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AFL Preliminary Finals Picks

September 23, 2016
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381564-joel-selwood

Expert Tipsters – James McLure, Marcus Thompson


*Note – Original odds/lines taken Thursday. 

AFL Prelim Finals Tips

Sydney @ Geelong

Friday, September 23rd, MCG – 7:50 PM

249px-Sydney_Swans_Logo.svg
Win Loss Position Ladder
17 5 1 1

$2.30

Geelong_Cats_logo
Win Loss Position Ladder
17 5 2 2

$1.65

Season Points +/-

Team PF PA DIFF
Sydney 101.0 66.8 +34.2
Geelong 101.6 70.6 +31.0

Last 5 Matchups

R16, 2016, Sydney 15.8 (98) d Geelong 9.6 (60) at Simonds Stadium

R19, 2015, Geelong 14.11 (95) d Sydney 9.9 (63) at Simonds Stadium

R7, 2015, Sydney 18.12 (120) d Geelong 11.11 (77) at the ANZ Stadium

R11, 2014, Sydney 22.16 (148) d Geelong 5.8 (38) at the SCG

R22, 2013, Geelong 13.14 (92) d Sydney 7.6 (48) at Simonds Stadium

Picks against the spread

Spread Spr/Pick O/U Points O/U Pick Result
Geelong_Cats_logo 249px-Sydney_Swans_Logo.svg afl_goalposts-128 2000px-PES-Red-Arrow.svg 249px-Sydney_Swans_Logo.svg
 -8.5  +8.5 172.5  172.5 97-60

The Say

After their 36 point qualifying final loss against upstart cross town rivals GWS, the Swans had a lot to prove against the Crows last week, and that they did.

Sydney came out on top with a 36 point win at the SCG against a Crows outfit that many thought may send out the once-where premiership favourites in straight sets.

Although they impressed the punters, it did come at a cost, with Sydney co-captain Jarrad McVeigh unlikely (old-man calf syndrome) and young forward Gary Rohan (knee) possibly out this week.

The Cats on the other end of the spectrum should be fresh as a daisy, having only taken to the field once over the last 27 days, a thrilling 2 point win over the Hawks in Final’s week 1.

A lot of the chat coming into this game has been regarding the benefits and downfalls of such a scarce schedule for the Cats, with opinions split both ways. Only time will tell the story there, however the Swans must take some confidence out of their 38 point away win at the Cattery in Round 16.

This one will be a battle of All-Australian studded midfields, with Scott Selwood likely going to Josh Kennedy. Dangerfield has the opportunity to become a club legend in his first year in Geelong, and if he can pull them over the line here there may be a new mayor of Geelong. Sorry Lingy.

We’ve been on the Swans all year, and it’s not stopping now. The Geelong freshness in our opinion does not bode well against a Swans team that crashed and bashed last week. If they can bring that aggression into the game here they will get the job done. Swans by 23 points, and great value at $2.30.

Safe Bet: Sydney +20.5 @$1.45

Feeling Lucky: Sydney 1-39 @$2.88

The Midfield Haymaker: Sydney -18.5 @$4.00


Western Bulldogs @ Greater Western Sydney

Saturday, September 24th, Spotless Stadium – 5:15 PM

West_bulldogs_logo14
Win Loss Position Ladder
15 7 7 7

$3.25

GWS_Giants_logo.svg
Win Loss Position Ladder
16 6 4 4

$1.36

Season Points +/- 

Team PF PA DIFF
Western B. 84.4 73.1 +11.3
GWS 108.2 75.6 +32.6

Last 5 Matchups

R9, 2016, GWS 15.8 (98) d Western Bulldogs 10.13 (73) at Spotless Stadium

R9, 2015, Western Bulldogs 16.17 (113) d GWS 11.2 (68) at Etihad Stadium

R23, 2014, GWS 18.7 (115) d Western Bulldogs 15.19 (109) at Etihad Stadium

R4, 2014, Western Bulldogs 17.8 (110) d GWS 12.11 (83) at Manuka Oval

R15, 2013, Western Bulldogs 13.9 (87) d GWS 12.11 (83) at Manuka Oval

Picks against the spread

Spread Spr/Pick O/U Points O/U Pick Result
GWS_Giants_logo.svg GWS_Giants_logo.svg afl_goalposts-128 2000px-PES-Red-Arrow.svg
-14.5  -14.5 167.5 167.5

The Say

The most exciting aspect of Saturday Night’s Prelim is the fact we won’t have to watch the Hawks get to another Grand Final, however we will also be treated with the two best young sides in the league.

We have the AFL love child in the Giants against the Bulldogs who have carried a never give up attitude throughout the entire season.

The Giants lose the mind and experience in Stevie J and welcome in Rhys Palmer which to us causes some concern if he is your 23rd best player. The Dogs lose ex-Hawk Suckling but have shown that their best 22 is whoever is on the field each week.

Both sides will go into the game without much finals experience and could show some early nerves. The decision of the pre finals Bye could get another run depending on the victor where the Dogs may have a slight advantage in continuous form while the Giants will have the fresh angle.

Ryan Griffen will be one to watch, facing the Bulldogs in the biggest game of his career, and the biggest of the Giants short existence.

The game will be very hard to tip, and we suggest the live betting option could get you better odds based on the first quarter performance of either side.

Giants at home with the fresh legs but could go either way. GWS by 13 points.

Safe Bet: GWS Giants H2H @$1.36

Feeling Lucky: GWS Giants 1-39 @$2.00

The Midfield Haymaker: Most Goals – Jonathon Patton @$5.00

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