FREE NBA PICKS
*Original NBA picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.
DP’S PLAYER PROP
SEASON RECORD: 11-6
Expert NBA Player Props Analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop, exclusive to subscribers.
Prop Punters – we suffered a pepper-spray beat on Sunday, with Brandon Ingram battling foul trouble all game; returning 21 points in a negligible 27 minutes, after sitting the 2nd term and taking his 5th foul half-way through the 3rd BUT we’re back with a double set to keep us going!
MIAMI @ MEMPHIS
Kendrick Nunn has played significant minutes throughout November (35 mpg), courtesy of 4 overtime games and a short-handed Heat roster – less Dragic & Winslow.
While from a statistical point of view, this presents greater opportunity, Nunn has actually shot a season worst 40% from the floor, regressing from a previous 44% in November and 52% in October.
Of late, Nunn has really struggled to get going offensively outside of his 36 against the defensively spineless Hawks, returning an average of 12.4 ppg in November (if you withdraw that 36 point game outlier, in which he also took +12 shots over his season average).
This game also marks 3 games in 4 days for the Heat and with strong consideration around the Grizzlies competitiveness as of late, winning 3 of their past 4 and I expect the home side to put in another spirited performance.
DP’S BEST BET – Kendrick Nunn Under 16.5 Points
DALLAS @ MILWAUKEE
Many punters would be thinking now is the time to cash in on the 7’3 Latvian to get bulk buckets without the productivity of Luka Doncic but I’m taking a firm stance here on the 
UNDERS in this fixture.
Porzingis will arguably face his toughest assignment to date; coming off 40 minutes in an emotional loss after being down 25 points to the Heat, no Luka Doncic to create space and separation and Giannis waiting eagerly on each and every single defensive possession.
My scout here suggests that Giannis walks into this fixture fresh and healthy, playing a season low 27 mpg throughout November – ready to cause defensive havoc big-V-big.
I also expect Kristaps minutes to be somewhat monitored and whilst his shot count may increase in lieu of no Doncic – Porzingis is shooting 39% on the floor and not making enough trips to the stripe to warrant any attention on the overs.
This is a crystal clear bet for me – Kristaps is in for a tough night against the long and rangy Bucks.
DP’S BEST BET – KRISTAPS PORZINGIS UNDER 21.5 Points
Gamble Responsibly.
TREND BETS
SEASON RECORD: 8-6
MIAMI @ MEMPHIS
HEAT TRENDS
- 11-2-1 ATS in last 14 vs teams below .400.
- 12-3 ATS in last 15 games as a favorite.
- 10-4 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite.
- 17-8-1 ATS in last 26 games overall.
GRIZZLIES TRENDS
- 3-8 ATS in last 11 games following a straight win.
- 3-8 ATS in last 11 vs teams above .500.
- 1-5 ATS in last 6 games following an ATS win.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Heat are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
TREND BET – MIAMI -4.5
DALLAS @ MILWAUKEE
MAVERICKS TRENDS
- Over is 5-1 in last 6 road vs teams with winning home records.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 overall.
- Over is 6-2 in last 8 vs teams above .600.
- Over is 9-3 in last 12 vs teams above .500.
- Over is 8-3 in last 11 road games.
- Over is 17-8 in last 25 after allowing 100+ points in their last game.
BUCKS TRENDS
- Over is 20-3 in last 23 vs teams above .500.
- Over is 8-3 in last 11 home vs teams with road winning %’s over .600.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Over is 24-11 in the last 35 meetings.
- Over is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings in Milwaukee.
TREND BET – OVER 227.0
Gamble Responsibly.
WASHINGTON @ DETROIT
TEAM TRENDS
WIZARDS TRENDS
- 13-29-1 ATS in last 43 road vs teams with winning home records.
- 2-6 ATS in last 8 games overall.
- 1-4 ATS in last 5 road games.
- 0-4 ATS in last 4 vs teams below .500.
- Under is 4-1 in last 5 vs teams below .500.
- Under is 9-4 in last 13 games after allowing 125+ points in their last game.
PISTONS TRENDS
- 6-1 ATS in last 7 home vs teams with losing road records.
- 5-2 ATS in last 7 games overall.
- 5-2 ATS in last 7 vs teams below .500.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 home games.
- Over is 8-3 in last 11 games as a home underdog.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| 05.11.19 | WAS | DET | 115 : 99 |
PLAYER TRENDS
- Davis Bertans has 19+ points in the Wizards’ last 5 games against East teams.
- Derrick Rose has 23+ points in 6 of his last 7 home games against the Wizards.
- Bradley Beal has 30+ points in 5 of the Wizards’ last 6 road games against Central teams.
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| WAS | 7 | 17 | 4-6 | 3-11 |
| DET | 11 | 15 | 7-6 | 4-9 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| WAS | 117.4 | 122.4 | -5.0 | 239.8 |
| DET | 108.9 | 108.7 | +0.2 | 217.6 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| DET | UNDER | WAS |
| -5.0 | 229.0 | 133-119 |
THE RUB
Detroit’s 5-2 run includes a home win over a solid Indiana team and a very impressive 115-107 win at Houston on Saturday night. The win came with Andre Drummond sidelined with an eye infection and Blake Griffin playing just one half and shooting 0-for-7 before leaving with a knee issue.
The Wizards have lost 4-straight and 7 of the last 8 games after a 128-111 loss at Memphis on Saturday, falling to 3-11 on the road.
With centers Thomas Bryant (foot) and Moritz Wagner (ankle) out Saturday, Washington was outrebounded 58-37 and gave up a whopping 70 points in the paint against the Grizzlies.
OUR PICK – DETROIT -5.0
CLEVELAND @ TORONTO
TEAM TRENDS
CAVALIERS TRENDS
- 4-12 ATS in last 16 games overall.
- 2-6 ATS in last 8 vs teams above .600.
- 2-8 ATS in last 10 vs teams above .500.
- 1-6 ATS in last 7 road games.
- 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as an underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 vs teams above .500.
- Over is 9-2 in last 11 road vs teams with home winning %’s over .600.
RAPTORS TRENDS
- 25-7 ATS in last 32 games playing on 1 days rest.
- 10-3 ATS in last 13 vs teams below .500.
- 11-4 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite.
- 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 home games.
- 14-6 ATS in last 20 games as a favorite.
- 1-5 ATS in last 6 games overall.
- Under is 4-0-1 in last 5 overall.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 vs teams below .400.
- Over is 7-2 in last 9 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 21-7-1 in last 29 vs teams below .500.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Cavaliers are 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
- Cavaliers are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Toronto.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
- Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Toronto.
PLAYER TRENDS
- Marc Gasol has 11+ points in each of his last 9 home games against the Cavaliers.
- Kyle Lowry has 20+ points in 9 of his last 11 games against the Cavaliers in Toronto.
- Collin Sexton has 10 points or less in the Cavaliers’ last 3 road games against East teams.
- Kevin Love has 11+ rebounds in 6 of his last 8 games against the Raptors.
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| CLE | 6 | 20 | 3-10 | 3-10 |
| TOR | 17 | 8 | 10-3 | 7-5 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| CLE | 103.3 | 113.5 | -10.2 | 216.8 |
| TOR | 110.8 | 105.4 | +5.4 | 216.2 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| TOR | OVER | TOR |
| -12.0 | 216.5 | 133-113 |
THE RUB
The Raptors started the season 9-0 at home before losses to Miami, Houston and the Clippers, but were able to get back on track on Saturday with a 110-102 win over the Nets.
The Cavaliers were the latest victim of the Bucks, who picked up their 18th straight win with a 125-108 win over Cleveland, with the Cavalier’s starting 5 combining for just 50 points on 39.2% shooting with 13 turnovers in their 9th loss in 10 games.
Trends lean heavily to the Raptors ATS tonight.
OUR PICK – TORONTO -12.0
SAN ANTONIO @ HOUSTON
TEAM TRENDS
SPURS TRENDS
- 3-7 ATS in last 10 games as an underdog.
- 2-5 ATS in last 7 vs teams above .500.
- 7-18-1 ATS in last 26 games overall.
- 1-4-1 ATS in last 6 road games.
- 1-5 ATS in last 6 games as a road underdog.
- 4-17 ATS in last 21 games following a straight win.
- Under is 5-1 in last 6 vs teams above .500.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 overall.
- Over is 6-2 in last 8 road games.
- Under is 5-2 in last 7 vs teams above .600.
ROCKETS TRENDS
- 1-4 ATS in last 5 games overall.
- 1-5 ATS in last 6 games as a favorite.
- 1-5 ATS in last 6 vs teams below .500.
- Over is 5-2-1 in last 8 home vs teams with road winning %’s bellow .400.
- Under is 7-3 in last 10 games following a ATS loss.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Spurs are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Houston.
- Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
- Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Houston.
SEASON SERIES
| 04.12.19 | SAN | HOU | 135 : 133 (115 : 115) |
PLAYER TRENDS
- DeMar DeRozan has 5+ assists in his last 4 games against the Rockets at Toyota Center.
- Clint Capela has scored the 1st basket in the last 2 games between the Spurs and Rockets.
- James Harden has 50+ points in the Rockets’ last 2 games against the Spurs.
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| SAS | 10 | 15 | 7-7 | 3-8 |
| HOU | 17 | 9 | 9-4 | 8-5 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| SAS | 111.9 | 115.6 | -3.7 | 227.5 |
| HOU | 120.1 | 114.6 | +5.5 | 234.7 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| SAS | UNDER | HOU |
| +10.0 | 232.5 | 109-107 |
THE RUB
San Antonio has been below .500 for more days this season (32) than in their last 10 seasons combined (28), but have managed to notch a few wins lately.
The Spurs set a record on Saturday, playing in their 4th-straight OT game – a stretch that began with a double-OT win over the Rockets on Dec. 3rd.
Westbrook returns tonight after a rest, and with the Spurs playing plenty of minutes over their last 4 games, we expect the Rockets to get up in a high-scoring game.
OUR PICK – UNDER 232.5
MIAMI @ MEMPHIS
TEAM TRENDS
HEAT TRENDS
- 11-2-1 ATS in last 14 vs teams below .400.
- 12-3 ATS in last 15 games as a favorite.
- 10-4 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite.
- 17-8-1 ATS in last 26 games overall.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 overall.
- Over is 6-1-1 in last 8 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 vs teams below .400.
- Under is 16-7 in last 23 road vs teams with home winning %’s below .400.
GRIZZLIES TRENDS
- 3-8 ATS in last 11 games following a straight win.
- 3-8 ATS in last 11 vs teams above .600.
- 3-8 ATS in last 11 vs teams above .500.
- 1-5 ATS in last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 vs teams above .600.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 home games.
- Over is 17-8 in last 25 games as a home underdog.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings in Memphis.
- Heat are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
- Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
SEASON SERIES
| 24.10.19 | MIA | MEM | 120 : 101 |
PLAYER TRENDS
- Kendrick Nunn has 13 points or less in the Heat’s last 6 road games.
- Bam Adebayo has 17+ points in the Heat’s last 4 games as favourites.
- Ja Morant has 7+ assists in 4 of his last 5 games against East teams.
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| MIA | 19 | 7 | 11-1 | 8-6 |
| MEM | 9 | 17 | 4-11 | 5-6 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| MIA | 112.3 | 106.9 | +5.4 | 219.2 |
| MEM | 109.9 | 116.2 | -6.3 | 226.1 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| MIA | OVER | MEM |
| -4.5 | 216.5 | 118-111 |
THE RUB
Behind 25 points from rookie Brandon Clarke, Memphis rolled to a 128-111 win over the Wizards on Saturday, their 3rd win over their last 4 games, snapping a 7-game home losing streak in the process.
The Heat have yet to lose consecutive games, bouncing back from a loss to the Lakers at home by edging past Dallas 122-118 in OT to begin a 3-game road trip.
4 of Miami’s last 7 games have gone to OT, winning all 4 and improving to 5-0 overall in OT games.
Memphis has lost 7 of its last 8 straight up at home and 10 of its last 14 overall
Heat tonight.
OUR PICK – MIAMI -4.5
DALLAS @ MILWAUKEE
TEAM TRENDS
MAVERICKS TRENDS
- 9-1 ATS in last 10 road vs teams with home winning %’s over .600.
- 12-2 ATS in last 14 road vs teams with winning home records.
- 7-1-1 ATS in last 9 games as a road underdog.
- 11-3 ATS in last 14 games overall.
- 20-8-1 ATS in last 29 road games.
- 36-17 ATS in last 53 vs teams above .600.
- Over is 5-1 in last 6 road vs teams with winning home records.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 overall.
- Over is 6-2 in last 8 vs teams above .600.
- Over is 9-3 in last 12 vs teams above .500.
- Over is 8-3 in last 11 road games.
BUCKS TRENDS
- 7-1 ATS in last 8 games overall.
- 7-1 ATS in last 8 games following a straight up win.
- 5-1 ATS in last 6 games as a home favorite.
- 5-1 ATS in last 6 home games.
- 4-1 ATS in last 5 vs teams above .500.
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 vs teams above .600.
- Over is 20-3 in last 23 vs teams above .500.
- Over is 8-3 in last 11 home vs teams with road winning %’s over .600.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Over is 24-11 in the last 35 meetings.
- Over is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings in Milwaukee.
- Mavericks are 6-1-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
- Mavericks are 2-0-2 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Milwaukee.
SEASON SERIES
FIRST MEETING
PLAYER TRENDS
- Khris Middleton has scored the 1st basket in the Bucks’ last 3 games.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo has 15+ rebounds in 4 of the Bucks’ last 5 games against the Mavericks.
- Tim Hardaway has 18+ points in 4 of his last 5 road games against the Bucks.
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| DAL | 17 | 8 | 8-6 | 9-2 |
| MIL | 24 | 3 | 13-1 | 11-2 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| DAL | 118.1 | 109.0 | +9.1 | 227.1 |
| MIL | 121.2 | 107.6 | +13.6 | 228.8 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| DAL | OVER | DAL |
| +11.0 | 227.0 | 120-116 |
THE RUB
Seeing Doncic go down against the Heat was a double whammy in that we love Luka, and it also killed our Parlay.
Doncic sprained his right ankle after stepping on the foot of Miami’s Kendrick Nunn while driving to the basket in just the 2nd minute of the 1st quarter of Saturday’s 122-118 loss to the Heat in OT.
X-rays were negative for Doncic who is averaging team-leading totals in points (29.3), rebounds (9.6) and assists (8.9) this season.
Without their Euro star on the court tonight, and likely out at least 2-weeks, the Mavs will struggle against the league’s hottest team.
Milwaukee strolled to a 125-108 home win over the Cavs on Saturday to push their streak 18-straight, despite starting point guard Eric Bledsoe sitting out with a leg injury.
Dallas should keep it respectable in a Bucks home win. Overs best.
OUR PICK – OVER 227.0
CHICAGO @ OKLAHOMA CITY
TEAM TRENDS
BULLS TRENDS
- 5-0 ATS in last 5 games as an underdog.
- 5-0 ATS in last 5 games as a road underdog.
- 4-1 ATS in last 5 games overall.
- 5-2 ATS in last 7 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 after scoring 100+ points in their last game.
- Over is 17-4 in last 21 road vs teams with winning home records.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 vs teams below .500.
THUNDER TRENDS
- 6-0 ATS in last 6 vs teams below .500.
- 5-1 ATS in last 6 home games.
- 4-1 ATS in last 5 games overall.
- 9-2 ATS in last 11 games following an ATS loss.
- 4-1 ATS in last 5 games as a home favorite.
- 1-4 ATS in last 5 vs teams below .400.
- Under is 7-1 in last 8 when their opponent allows 100+ points in their last game.
- Under is 9-2 in last 11 home vs teams with road winning %’s below .400.
- Under is 6-2 in last 8 overall.
- Under is 6-2 in last 8 games as a favorite.
- Under is 6-2 in last 8 vs teams below .400.
- Over is 5-2 in last 7 home games.
PLAYER TRENDS
- Steven Adams has scored the 1st basket in the Thunder’s last 3 games.
- Danilo Gallinari has 22+ points in 4 of his last 5 games against the Bulls.
- Zach LaVine has 25+ points in 5 of the Bulls’ last 6 road games.
- Steven Adams has 11+ rebounds in 4 of his last 5 games with the Thunder as home favourites.
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| CHI | 10 | 18 | 6-10 | 4-8 |
| OKC | 11 | 14 | 7-5 | 4-9 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| CHI | 105.5 | 107.3 | -1.8 | 212.8 |
| OKC | 107.5 | 107.3 | +0.2 | 214.8 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| OKC | UNDER | OKC |
| -5.5 | 210.0 | 109-106 |
THE RUB
The Bulls have been high and low all year, beating Atlanta 136-102, losing to the Hornets 83-73 and then beating the Clippers 109-106 on Saturday to pull to a 10-18 record.
The Bulls rank 3rd worst in the league in offensively and the Thunder play at a slow tempo (25th in the league).
OKC at home should be too good.
OUR PICK – OKLAHOMA CITY WIN & UNDER 210.0
PORTLAND @ PHOENIX
TEAM TRENDS
TRAIL BLAZERS TRENDS
- 11-4 ATS in last 15 games playing on 3+ days rest.
- 11-5 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite.
- 2-5 ATS in last 7 games overall.
- 3-8 ATS in last 11 road games.
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 road games.
- Under is 6-1 in last 7 when their opponent allows 100+ points in their last game.
- Under is 5-2 in last 7 overall.
SUNS TRENDS
- 3-1-1 ATS in last 5 games overall.
- 5-2-1 ATS in last 8 vs teams below .400.
- 9-4-1 ATS in last 14 vs teams below .500.
- 1-5-1 ATS in last 7 home games.
- 3-7-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in last 5 vs teams below .500.
- Over is 14-5 in last 19 overall.
- Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Phoenix.
MATCHUP TRENDS
- Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Phoenix.
PLAYER TRENDS
- Hassan Whiteside has 23+ points in his last 4 games against the Suns.
- C.J. McCollum has 21+ points in 9 of his last 10 games against the Suns.
- Damian Lillard has 27+ points in 4 of the Trail Blazers’ last 5 road games against the Suns.
WIN/LOSS
| TEAM | W | L | HOME | ROAD |
| POR | 10 | 16 | 5-6 | 5-10 |
| PHO | 11 | 14 | 6-9 | 5-5 |
SEASON POINTS +/-
| TEAM | PPG | OPPG | DIFF | TOT. AV |
| POR | 112.3 | 114.3 | -2.0 | 226.6 |
| PHO | 115.5 | 114.3 | +1.2 | 229.8 |
PICKS ATS
| Spread | Points | Result |
| POR | UNDER | POR |
| +1.0 | 229.0 | 111-110 |
THE RUB
The Suns traveled to Mexico City over the weekend but a change in scenery couldn’t get them going, losing for the 10th time in the last 14 games in a 121-119 OT loss to the Spurs.
Portland are struggling with losses in 3 of 4 and dropped the opener of the 2-game road trip with a 114-99 setback at Denver on Thursday.
Portland owns a 10-game winning streak in the series and we’ll back them in to sneak one in tonight. Low stakes only.
OUR PICK – PORTLAND +1.0
