.
LA LAKERS @ DENVER
Am not one to harp on a prop loss but boy oh my were we stiff on the Daniel Theis Unders PRA! Moving on….
ALL BUSINESS ‘BRON
Am going to keep this preview relatively short and sharp because Game 4 is all-business.
When all-business is the state of play, LeBron James arrives.
Like I’ve mentioned previously, this series has 4 ready-made scorers with occasional mile-high outlier.
In Game 3 – the outlier was Jerami Grant. The Lakers have no outlier. Because at best KCP, Kuzma and/or Rondo might return a serviceable 18 but that statement is somewhat of a stretch – and it is few and far between.
LeBron is slowly but surely increasing his productivity, and while his second-half was less than desirable – his metrics are trending towards ‘take-over’ levels from previous playoff campaigns.
LeBron has returned in game order shot counts of: 11, 20 and 23.
The concerns of Denver’s multiple positionless defenders causing LeBron issues aren’t valid from a pure shooting point of view (he has returned on average 55.1% from the floor) and is yet to stroke the 3-ball.
With the Miami Heat securing a Game 4 win today, to now be 1 game away from the NBA Finals has also applied perceived pressure on LeBron to get out of this series ASAP.
If LeBron takes, as expected, 20+ shots on the floor – with the game in check, which it will be – there is no way he scores less than 28. Well, there is some way – but it’s slim.
I expect LeBron to be far more aggressive in the paint, thus far, he is averaging a slim 3.3 FTA per game vs Denver which is -4 attempts from the previous two series.
The Lakers are desperate to get to 3-1, or this series is going the full count and we know who rises to the occasion when those two words are whispered in world sport – “Game Seven”, and it is the Denver Nuggets.
OTHER PLAYS – Anthony Davis was embarrassed on the glass, held boardless until the 4th quarter, and whilst his numbers were inflated against the Houston Rockets micro-ball line up, I expect him to be extremely active early and surpass his total of 9.5.
PICK – LEBRON JAMES OVER 27.5 PTS
LA LAKERS @ DENVER
LA LAKERS LEAD 2-1
PLAYER BETTING TRENDS
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has 10+ points in the Lakers’ last 5 games. (9.5)
- LeBron James has 29+ points in 8 of his last 10 games in Game 4s of a playoff series. (27.5)
- Rajon Rondo has 8+ assists in 6 of the Lakers’ last 7 games. (7.5)
- Paul Millsap has 6+ rebounds in the Nuggets’ last 3 games. (5.5)
- Anthony Davis has 31+ points in 6 of his last 8 games with his team as a favorite vs Nuggets. (27.5)
- Michael Porter Jr. has 11+ points in 6 of the Nuggets’ last 8 games at this venue. (10.5)
- Nikola Jokic has a double-double in 7 of the Nuggets’ last 9 games.
- Jamal Murray has a double-double in 2 of the Nuggets’ last 5 games against the Lakers.
() = BOOKIE LINE
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Over is 22-8-2 in the last 32 meetings.
- Lakers are 10-21 ATS in the last 31 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| GAME 3 | DEN | LAL | 114 : 106 |
| GAME 2 | LAL | DEN | 105 : 103 |
| GAME 1 | LAL | DEN | 126 : 114 |
| 11.08.20 | LAL | DEN | 124 : 121 |
| 13.02.20 | DEN | LAL | 116 : 120 (111 : 111) |
| 23.12.19 | LAL | DEN | 104 : 128 |
| 04.12.19 | DEN | LAL | 96 : 105 |
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| LAL | 52 | 19 | 25-10 | 27-9 |
| DEN | 46 | 27 | 26-11 | 20-16 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | AV. TOT |
| LAL | 113.4 | 107.6 | +5.8 | 221.0 |
| DEN | 111.3 | 109.2 | +2.1 | 220.5 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| DEN | OVER | LAL |
| +6.5 | 213.5 | 114-108 |
Denver got back into familiar place, another 2-1 series deficit, when they held off a late LA rally for a 114-106 win on Tuesday night.
LeBron led all scorers with 30 points to go with 11 assists and 10 rebounds, while partnr in crime Anthony Davis added 27 points on 9-for-17 from the field.
Jamal Murray continued his postseason swagger with a team-high 28 points and 12 assists. Nikola Jokic added 22 points and 10 rebounds for the Nuggets.
Turnovers have been an issue, but not so much a disadvantage for either team, with the Nuggets averaging 17.7 and the Lakers 16.7 turnonvers over the first 3 games.
Denver has overturned a free-throw deficit that was evident after Game 1 (37-28) by shooting 21 more than the Lakers over Games 2 and 3 (62-41), thanks to a more aggressive style of play.
It’s largely been a series held among 4 players, with Anthony Davis (95 points) and James (71), while for the Nuggets Jamal Murray (74) and Nikola Jokic (73) are the only ones to worry the scoring table.
It’s the performances outside of the two star players for either team that will dictate the outcome of Game 4.
Do we dare bet against our streak of Overs profits? No.
PICK – OVER 213.5 TOTAL POINTS
