8 GAMES – NBA TIPS – 14/12/19

FREE NBA PICKS

*Original NBA picks and research are done a game day morning, adjust your selections accordingly should spreads and lineups change.

DP’S NBA PLAYER PROP

SEASON RECORD: 11-5

Expert NBA Player Props Analyst, Daniel Parisi, gives his best daily prop, exclusive to subscribers.

MIAMI @ DALLAS

The Miami Heat have endured an interesting week of hoops; two OT wins against the Bulls and Hawks, plus a grueling loss at the hands of the leagues hottest unit in the LA Lakers.

Playing short handed without Dragic and Winslow has resulted in significant minutes for the Heat core which will gift Dallas and Porzingis a relatively stress free night on the glass.

The Mavericks lead the league in contested rebounds at 16.3 compared to the Heat who round out in the bottom 5. With heavy legs, playing on a back to back set – I expect the Mavericks to be +10 on the glass, paving the way for a big boards night, with Porzingis the benefactor.

DP’S BEST BET – PORZINGIS OVER 7.5 REBOUNDS – WIN

TREND BETS

SEASON RECORD: 8-5

OKLAHOMA CITY @ DENVER

OKLAHOMA CITY

  • Under is 4-0 in last 4 road games.
  • Under is 6-1 in last 7 overall.
  • Under is 8-3-1 in last 12 vs teams above .500.
  • Under is 35-17-1 in last 53 games vs teams above .600.

DENVER

  • Under is 13-3 in last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Under is 18-6 in last 24 overall.
  • Under is 24-8 in last 32 home games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Denver.

TREND BET – UNDER 205.5 (Against our own pick tonight, but if trends are your thing, this is pretty strong).

CAVALIERS @ BUCKS

CLEVELAND

  • 2-5 ATS in last 7 games vs teams above .600.
  • 4-11 ATS in last 15 games overall.
  • 2-7 ATS in last 9 games vs teams above .500.
  • 1-5 ATS in last 6 road games.

MILWAUKEE

  • 5-1 ATS in last 6 games overall.
  • 4-1 ATS in last 5 home games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Milwaukee.

TREND BET – MILWAUKEE -13.0 – WIN

SAN ANTONIO @ PHOENIX

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

SPURS TRENDS

  • 7-3 ATS in last 10 games as a road favorite.
  • 8-20 ATS in last 28 games overall.
  • 1-4 ATS in last 5 road games.
  • 1-7 ATS in last 8 games as a favorite.
  • 0-4 ATS in last 4 games vs teams below .500.
  • Under is 6-2 in last 8 after scoring 100+ points in their last game.
  • Under is 6-2 in last 8 vs teams below .500.
  • Over is 5-2 in last 7 road games.

SUNS  TRENDS

  • 5-2 ATS in last 7 games vs teams below .400.
  • 9-4 ATS in last 13 games following a straight up loss.
  • 9-4 ATS in last 13 games vs teams below .500.
  • 1-5 ATS in last 6 home games.
  • Over is 7-1 in last 8 home games vs teams with road winning %’s below .400.
  • Over is 9-2 in last 11 home games.
  • Over is 13-5 in last 18 overall.
  • Under is 5-2 in last 7 games vs teams below .400.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.

PLAYER TRENDS

  • DeMar DeRozan has 22+ points in 8 of his last 10 games against the Suns.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
SAS 9 15 7-7 2-8
PHX 11 13 6-8 5-5

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT. AV
SAS 111.5 115.5 -4.0 217.0
PHX 115.4 114.0 +1.4 219.4

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
SAS SAS
+2.5 TBC 121-119 1OT

THE RUB

Second game for the year in Mexico where the Suns will be sporting their Los Suns City jerseys.

Losing to the Cavs at home would of been rock bottom for the Spurs, and expect them to bounce back.

OUR PICK  –  San Antonio +2.5

BROOKLYN @ TORONTO

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

NETS TRENDS

  • 7-0 ATS in last 7 games following a ATS loss.
  • 5-1 ATS in last 6 games overall.
  • 5-1 ATS in last 6 games as an underdog.
  • 1-5 ATS in last 6 road games vs teams with winning home records.
  • Under is 5-2-1 in last 8 games vs teams above .600.
  • Over is 32-14 in last 46 road games vs teams with winning home records.

RAPTORS TRENDS

  • 10-4 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
  • 12-5-1 ATS in last 18 home games.
  • 13-6 ATS in last 19 games as a favorite.
  • 0-5 ATS in last 5 games overall.
  • 0-4 ATS in last 4 games vs teams above .500.
  • Under is 3-0-1 in last 4 overall.
  • Over is 7-1 in last 8 games as a home favorite.
  • Over is 5-2 in last 7 vs teams above .500.
  • Over is 7-3 in last 10 home games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Toronto.

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Spencer Dinwiddie has 24+ points in 5 of the Nets’ last six games.
  • Kyle Lowry has 8+ assists in 8 of the Raptors’ last 10 games against the Nets at Scotiabank Arena.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
BKN 13 11 7-5 6-6
TOR 16 8 9-3 7-5

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT. AV
BKN 112.4 112.9 -0.5 215.3
TOR 110.8 105.5 +5.3 216.3

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
TOR Under TOR
-7.0 219.0 110-102

THE RUB

The Raptors are in need of a win after losing 4 of their last 5 games. Their impeccable home record has taken a beating in the last week with 3 straight losses (Heat, Rockets & Clippers). Although, not bad teams at all.

They do have an advantage with Kyrie still out, like the North to take control.

OUR PICK  –  Toronto -7.0

LA CLIPPERS @ CHICAGO

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

CLIPPERS TRENDS

  • 4-0 ATS in last 4 games as a favorite.
  • 5-1 ATS in last 6 games overall.
  • 5-2 ATS in last 7 games vs teams below .400.
  • 21-9 ATS in last 30 games as a road favorite.
  • Under is 4-1 in last 5 overall.
  • Under is 4-1 in last 5 road games.
  • Under is 6-2 in last 8 games playing on 0 days rest.
  • Over is 7-3 in last 10 games as a road favorite.
  • Over is 20-9 in last 29 road games vs teams with home winning %’s below .400.

BULLS TRENDS

  • 4-0 ATS in last 4 games as an underdog.
  • 6-1 ATS in last 7 games overall.
  • 13-29 ATS in last 42 home games.
  • Under is 4-1 in last 5 vs teams above .500.
  • Under is 4-1 in last 5 home games.
  • Under is 5-2-1 in last 8 games playing on 0 days rest.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Clippers are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Chicago.
  • Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
  • Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Lauri Markkanen has 13 points or less in the Bulls’ last 7 games as home underdogs.
  • Zach LaVine has 29+ points in the Bulls’ last 2 games against the Clippers.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
LAC 20 7 13-1 7-6
CHI 9 18 5-10 4-8

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT. AV
LAC 115.3 108.0 +7.3 223.3
CHI 105.3 107.4 -2.1 212.7

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
CHI Under CHI
+4.5 217.0 109-106

THE RUB

This is a pure hunch tip here with Kawhi and Lou expected to sit and an almost .500 road record.

The Clippers were the 4th team this season to reach the 20 wins mark while the Bulls became the second team to lose to the Hornets twice. Chicago are a tipping black hole and should be avoided at all cost.

They only managed 73 points for the game last night against the Hronets which was the lowest of all teams for season 19/20.

Perhaps avoid this one.

OUR PICK  –  Clippers WIN

WASHINGTON @ MEMPHIS

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

WIZARDS TRENDS

  • 12-27-1 ATS in last 40 road games vs teams with losing home records.
  • 2-5 ATS in last 7 games overall.
  • 3-13 ATS in last 16 road games vs teams with home winning %’s below .400.
  • Over is 9-4 in last 13 games vs teams below .400.
  • Over is 8-3 in last 11 road games vs teams with home winning %’s below .400.

GRIZZLIES TRENDS

  • 2-5 ATS in last 7 games vs teams below .400.
  • 5-16 ATS in last 21 games playing on 0 days rest.
  • 1-7 ATS in last 8 home games vs teams with road winning %’s below .400.
  • Under is 5-1 in last 6 games vs teams below .400.
  • Under is 5-2 in last 7 overall.
  • Under is 14-6-1 in last 21 home games vs teams with road winning %’s below .400.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Wizards are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Memphis.
  • Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Memphis.
  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Davis Bertans has 19+ points in the Wizards’ last 6 games.
  • Bradley Beal has 23 points or less in 5 of the Wizards’ last 6 road games.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
WAS 7 16 4-6 3-10
MEM 8 17 3-11 5-6

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT. AV
WAS 117.7 122.1 -4.4 239.8
MEM 109.2 116.4 -7.2 224.6

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
WAS Under MEM
+1.0 237.0 128-111

THE RUB

The Wizards have had a few days off and get their opponents on a B2B. Memphis are 3-11 on home court which does reflect their young lineup with Morant returning from injury tonight.

Washington for a point of difference, we do see teams taking some time to gel after key players return from a stint out.

OUR PICK  –  Washington WIN

MIAMI @ DALLAS

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

HEAT TRENDS

  • 1-4 ATS in last 5 games vs teams above .600.
  • 1-5 ATS in last 6 games vs teams above .500.
  • 0-4-1 ATS in last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
  • Under is 4-1 in last 5 games vs teams above .600.
  • Under is 3-1-1 in last 5 road games.
  • Over is 5-2 in last 7 vs teams above .500.

MAVERICKS TRENDS

  • 9-1 ATS in last 10 games as a favorite.
  • 6-1 ATS in last 7 games overall.
  • 6-1 ATS in last 7 games as a home favorite.
  • 11-3 ATS in last 14 games vs teams above .500.
  • 6-2 ATS in last 8 home games.
  • 36-16 ATS in last 52 games vs teams above .600.
  • Over is 5-1 in last 6 games as a home favorite.
  • Over is 7-2 in last 9 games as a favorite.
  • Over is 5-2 in last 7 games vs teams above .600.
  • Over is 5-2 in last 7 home games.
  • Over is 16-7 in last 23 overall.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.
  • Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
  • Heat are 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Dallas.
  • Heat are 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Kristaps Porzingis has 20+ points in his last 5 Saturday night games.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
MIA 18 7 11-1 7-6
DAL 17 7 8-5 9-2

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT. AV
MIA 111.9 106.4 +5.5 218.3
DAL 118.1 108.4 +9.7 226.5

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
DAL Over MIA
-7.0 215.5 122-118 1OT

THE RUB

By far the two most improved teams of the season. Miami are on a road B2B and had a grueling encounter against the Lakers which does give the Mavericks the upper hand.

Trends ATS also lean heavily towards the Mavs.

OUR PICK  –  Dallas -7.0

CLEVELAND @ MILWAUKEE

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

CAVALIERS TRENDS

  • 2-5 ATS in last 7 games vs teams above .600.
  • 4-11 ATS in last 15 games overall.
  • 2-7 ATS in last 9 games vs teams above .500.
  • 1-5 ATS in last 6 road games.
  • Over is 5-1 in last 6 road games.
  • Under is 6-2 in last 8 games vs teams above .600.

BUCKS TRENDS

  • 5-1 ATS in last 6 games overall.
  • 4-1 ATS in last 5 home games.
  • Under is 5-2 in last 7 home games vs teams with road winning %’s below .400.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Milwaukee.
  • Over is 19-8 in the last 27 meetings.
  • Over is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in Milwaukee.

SEASON SERIES

SEASON SERIES ->
30.11.19 CLE MIL 110 : 119
29.10.19 MIL CLE 129 : 112

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Khris Middleton has the first basket in 3 of the Bucks’ last 4 games.
    Jordan Clarkson has 17+ points in 4 of the Cavaliers’ last 5 games against the Bucks.
    Tristan Thompson has 7 rebounds or less in 4 of the Cavaliers’ last 5 games.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
CLE 6 19 3-10 3-9
MIL 23 3 12-1 11-2

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT. AV
CLE 103.2 113.0 -9.8 216.2
MIL 121.0 107.6 +13.4 228.6

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
MIL Under MIL
-13.0 223.0 125-108

THE RUB

What we know about the Bucks is they enjoy a big win at home, beating down the lower sides of the league. Currently averaging almost 18+ in home court winning margin differential, expect the same to happen tonight, even on a B2B.

OUR PICK  –  Milwaukee -13.0

OKLAHOMA CITY @ DENVER

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

THUNDER TRENDS

  • 4-0 ATS in last 4 games overall.
  • 4-0 ATS in last 4 road games.
  • 8-2 ATS in last 10 games as an underdog.
  • 7-2 ATS in last 9 games vs teams above .500.
  • 5-2 ATS in last 7 games vs teams above .600.
  • Under is 4-0 in last 4 road games.
  • Under is 6-1 in last 7 overall.
  • Under is 8-3-1 in last 12 vs teams above .500.
  • Under is 35-17-1 in last 53 games vs teams above .600.

NUGGETS TRENDS

  • 5-1 ATS in last 6 games vs teams below .500.
  • 5-2 ATS in last 7 home games.
  • Under is 11-1 in last 12 home games vs teams with road winning %’s below .400.
  • Over is 10-2 in last 12 vs teams below .500.
  • Under is 13-3 in last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Under is 18-6 in last 24 overall.
  • Under is 24-8 in last 32 home games.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Thunder are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Denver.
  • Thunder are 0-9 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
  • Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Denver.

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Nikola Jokic has the 1st basket in 3 of the Nuggets’ last 4 games against the Thunder.
  • Chris Paul has 15+ points in his last 9 road games against the Nuggets.
  • Jamal Murray has 19+ points in the Nuggets’ last 4 games against the Thunder.
  • Steven Adams has 10 points or less in 9 of his last 11 games against the Nuggets at Pepsi Center.
  • Nikola Jokic has 23+ points in 5 of the Nuggets’ last 6 games against the Thunder.
  • Nikola Jokic has 9+ assists in the Nuggets’ last 3 home games against the Thunder.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
OKC 11 13 7-5 4-8
DEN 15 8 9-3 6-5

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT. AV
OKC 107.8 107.2 +0.6 215.0
DEN 106.2 101.6 +4.6 207.8

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
DEN Over DEN
-7.0 204.0 110-102

THE RUB

The Nuggets will look to continue their dominance over the Thunder, victors in their last 4 games on home court with last seasons series ending 4-0 Denver’s way, with margins above 7 points.

OUR PICK  –  Over 204.0

DETROIT @ HOUSTON

TEAM TRENDS

TEAM TRENDS ->

PISTONS TRENDS

  • 11-23-1 ATS in last 35 games overall.
  • 2-8-1 ATS in teir last 11 road games.
  • 1-6 ATS in last 7 games vs teams above .600.
  • 2-13-1 ATS in last 16 games vs teams above .500.
  • 0-7-1 ATS in last 8 road games vs teams with winning home records.
  • Under is 5-1 in last 6 road games.
  • Over is 19-7 in last 26 games vs teams above .600.
  • Over is 5-2 in last 7 overall.
  • Under is 5-2 in last 7 vs teams above .500.

ROCKETS TRENDS

  • 1-4 ATS in last 5 games overall.
  • 0-4 ATS in last 4 games vs teams below .500.
  • 4-1 ATS in last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
  • Under is 4-1 in last 5 vs teams below .500.
  • Over is 5-2 in last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.

MATCHUP TRENDS

  • Under is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings in Houston.
  • Pistons are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Houston.
  • Pistons are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

PLAYER TRENDS

  • Clint Capela has scored the 1st basket in his last 3 Saturday games against East teams at Toyota Center.
  • Blake Griffin has 21+ points in his last 8 games against the Rockets at Toyota Center.
  • Derrick Rose has 4 assists or less in 5 of his last 6 games at Toyota Center.

WIN/LOSS

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
DET 10 15 7-6 3-9
HOU 17 8 9-3 8-5

SEASON POINTS +/- 

TEAM PPG OPPG DIFF TOT. AV
DET 108.7 108.8 -0.1 217.5
HOU 120.6 114.6 +6.0 235.2

PICKS ATS

 Spread Points   Result
Houston Over DET
-7.0 225.0 115-107

THE RUB

Houston will be heading home on a B2B with Westbrook set to miss due to load management. If Detroit can find a way to stop Harden, currently averaging 39.3 ppg, or match the Rocekts’ scoring output, they could get close.

OUR PICK  –  Over 225.0

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