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*Original NBA picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.
DP’S PLAYER PROP
SEASON RECORD: 22-12
Expert NBA Player Props Analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop, exclusive to subscribers.
Colin Sexton delivered a performance of exact measurement and prediction for our winning O18.5 points bet to bring up 20 prop wins this season.
37 minutes; 17 shot attempts for 21 points.
Moving into tonight, this scout did not take me long.
I really like Nikola Vucevic over 17.5 based an expected level of increased production.
Vucevic is trending upward in a big way, in particular, with J Isaac now sidelined for a period of time. Vucevic has returned 20+ points in 7 of his past 9 fixtures and most recently across his past two fixtures has averaged 19.5 shot attempts per game. Bingo bango.
Despite Bam being somewhat of a reasonable defender and rim protector, Orlando will look to work hard on Bam inside (just like Ian Mahinmi did for the Wizards) in order to create space and separation for guys like Evan Fournier.
I’ll be extremely confident if Gordon does not suit up, but regardless we are going to see a huge amount of offensive traffic through Vucevic and I expect another 20 point showing.
If you are searching for another prop bet, to celebrate my 20th win, here is a little extra.
CJ McCollum will have his own way against the Washington backcourt. Melo has his fun back at MSG, but the Blazers will roll hard and get moving on the defensively spineless Wizards.
DP’S PICK – NIKOLA VUCEVIC OVER 17.5 POINTS – WIN
DP’S BONUS PICK – CJ MCCOLLUM OVER 21.5 POINTS – WIN
PARLAY
PARLAY
- ATLANTA @ BOSTON – BOSTON -10.5 (Kemba Walker ruled OUT. Illness. VOID)
- PORTLAND @ WASHINGTON – PORTLAND WIN
- MIAMI @ ORLANDO – NIKOLA VUCEVIC OVER 17.5 POINTS
ODDS – $5.22
Gamble Responsibly.
ATLANTA @ BOSTON
TEAM TRENDS
HAWKS TRENDS
- 1-4 ATS in last 5 games overall.
- 1-6 ATS in last 7 road games.
- 1-4 ATS in last 5 games vs teams above .600.
- 1-10 ATS in last 11 games following an ATS win.
- Over is 7-1-1 in last 9 vs teams above .500.
- Over is 7-2 in last 9 road games.
- Under is 5-2 in last 7 games vs teams above .600.
CELTICS TRENDS
- 4-1 ATS in last 5 games vs teams below .400.
- 5-2 ATS in last 7 games overall.
- 5-1 ATS in last 6 games vs teams above .500.
- Over is 6-2 in last 8 vs teams above .500.
- Under is 5-1 in last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Hawks are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
- Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings.
- Over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Boston.
PLAYER TRENDS
- Trae Young has 30+ points in the Hawks’ last 4 games against Atlantic Division teams. (26.5)
- John Collins has 11+ rebounds in the Hawks’ last 3 games against the Celtics. (9.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| ATL | 7 | 27 | 3-12 | 4-15 |
| BOS | 23 | 8 | 13-2 | 10-6 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| ATL | 107.1 | 117.6 | -10.5 | 224.7 |
| BOS | 111.5 | 103.6 | +7.9 | 215.1 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| BOS | UNDER | BOS |
| -10.5 | 223.5 | 109-106 |
THE RUB
The Celtics are winners of 6 of their last 7 and began a streak of 5 straight games against sub-.500 teams by rolling over the Hornets 109-92 on Tuesday.
The Hawks ended a 10-game losing streak with a 101-93 win at Orlando on Monday despite leading scorer Trae Young sitting out to rest an ankle injury, however he looks to return tonight.
OUR PICK – BOSTON -10.5
MIAMI @ ORLANDO
TEAM TRENDS
HEAT TRENDS
- 11-4 ATS in last 15 games vs teams above .500.
- 1-4-2 ATS in last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.
- 0-3-1 ATS in last 4 games overall.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 road games.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 games as a favorite.
- Over is 15-5-1 in last 21 overall.
- Over is 19-8 in last 27 games playing on 0 days rest.
MAGIC TRENDS
- 3-7 ATS in last 10 home games.
- 1-3-1 ATS in last 5 games vs teams above .600.
- 10-25 ATS in last 35 Friday games.
- Over is 5-1 in last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
- Under is 4-1 in last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-1 in last 5 home games.
- Under is 5-2 in last 7 games vs teams above .600.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Heat are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
- Over is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings in Orlando.
PLAYER TRENDS
- Jimmy Butler has 22+ points in 5 of the Heat’s last 6 road games. (19.5)
- Evan Fournier has 22+ points in 4 of the Magic’s last 5 games against Southeast Division teams. (18.5)
- Bam Adebayo has 12+ rebounds in 4 of the Heat’s last 5 games. (11.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| MIA | 24 | 9 | 15-1 | 9-8 |
| ORL | 15 | 19 | 10-7 | 5-12 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| MIA | 112.4 | 108.2 | +4.2 | +220.6 |
| ORL | 103.4 | 104.6 | -1.2 | +208.0 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| MIA | UNDER | ORL |
| -1.0 | 208.0 | 105-85 |
THE RUB
The Heat look for their 7th win in their last 8 games after bouncing back from Monday’s road loss to the Washington Wizards to post an 84-76 win over the Raptors on Thursday and they haven’t lost 2-straight games this season.
Orlando eased to a 122-101 win over the host Wizards on Wednesday but could be without Aaron Gordon (Achilles) for the 3rd straight game. The Magic had lost 8 of 11 contests prior to the win over Washington.
OUR PICK – MIAMI WIN & UNDER 208.0
PORTLAND @ WASHINGTON
TEAM TRENDS
TRAIL BLAZERS TRENDS
- 1-5 ATS in last 6 games as a road favorite.
- 0-5-1 ATS in last 6 games overall.
- 0-3-1 ATS in last 4 games vs teams below .400.
- 0-5 ATS in last 5 road games.
- 1-6 ATS in last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Under is 6-0 in last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Under is 6-1 in last 7 road games.
- Under is 8-3 in last 11 games vs teams below .400.
- Under is 14-5 in last 19 vs teams above .500.
WIZARDS TRENDS
- 2-8 ATS in last 10 games vs teams above .500.
- 1-4 ATS in last 5 home games.
- 0-6 ATS in last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % below .400.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 overall.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 after scoring 100+ points in their last game.
- Over is 35-16-1 in last 52 games as an underdog.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Washington.
- Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| 19.11.18 | WAS | POR | 109 : 119 |
| 23.10.18 | POR | WAS | 124 : 125 (111 : 111) |
PLAYER TRENDS
- Carmelo Anthony has 19+ points in his 17 games at Capital One Arena. (17.5)
- Damian Lillard has 29+ points in the Blazers’ last 5 games against the Wizards. (26.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| POR | 14 | 21 | 8-9 | 6-12 |
| WAS | 10 | 23 | 5-9 | 5-14 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| POR | 112.0 | 114.1 | -2.1 | 226.1 |
| WAS | 116.2 | 121.0 | -4.8 | 237.2 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| POR | UNDER | POR |
| -5.5 | 235.0 | 122-103 |
THE RUB
The injury ravaged Wizards found some swagger against the Heat on Monday but lost it again on Wednesday, when they began the New Year with their 10th loss in 13 games.
The Blazers are losers of 5-straight and began a 5-game road trip with a 117-93 loss at the Knicks on Wednesday, killing our parlay in the process.
Trends lean to Overs, but the previous 2 contests this season produced 222 and 228 points.
OUR PICK – PORTLAND -5.5
PHILADELPHIA @ HOUSTON
TEAM TRENDS
76ERS TRENDS
- 1-3-1 ATS in last 5 games vs teams above .600.
- 2-6-1 ATS in last 9 road games.
- Over is 5-1 in last 6 games vs teams above .600.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 when their opponent scores 100+ points in their last game.
- Over is 6-2 in last 8 overall.
- Under is 7-3 in last 10 road games.
ROCKETS TRENDS
- 4-0 ATS in last 4 games vs teams above .600.
- 5-0 ATS in last 5 games vs teams above .500.
- 4-1 ATS in last 5 games as a favorite.
- 5-2 ATS in last 7 games overall.
- Under is 6-1 in last 7 vs teams above .500.
- Under is 36-17-1 in last 54 games vs teams above .600.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- 76ers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
PLAYER TRENDS
- James Harden has 39+ points in the Rockets’ last 4 games against Eastern Conference teams. (34.5)
- Joel Embiid has 27+ points in 4 of his last 5 games with the 76ers as underdogs. (24.5)
- Russell Westbrook has 28+ points in 6 of his last 7 games. (24.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| PHI | 23 | 13 | 16-2 | 7-11 |
| HOU | 23 | 11 | 12-4 | 11-7 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| PHI | 109.6 | 105.4 | +4.2 | 215.0 |
| HOU | 119.4 | 114 | +5.4 | 233.4 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| HOU | UNDER | HOU |
| -4.5 | 227.5 | 118-108 |
THE RUB
Philadelphia lost their last 3 games and trailed by as many as 36 points while being routed 115-97 at Indiana on Tuesday.
Harden (toe) missed his first game of the season on Sunday but bounced back with 35 points in Tuesday’s 130-104 rout of the visiting Nuggets.
Houston -4.5 is nice and we’ve been burned by the 76ers too many times.
OUR PICK – HOUSTON WIN
NEW YORK @ PHOENIX
TEAM TRENDS
KNICKS TRENDS
- 5-1 ATS in last 6 games following a straight up win.
- 5-1 ATS in last 6 road games.
- 4-1 ATS in last 5 games as a road underdog.
- 4-1 ATS in last 5 games vs teams below .400.
- 7-3 ATS in last 10 games overall.
- Under is 8-1-1 in last 10 Friday games.
- Under is 4-1 in last 5 overall.
- Under is 42-20-1 in last 63 games as an underdog.
- Under is 8-3 in last 11 games following a straight up win.
SUNS TRENDS
- 4-1 ATS in last 5 games overall.
- 2-6 ATS in last 8 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in last 5 games vs teams below .400.
- Over is 12-3 in last 15 home games.
- Over is 5-2 in last 7 overall.
- Over is 7-2 in last 9 games as a home favorite.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Knicks are 4-11-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
- Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.
- Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Phoenix.
PLAYER TRENDS
- Devin Booker has 32+ points in the Suns’ last 4 games. (27.5)
- Julius Randle has 30+ points in 3 of the Knicks’ last 4 games. (22.5)
() = BOOKIE LINE
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| NY | 10 | 24 | 5-12 | 5-12 |
| PHO | 13 | 20 | 6-12 | 7-8 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| NY | 103.7 | 110.9 | -7.2 | 214.6 |
| PHO | 114.3 | 115.1 | -0.8 | 229.4 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| NY | UNDER | PHO |
| +7.5 | 225.5 | 120-112 |
THE RUB
The Knicks are suddenly gaining some W’s under interim coach Mike Miller and will look to extend their season-best streak to 4 in a row when they open a four-game winning trip tonight. The Knicks are 6-6 under Miller after starting the season 4-18.
The Suns lost 9 of their last 11 but ended a 4-game road trip strong with wins in Sacramento and Portland before losing 117-107 to the Lakers on Wednesday.
OUR PICK – UNDER 225.5
NEW ORLEANS @ LA LAKERS
TEAM TRENDS
PELICANS TRENDS
- 4-0 ATS in last 4 games overall.
- 3-0-1 ATS in last 4 games vs teams above .600.
- 3-1-1 ATS in last 5 road games.
- 7-20 ATS in last 27 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 vs teams above .500.
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 games vs teams above .600.
- Under is 5-2 in last 7 overall.
LAKERS TRENDS
- 9-1 ATS in last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % below .400.
- 7-2 ATS in last 9 games vs teams below .500.
- 2-6 ATS in last 8 games as a favorite.
- 2-7 ATS in last 9 games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 vs teams below .500.
- Under is 6-2 in last 8 overall.
- Under is 38-16-1 in last 55 home games.
- Under is 20-8 in last 28 home games vs. a team with a road winning % below .400.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Pelicans are 17-8 ATS in the last 25 meetings in Los Angeles.
- Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| 28.11.19 | NOR | LAL | 110 : 114 |
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| NOR | 11 | 23 | 6-11 | 5-12 |
| LAL | 26 | 7 | 11-4 | 15-3 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| NOR | 112.3 | 116.4 | -4.1 | 228.7 |
| LAL | 112.4 | 105.3 | +7.1 | 217.7 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| NOR | UNDER | LAL |
| +10.5 | 225.5 | 123-113 |
THE R
The Pelicans have won a season-best four consecutive games by an average of 14.3 points, the most recent being Sunday’s solid 127-112 home win over the Houston Rockets.
The Lakers look for a fourth straight victory after nearly blowing a 36-point lead, eventually holding off the Phoenix Suns 117-107 on Wednesday.
Lakers just not putting teams away and the +10.5 for the Pelicans is value.
OUR PICK – NEW ORLEANS +10.5
