Western Conference Finals – Game 5 Picks

Tonight’s Free NBA Playoff Picks

Western Conference Finals Picks – Game 5 – Golden State @ Houston, Toyota Center.

*Original betting lines and lineups taken game morning, adjust accordingly.

The original lines for each game are taken a couple of hours prior to the tip-off, so adjust your picks accordingly should a line change.

Confidence out of 1-5


Western Conference Finals – Game 5


Golden State @ Houston

  • Western Conference Final – Game 5
  • Series Tied 2-2

H2H Trends

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Houston.
Golden State are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Houston.

Season Series

GAME 4 Golden State Houston 92 : 95
GAME 3 Golden State Houston 126 : 85
GAME 2 Houston Golden State 127 : 105
GAME 1 Houston Golden State 106 : 119
21.01.18 Houston Golden State 116 : 108
05.01.18 Houston Golden State 114 : 124
18.10.17 Golden State Houston 121 : 122

Win/Loss 

TEAM W L HOME AWAY
Houston 65 17 34-7 31-10
Golden State 58 24 29-12 29-12

Season Points +/- 

TEAM PPG OPP PPG DIFF
Houston 112.4 103.9 +8.5
Golden State 113.5 107.5 +6.0

Picks against the spread

Spread O/U Points  Result
Houston Under Houston
+1.0 218.5 98-94

With a 10-point deficit heading into the 4th quarter and a 3-1 series hole, the Rockets came alive late, holding the Warriors to 12 last quarter points and reestablishing home-court advantage.

The Warriors held Houston to 39% shooting in Game 4 but gave up 34 points in the 2nd  quarter and 25 in the 4th, with defensive consistency an area of concern. Golden State had 16 turnovers and 3 for 18 shooting in the final quarter, with lack of ball movement un-Warriors like.

The Warriors will need Iguodala back on the defensive end, and a healthy Klay Thompson to suit up to stay in this one tonight.

Harden led all scorers in Game 4 with 30 points on an 11-for-26 shooting. CP3 added  27 points and four assists. PJ Tucker lived full-time on the glass grabbing 16 boards and zero points.

The number of free throws has decreased through the series as sides have made the required adjustments defensively.

When a Series is tied at 2-2, the Game 5 winner wins the series over 80% of the time, and with this in mind we expect a lift in defensive urgency, as we saw last night in a low scoring 96-83 Celtics win over the Cavs in their Game 5.

The Under is 6-1 in the Golden State’s last 7 and 4-0-1 in their last 5 after a loss. The Under is also 11-4 in Houston’s last 15 following a win and 15-7 in their last 22 at Toyota Center. But wait, there’s more, with the Under also 7-3 in the last 10 matchups between these two and 6-2 in the last 8 matchups in Houston.

Unders best.

Best Bet  =  Under 218.5   tickand Houston +1.0tick