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4 games tonight, betting poison on the horizon

*Original betting lines and lineups taken game morning, adjust accordingly.

Here are tonight’s free NBA picks. The original lines for each game are taken a couple of hours prior to the tip-off, so adjust your picks accordingly should a line change.

Confidence = 1-5 stars  

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OKC @ Milawaukee: OKC -1.5    

 

Tonight’s NBA Picks

Sacramento @ Indiana

H2H Trends –

  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
  • Sacramento are 6-2-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Indiana.
  • Sacramento are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Win/Loss 

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
Sacramento 1 5 0-3 1-2
Indiana 3 3 2-1 1-2

Season Points +/- 

TEAM PPG OPP PPG DIFF
Sacramento 96.0 105.0 -9.0
Indiana 111.2 112.0 -0.8

Picks against the spread

Spread O/U Points Result
Indiana Over Indiana
-5.5 210.0 101-83

Spread Confidence = 

The Kings have lost their last 4 and sit at the bottom of the Pacific Division, finding the going a little tough with a -9.0 PPG DIFF and a heavy reliance on Bogdanovic averaging 12.3 ppg, behind  De’Aaron Fox with lowly 12.8 ppg.

The Pacers have so far got a sweet deal in the PG13 / Oladipo trade, with Oladipa averaging 25.5 ppg.

This game is betting poison, and there’s really no other direction to go than with the home team, would like the line a little skinnier though.

Phoenix @ Brooklyn

H2H Trends –

  • Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Brooklyn.
  • Phoenix are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
  • Phoenix are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Brooklyn.

Win/Loss

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
Phoenix 2 4 2-2 0-2
Brooklyn 3 4 3-1 0-3

Season Points +/-

TEAM PPG OPP PPG DIFF
Phoenix 102.5 117.2 -14.7
Brooklyn 114.7 118.3 -3.6

Picks against the spread

Spread O/U Points Result
Brooklyn Over Phoenix
-4.0 229.5 122-124

 

Spread Confidence = 

Eric Bledsoe is currently sitting in the darkened basement of Talking Stick Resort Arena until he finds a new home and the Suns are all over the place, with the only shining light being Devon Booker with 20.5 ppg, 4.3 apg and 6.2 rpg (thanks on behalf of my fantasy team).

The Brooklyn Nets don’t have their first round draft pick until 2019, so tanking is not an option at this point.

With both teams ranking awful defensively, this should be a high scoring affair, with a H2H bet not worthwhile.

Overs all the way.

Oklahoma City @ Milwaukee

H2H Trends –

  • Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Milwaukee.
  • Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
  • OKC are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Milwaukee.

Win/Loss 

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
OKC 3 3 2-1 1-2
Milwaukee 4 2 2-2 2-0

Season Points +/- 

TEAM PPG OPP PPG DIFF
OKC 106.0 96.5 +9.5
Milwaukee 104.5 103.7 +0.8

Picks against the spread

Spread O/U Points Result
OKC Under OKC
-1.5 212.0 110-91

 

Confidence = 

The Big Three of Melo, PG13 and Russ is still yet to swing into 4th gear, and whether there is enough ball to go around is the big question, but signs were good last out in a 101-69 trouncing of the Bulls.

Stopping the Greek Freak will come down to PG13 tonight, and although we like the Bucks, there is just something in the air tonight about the Thunder rolling into this with confidence and a day’s break.

OKC at the line.

Detroit @ LA Lakers

H2H Trends –

  • Detroit are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles.
  • Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles.
  • Under is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings.

Win/Loss 

TEAM W L HOME ROAD
Detroit 5 2 2-1 3-1
LA Lakers 2 4 1-3 1-1

Season Points +/- 

TEAM PPG OPP PPG DIFF
Detroit 106.0 100.6 +5.4
LA Lakers 101.8 108.8 -7.0

Picks against the spread

Spread O/U Points Result
Detroit Over Lakers
-4.0 209.0 113-93

 

Spread Confidence = 

Lonzo is averaging 10 ppg, and leads LA in rebounds with 7.5 and in assists at 7.7. We are slowly warming to him. Slowly.

Detroit is slightly above average on both ends of the court and manage to share the scoring quite well, meaning that a quite night for one or two does not spell the end.

Lakers are rested while the Pistons are on a back-to back. Despite this we’ll take the Pistons at the line.

Another game with low betting confidence however.